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2024 American Express: First-Round Leader Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Grayson Murray claimed his second career PGA Tour victory Sunday at the Sony Open, outlasting Keegan Bradley and Byeong Hun An in a three-way playoff. Cam Davis was atop the leaderboard when play concluded on Thursday, so congrats if you backed him as first round leader. With Hawaii in the rear view mirror, the tour moves back to the mainland this week for the American Express in La Quinta, California. It’s a bit of a unique format this week. For those not familiar, the tournament will be played on three separate courses over the first three days before the field is cut to the top 65 and ties.

That means golfers will be on three different courses Thursday, and FanDuel has split their board accordingly with first round leader odds separated by course. Historically, La Quinta Country Club plays the easiest of the three, while the Nicklaus Tournament course and Stadium Course traditionally have been harder to navigate. Let’s take a look at the golfers we like best to go low in the opening round.

2024 American Express Best First-Round Leader Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Matti Schmid (33-1)

The University of Louisville product made his first appearance at the American Express in 2023 and he looked very comfortable. Schmid opened with a 64 on his way to a T6 finish. A native of Germany, Schmid splits his time between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. The 26-year old will tee it up on the Nicklaus Tournament course Thursday and while he has yet to win on either tour, Schmid has the game to be the low man on the Nicklaus course Thursday.

Davis Thompson (33-1)

Another youngster who undoubtedly feels comfortable here is Thompson. Just 24 years old, Thompson will be making his 45th career start on tour after a stellar college career at the University of Georgia. A future star in the making, Thompson finished just one shot back of 2023’s American Express champion, Jon Rahm. The Atlanta native will tee it up on the easiest of the three courses and is worth backing as the low man at La Quinta.

Sam Burns (20-1)

If you’d rather go with a more proven option for La Quinta, look no further than Burns. Just 27 years old, Burns already has a handful of PGA Tour titles under his belt. The LSU alum will be making his fifth career start at the American Express, with three top-20 finishes. Burns posted four consecutive rounds in the 60s this past week on his way to a T33 finish to start his 2024 season and should continue that trend as the tour makes its west coast swing.

We’re going to start something new this week and list a handful of other golfers to consider for first round leader bets in an effort to give you more options to consider. This week that list consists of Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau (La Quinta), Sungjae Im (Nicklaus), and JT Poston (Stadium).

Best of luck and let’s cash some tickets!

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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