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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: First-Round Leader Odds, Picks & Predictions

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It’s been the year of the longshot on the PGA Tour in 2024. With nine events in the books, Jake Knapp (40-1) at the Mexico Open was the winner with the shortest odds to date.

That trend seems poised to change this week as the fourth of eight signature events is on tap at Bay Hill Country Club, the site of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A limited field of 69 players will tee it up on Thursday. The majority of the field will play the weekend, but there is a cut. The top 50 and ties after Friday’s second round will advance.

Those who make the cut will face difficult conditions, as the wind is expected to pick up quite a bit on Saturday and Sunday in Orlando, Fla. It will be important for the best in the world to get off to a hot start if they want to be in contention down the stretch on Sunday.

Who will capitalize on relatively benign conditions early in the week? Here’s who I think has the best chance to do just that in the opening round.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best First-Round Leader Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Viktor Hovland (22-1)

The reigning FedEx Cup champion is back in action for the first time since a T-19 finish at the Genesis Invitational three weeks ago. The 26-year-old will be making his sixth career start at Bay Hill. After three years of grinding it out around this track, Viktor Hovland finally found his way into contention in 2022, coming up just one shot short, losing to world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. The Oklahoma State alum followed up that near miss with a T-10 finish last year, just four shots off eventual champion Kurt Kitayama’s pace. Hovland seems to have figured out Bay Hill, and coming off a couple of weeks of rest, the Norwegian should get out of the gates hot. This is a really nice number in a limited field for Hovland.

Jason Day (35-1)

It seems pretty clear that Jason Day’s back issues are under control for now. While back injuries are tricky and can flare up again anytime, the Australian seems to be in fantastic shape. The 36-year-old already has three top-10 finishes in five starts this year. In two of those, Day posted first-round scores of 65. A winner here in 2016 before the noted back issues led to a pair of WDs, Day rebounded last year with a T-10 finish. All signs point to Day being in contention again in 2024, and if that happens, he’ll come out and post a low number on Thursday.

Chris Kirk (45-1)

38-year-old Chris Kirk is enjoying a resurgence in 2024. The University of Georgia alum opened the year with a win at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. A final-round 65 last week at the Cognizant Classic has to have Kirk feeling good about his game. A grisled veteran here at Bay Hill, the Atlanta native will be making his 12th start at the API, with two straigh top-10 finishes the last two seasons. This is great value for a golfer who is in excellent form, has solid recent course history and knows how to win on the PGA Tour.

This week’s list of others to consider are Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Cameron Young.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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