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2024 Ambetter Health 400: NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Picks & Predictions

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What ever happened to rooting for the underdog? Despite popular belief, overcoming insurmountable odds to achieve greatness will never go out of style.

Perhaps nobody knows this better than Live Fast Motorsports. The single-car NASCAR Cup Series team was founded in 2020 by B.J. McLeod and Matt Tifft. McLeod, a renowned late-model driver, has had a long stint as both an owner and driver in various NASCAR series. Tifft, a long-time friend of McLeod, was a former Cup Series driver himself before a seizure and eventual brain tumor forced him to put his driving career on hold.

Anyone who has watched the Cups Series for the past several years is familiar with McLeod and his No. 78 team. Yes, they’re usually running towards the back, but that doesn’t define this organization.

I was a rookie NASCAR credentialed media member at the Pocono race this past summer. Within the lounge of reporters, photographers and on-air talent, the friendliest person in the room was the videographer for Team Live Fast.

Pre-race on the grid, as my colleague and I were just trying to act like we’d been there before, we naturally gravitated towards the No. 78 team. It was hard not to notice the genuine smile everyone from their organization had, despite damn well knowing that even a top-20 finish would be a tall task. We got to talking with a gentleman that we presumed was their public relations manager. Minutes into the conversation, he introduced himself as Matt Tifft.

The genuine conversation and overall hospitality shown by Team Live Fast were one of the highlights of our weekend. That’s why it was such a bummer to hear just months later that the team would sell their full-time charter and that Tifft would step away from the ownership group.

Still, the team has several races marked on the schedule, including this weekend, where they will re-join the field to take on Atlanta Motor Speedway. While I won’t have them on my betting card, I will certainly be rooting for the underdog - Live Fast Motorsports - because perhaps nobody loves racing more than them.

Bias checked at the door, here’s the data I considered for the Ambetter Health 400:

  • 2023 Atlanta I & II (Finishes, total speed rankings* & loop data*)
  • 2022 Atlanta I & II (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2024 Daytona 500 (Finishes, total speed rankings* & loop data*)
  • Other 2022-2023 Superspeedway results

*via ifantasyrace.com

Atlanta is another superspeedway-style race, meaning anything can happen.

However, we at least now have four races worth of data in its current configuration, plus last week’s Daytona 500 that we heavily factored into our betting card for the Ambetter Health 400.

2024 Ambetter Health 400: NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Picks & Predictions

Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook unless noted | 2024 Record: +10.5u

Top 5: William Byron (+240) | .5u

Momentum is at an all-time high in the No. 24 camp, coming off their Daytona 500 victory and returning to Atlanta Motor Speedway, where they’ve won two of the last four races. William Byron led the field in pass differential (+51) and was seventh in the total speed rankings last week.

He sits No. 2 in Atlanta’s Next Gen total speed rankings, leading 172 laps in that four-race span. His odds for a T5 not from our friends in Pittsburgh are as low as +140, so I’m jumping on +240 at BetRivers Sportsbook now.

I’m Chevy-heavy in general this week, yet I’m expecting the Fords to qualify out front. Once that happens, we should get a better value than +155 on Chevrolet to be the winning manufacturer. If that’s the case, I’ll likely be betting it and perhaps even Hendrick Motorsports as a whole.

Top 10: Kyle Busch (+115) | 1.5u

DraftKings Sportsbook’s odds for a Kyle Busch T10 are all the way down to -225. In that case, I’m hammering it at plus money (again, shoutout to BetRivers).

The only word you can describe the driver of the Richard Childress Racing (RCR) No. 8 Chevrolet in the 500 is “relentless.” No matter what unfortunate circumstances were thrown at him, he made his back up to the front. In fact, Busch was No. 2 in pass differential (+36), second in average running position (10.6), eighth in laps led (six) and - most importantly - No. 1 in driver rating.

Busch is a lowkey good plate racer in the Next Gen era, fishing with a T10 in five of nine races. He hasn’t necessarily ever had great speed at Atlanta since its reconfiguration, but he’s found it late and finished fifth and 10th, respectively, in his two starts there with RCR.

I like “Rowdy” in this placement market as a hedge for the 16-1 outright I’m down on.

Group C: Daniel Suarez (+380 via Caesars Sportsbook) | .5u

vs. Ty Gibbs (+250), Austin Cindric (+290), Alex Bowman (+360) & Michael McDowell (+360)

I typically avoid betting groups over four. However, Daniel Suarez should not have the longest odds in Group C on Caesars. Suarez was consistent all last weekend. The Mexican-born driver finished sixth in the Bluegreen Vacations Duel No. 1 and took the lead late in the 500 before ultimately getting caught up in “The Big One.” Still, Suarez was inside the top five in pass differential (+21) and 10th in the total speed rankings, by far the best of this group (Alex Bowman is next at 20th).

The Trackhouse Racing No. 99 Chevrolet has finished inside the top six in three of four races at Atlanta since it was reconfigured. Bowman and Austin Cindric will also be contenders, but I’ll take my shot on Saurez at nearly 4-1 odds to get the best of them.

Other Bets on My Card:

  • Kyle Busch Outright (16-1) | 1u
  • William Byron Outright (12-1) | .2u
  • John Hunter Nemechek T10 (+265) | .5u
  • John Hunter Nemechek Top Toyota (15-1 via Caesars)| .2u
  • Spire (-125) vs. Front Row via Caesars | .5u
  • Group E: Corey Lajoie (+255) | .5u

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media,  follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and connect on the BettingPros app @Between_SethFF.

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