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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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The fourth Signature Event of the 2024 PGA Tour season is set to get underway from Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Resort & Lodge in Orlando, Florida on Thursday morning.

Due to the status of this Signature Event, only 69 of the best golfers on the PGA Tour qualified based on a variety of factors. There will still be a cut-line enforced after the first two rounds, along with any golfer who is within 10 strokes of the lead or tied in the top 50 following the conclusion of Friday’s second round at Bay Hill.

Bay Hill is a par 72 course featuring Bermudagrass on all surfaces, with up to 13 feet measured on putting velocity via Stimpmeter. Three-inch rough stands much taller than we saw at PGA National during Cognizant last week, which means ball-striking off the tee and on approach becomes imperative.

Putting also is crucial, since the elevated green speeds will require precision with the flat stick. Since we’re in Florida, naturally, almost every hole has a water hazard of some sort to navigate. An even distribution of par 3s and par 5s will create a lot of movement on the leaderboard, which has featured winning scores of -9-under-par or higher in three of the past four events.

Matt MacKay returns to share analysis on a few golfers with longshot odds who are worth wagering in the outright betting market ahead of Thursday's opening tee times from the Sunshine State. Make sure to follow Matt on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and insights.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .25u and .10 u, or 0.25% and 0.10% of your betting bankroll. Odds used exclusively from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300)

Matt Fitzpatrick has been amongst the most consistent performers at Bay Hill throughout the years. The Englishman has recorded finishes of T14, T9, T10, T9, and 2nd since 2019. His stats aren’t dazzling, however, Fitzpatrick does rank 21st at birdie conversion percentage and 38th in putting average. He’s 12th or better on par 3 and par 5 holes, which comprise half of the course, plus he’s 37th in consecutive fairways hit.

This feels like the time where Fitzpatrick can piece it all together on a difficult course to break through against a tough field like he’s done during previous wins. +3300 is good value to acquire, so let’s stake 0.25 units on Fitzpatrick to earn his third career win on the PGA Tour at Bay Hill this weekend.

Jason Day (+3500)

Aussie Jason Day won at Bay Hill during the 2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational, while showing us that he’s still capable of performing on the big stage with a win at AT&T Byron Nelson last year. Since missing the cut at Farmers, Day has gone T6 at Pebble Beach and 9th at Genesis. Now, with a couple of weeks to rest and prepare, he should be locked in for another quality weekend at Bay Hill.

Day’s recent finishes here include T10, T31, and T22, excluding a couple of withdrawals. Ranked inside the top 50 for strokes gained approaching the green and sixth strokes gained around the green, Day’s putting is the only thing holding him back from contending for outright wins in both previous events that he’s played this season. Tee-to-green, he’s 12th, while quietly sitting at fifth in birdie or better conversion percentage and fourth for putting average. Another 0.25 unit should be staked on Day to earn his 14th career win and second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational based on his current form and comfort level at this event.

Will Zalatoris (+3500)

We’re sticking in the 35/1 odds range to target Will Zalatoris. We almost hit on him at 60/1 during the Genesis Invitational but Hideki Matsuyama had other plans, going on an absolute heater to close out the final round, holding Zalatoris to a T2 finish at -14-under-par. This was his last event played and with a couple of weeks to rest and prepare for Bay Hill, the 27-year-old should be prepared to dominate once again.

Zalatoris has one career win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in 2022, however, he’s also logged five runner-up finishes in 69 events, most recently at Genesis. His approach game is excellent, ranking 15th strokes gained approaching the greens, while also sitting at 21st strokes gained tee-to-green. Zalatoris is another golfer who performs well on par 3 and par 5 holes, ranking inside the top 50 for both, plus he’s 26th in bogey avoidance.

The flat stick hasn’t been sharp enough this season, however, Zalatoris’ previous finishes at Bay Hill include a T10 in 2021, so he’s more than capable of returning value with 0.25 units staked at +3500 in the outright betting market.

Keegan Bradley (+6000)

We’re wrapping up with another highly-decorated PGA Tour winner by staking 0.10 units on Keegan Bradley. The six-time winner did miss the cut at Genesis during his last event, but there’s little doubt he’s prepared for a strong bounce-back effort at Bay Hill this week.

While Bradley has yet to record a T10 finish, with his best effort resulting in a T11 at Pebble Beach, he’s certainly worth investing in during this event. Bradley logged a T10 finish here in 2021, T11 in 2022, and T10 in 2023. After an awful +5 outing in the second round at this event last year, Bradley responded with a -5-under-par finish in the final round to surge up the leaderboard.

Ranked 39th strokes gained on approach and 60th strokes gained off-the-tee, Bradley is a complete golfer without a ton of flaws to pick apart. He’s also 30th strokes gained tee-to-green and 10th in total driving efficiency. Bradley also finds greens in regulation at a 73 percent rate, which is top-20 on the PGA Tour. With four par 3s available, Bradley should excel, as he’s 16th in par 3 scoring average this season. +6000 is too long to ignore, so let’s stake our final 0.10 unit wager on him to return to the winning podium at a course where he’s confident.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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