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2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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One of the most scenic and iconic golf courses on the annual PGA Tour circuit will be the site for this week’s event, as 80 players gather to play the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It’s the first time we’ve seen Pebble Beach be a Signature Event, meaning there won’t be a cut line enforced. It also represents the quality of the field this week, with the top 80 players competing based on last year’s finishing rank, outright wins, and of course, current form through four events in 2024.

So far, we’ve had nothing but longshot winners come through, as Matthieu Pavon drilled a difficult approach shot out of the rough and across the water to finish with a birdie, beating Nicolai Højgaard by a stroke at -13-under-par. Here’s a brief recap of the longshot odds that have come through as winners on the PGA Tour this season. Starting with Chris Kirk at +12500 during Sentry, Grayson Murray at +30000 for the Sony Open, amateur Nick Dunlap at The American Express, and just last Saturday, Pavon well past +10000.

Can this epic streak of longshot winners continue at what projects to be a rain-soaked weekend at Pebble Beach? Players will alternate between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach during the first two rounds while playing exclusively at Pebble Beach on Saturday and Sunday. Pebble Beach is infamous for its tiny greens, measuring 3,500 square feet on average. This translates to a ball striker’s paradise, especially since it can mask poor putting due to the small size of the Poa Annua greens. Coastal winds and rain, along with over 100 sand bunkers, will be the primary defense, plus the rough has grown out an inch. However, the fairways are much wider here than at Torrey Pines, so the primary challenge will be hitting greens in regulation and scrambling.

That said, let’s highlight a few players with lucrative odds who are considered by oddsmakers to be a longshot to take the winning podium at Pebble Beach on Sunday. If one of these hits, we’ll enjoy a nice payout to end the weekend.

2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .25u and .10 u, or 0.25% and 0.10% of your betting bankroll.

Beau Hossler (+6500)

Last year at Pebble Beach, Beau Hossler wound up going T11, finishing -8-under-par across the final two rounds. Yes, the field is more loaded this year, but Hossler has been steady with his irons, ranking 10th in strokes gained approaching the green. A T6 at Farmers shows that the 28-year-old is heating up, plus, he’s 15th in strokes gained around the green, and third in strokes gained putting.

If Hossler can overcome his lone deficiency in strokes gained off-the-tee, we have a great chance of cashing his +6500 odds in the outright PGA Tour betting market this weekend. Let’s stake 0.25 units on Hossler to win.

Kevin Yu (+11000)

25-year-old Kevin Yu has followed up his missed cut at the Sony Open with back-to-back T10 finishes, going T3 at The American Express and T6 at Farmers this past weekend. Yu also performed well at Pebble Beach in 2023, going -4-under-par in the opening round, while saving his best effort for last, winding up -5-under-par during the final round, surging into a T7 finish.

Yu ranks third in strokes gained off-the-tee, while also currently 48th in strokes gained putting. His approach game and strokes gained around the green are awful though, so we should only wager 0.1 units on Yu, which is still a nice investment at +11000 odds.

Brendon Todd (+11000)

In 2023, Brendon Todd finished T2, three strokes behind winner Justin Rose, although Todd went a blistering -7-under-par in the final round. The 38-year-old American hasn’t finished higher than T30 in either The Sentry or the Sony Open events, but he’s now had time off to rest and prepare for Pebble Beach.

Todd ranks 24th in strokes gained approaching the green, while also sitting inside the top 60 in strokes gained around the green and putting. He’s among the worst golfers in strokes gained off-the-tee though, so he’ll need to sharpen that part of his game up to avoid playing out of bunkers and rough for the majority of the tournament. A 0.10 unit wager on Todd to win Pebble Beach at +11000 feels right, especially since he’s due, riding a five-year win drought.

Mark Hubbard (+20000)

Finally, at +20000 odds in the PGA Tour outright betting market, we have Mark Hubbard. He’s a screaming value at this number. Last year, Hubbard went -7-under-par in the final two rounds at Pebble Beach, climbing into a T20 finish, despite starting +1. We haven’t seen Hubbard near the top of the leaderboard in 2024, although he did just rip off his best outing of the season at Farmers, winding up T20 after only going -1-under-par in the middle rounds.

Hubbard ranks eighth in strokes gained approaching the green, which is a huge edge to hold at this number in the outright betting market. His putter has been mediocre, ranked 63rd in strokes gained, but at Pebble Beach, finding the green in regulation can counter a streaky flat stick. Hubbard also is 43rd in hole proximity, which is huge on these tiny Poa Annua greens. Let’s stake 0.10 units on Hubbard at +20000 to earn his first career win on the PGA Tour at Pebble Beach this weekend.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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