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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Picks: Head-to-Head Matchups

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The PGA Tour has been taking a lot of heat over the past few weeks thanks to leaderboards that have lacked big names and longshot winners. That all changes this week with the fourth of eight elevated events on tap. A limited field of 69 golfers, most of whom are household names, will descend upon Bay Hill Club in Orlando, Fla., for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While eight-time winner Tiger Woods won’t be teeing it up on Thursday, plenty of the world’s best will be in attendance.

Bay Hill is traditionally one of the toughest tests on Tour, with over 100 bunkers and water in play on half of the 18-hole, 7,466-yard course. Avoiding trouble and scrambling out of difficult situations will be paramount if the world’s best want to be in contention this week. The winds are also expected to increase over the weekend, making it crucial to get off to a good start.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Head-to-Head Matchup Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Last Week 1-2-0 | Season 10-7-1

Jason Day vs. Sam Burns

You could argue that no golfer has gotten off to a better start this season than Sam Burns. Outside of The Sentry Tournament of Champions, Burns has four top-10 finishes in four starts. The Louisiana native ranks in the top 10 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Total. He is also 14th in SG: Putting and best on Tour in Scrambling. All those numbers point to what should be another successful week for the seventh-year pro, but Bay Hill has not been kind to Burns. The LSU alum has managed just one top-10 finish in six starts here, with a pair of missed cuts.

On the other side of this matchup is Australian Jason Day. The 36-year-old seems to have shaken off the back troubles that plagued him in recent years. The veteran has back-to-back top-10 finishes in his last two starts and has a much better track record at the API. A former winner here, Day posted a T-10 finish last year, is 15th in SG: Total and fourth on Tour in Putting Average. Day is a slight lean here as the underdog in this matchup, with a plus number by his name.

The Pick: Jason Day (+105)

Cameron Young vs. Tommy Fleetwood

This matchup features two golfers whose games are heating up just like the weather. Tommy Fleetwood is in that conversation of “best golfer to not have a Major Championship.” The 33-year-old has won eight times internationally and has six top-five finishes in Majors. Fleetwood has three starts on the PGA Tour this season, with his latest performance resulting in a T-10 at the Genesis Invitational. The 14-year pro had performed well at Bay Hill Club in the past until last year, when he posted a paltry T-61.

Cameron Young has been hot. The Wake Forest product has three straight finishes of T-16 or better and nearly stole the Cognizant Classic last week with a final-round 66, finishing just a few shots back of champion Austin Eckroat. The New York native is 15th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season and seems to like Bay Hill Club, finishing T-13 and T-10 in his only two appearances here. At even money, Young feels like a solid choice.

The Pick: Cameron Young (+100)

Tom Kim vs. Keegan Bradley

The last name Kim is hot in the golf world right now, but it’s not Tom Kim who is garnering all the attention. That would be Anthony Kim and his return to professional golf after a decade away from the game.

Tom Kim hopes to change that this week with a solid performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The problem is that his form is not where it needs to be. The South Korean has one top-20 finish in six starts this season and is 120th in SG: Total. In his only appearance here, the 21-year-old shot even par for the week and finished T-34.

Keegan Bradley, on the other hand, loves it at Bay Hill Club. The Vermont native has three straight finishes of T-11 or better at the API. Bradley lost in a playoff to Grayson Murray at The Sony Open in Hawaii and finished T-11 at the rain-shortened Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month. Bradley finished top-10 in the FedEx Cup standings a year ago, and the 37-year-old has shown no signs of slowing down. As a slight favorite, the smart money is on Bradley this week.

The Pick: Keegan Bradley (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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