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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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We were sadly shut out at the Cognizant Classic last week after a promising start through 36 holes. The weather turned a normally difficult course soft, introducing some new golfers to the fold whom I didn’t expect to contend. No worries, that’s golf betting in a nutshell. The next couple of weeks hold some awesome opportunities to rob the books blind.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a signature event this season, meaning only 69 golfers will compete for a gigantic prize purse. Defending champion Kurt Kitayama brought home the biggest win of my life last year at 250-1 odds. The pride of Northern California is going off with a lot more respect this week, as well. This event normally sees the top golfers in the world duking it out at Arnie’s place in Orlando, Fla.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bay Hill boasts some of the toughest scoring conditions on the PGA Tour, with winning cards averaging around 10-under par. Longer hitters do have a slight advantage, but the overall sense is that accuracy is still paramount. This is especially true on approach to these large-complex and lightning-fast Bermuda greens. Errant shots are met with Draconian consequences unless the golfer can scramble like Houdini as Kitayama did on the weekend in 2023.

The track stretches to nearly 7,500 yards, and most of the real scoring opportunities present themselves on the four par-5 holes. The par-3s are absolutely brutal, each stretching beyond 190 yards. Salvaging par on most holes is an excellent result, so I’m targeting players who are savvy at avoiding bogeys or worse. With a signature red cardigan emblazoned with a multicolored umbrella, let’s tee off.

Viktor Hovland

I love Scottie Scheffler at Bay Hill. He is not a smart bet at +700. Rory McIlroy is next and is still too short for his recent form, especially with wedges. Viktor Hovland nearly chased down Kitayama on Sunday last year and settled for a tie for second place. He has been excellent at this event since his chipping improved dramatically over the last few years. He is a true grinder who can also make birdies in bunches in the toughest conditions.

Picks: Outright +1600 [1u]; Top-5 +360 [1u]

Justin Thomas

I predicted that Justin Thomas would enjoy an awesome comeback season in 2024. He is in very sharp form after a disappointing campaign in 2023. He is as well-rounded throughout the key metrics as anyone in this field, ranking fourth in my model. Thomas is a spectacular iron player and lethal with a wedge in his hand. With how well he gains strokes on par-4 and par-5 holes, it would be a shock if he wasn’t at least in contention at Bay Hill.

Picks: Outright +2800 [0.5u]; Top-10 +260 [1u]

Will Zalatoris

From tee to green, there has never been any doubt that Will Zalatoris is among the world’s best. Before his back surgery last year, his only hindrance to complete dominance was a balky putter. He has rectified that in a big way in recent events, lending confidence that he will easily outplay his odds this week. “Willy Z” just needs to avoid the implosion holes and keep his head above water to stay in the mix.

Picks: Outright +3000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +280 [1u]

Kurt Kitayama

Our defending champion’s odds continue to tumble from an opening 55-1 line. It’s still a far cry from last year’s 250-1 “How are you even here?” line, but I love his chances again. Kitayama is the quintessential grinder, ranking sixth in this field in bogey avoidance and third in scrambling over his last 24 rounds. He is also one of the best in the world on approach shots of over 175 yards, many of which are at Bay Hill. The tougher the challenge, the stronger the form we see from Kitayama. You don’t have to be a NorCal homer to like his chances.

Picks: Outright +7500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +550 [0.5u]; Top-20 +210 [1u]

Austin Eckroat

Despite the superstition in golf betting, there is no rule against placing a wager on last week’s winner to keep his hot streak rolling. Austin Eckroat was dominant at the Cognizant Classic. He torched PGA National with all four rounds under 68 and brought home a convincing victory. A lot of the same focal points are in play this week, including ball-striking where Eckroat is 14th in this stacked field. Some golf fans are bemoaning the lack of big names at the top of PGA Tour leaderboards this season. What if the no-names are just new names attached to future stars of the sport? Bet on Eckroat to keep sizzling.

Picks: Outright +9000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +240 [0.5u]

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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