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2024 Australian Open Men’s Final Odds & Picks (Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev)

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In many ways, this has arguably been the most entertaining Australian Open of all-time. We have seen more deciding-set matches in this Australian Open than at any other major ever. More specific to the Men’s Draw, the Opening Round’s 20 five-set matches were tied for the second-most of all-time, and this year’s Australian Open broke the record for most five-set matches in the history of this Grand Slam. Lastly, the nine men’s fifth-set tiebreakers is tied for the most all-time at any Major. As a result of the long matches, the amount of matchups that lasted four or more hours is the second-most all-time at any Grand Slam event.

It is only fitting that the final for such a historic tournament produced even more history with two intense semifinal matchups. As ESPN’s Chris McKendry pointed out, this is the first Australian Open without a member of the “Big Three” (Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal) since 2005, as Jannik Sinner impressively ended Djokovic’s 33-match Australian Open winning streak in a four-set semifinal victory. Sinner is now the youngest player (22 years old) to reach the final of the Australian Open since 2008.

We are destined to crown a first-time Australian Open champion this weekend, as Daniil Medvedev seeks revenge for finishing runner-up in 2021 and 2022. Whoever wins between Sinner and Medvedev will join Novak Djokovic (2008) and Stan Wawrinka (2014) as the only men’s players to win their maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open since 2003.

2024 Australian Open Men’s Final Odds & Picks

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2024 Men’s Australian Open finals.

2024 Men’s Australian Open Final Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • Moneyline: Sinner (-260), Medvedev (+210)
  • Spread: Sinner -4.5 games (-120), Medvedev +4.5 games (+100)
  • Total: Over 38.5 games (-110), Under 38.5 games (-110)

2024 Men’s Australian Open Final Picks & Predictions

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Daniil Medvedev has been playing with fire this entire tournament, as he entered the semifinals as one of three players in the Men’s Draw to eke out a win after being down two sets to none. He did it again against Alexander Zverev, and among his six victories to this point, three have been in five sets versus just one straight-set victory. By comparison, Jannik Sinner has been the much more dominant player, as he entered the semifinals as the only player of the four to win all 15 of his sets up to that point. Sinner also had an opportunity to dispatch the World No. 1 in straight sets as well, but he hit an errant forehand on match point in the third set, and Djokovic eventually won in a tiebreaker 8-6.

Medvedev will still be a popular underdog play given his Grand Slam finals experience, especially in this Major, while facing a 22-year-old competing in his first final. In addition, many will point to the 6-3 head-to-head edge the Russian has over the Italian as reasons why his +210 moneyline odds are enticing. However, Sinner’s three victories against Medvedev have come in each of their last three matches last year, with a straight-set victory at Beijing and two three-set victories at Vienna and the Nitto ATP Finals. All of those matches were on hard courts, and even if Sinner had not had great success recently against Medvedev, we would have been willing to forego that considering how well he has played of late.

You know a player is in peak form when he has beaten the World No. 1 three times in the last nine weeks. Djokovic had won 39 of his previous 40 Grand Slam matches overall dating back to 2022, and Sinner was the only player to beat him multiple times in that span. Per TennisTV’s Bastien Fachan, Sinner made history by joining Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal as the only players to beat Djokovic at a Grand Slam, at the Davis Cup, and at the ATP Finals level. Now Sinner is 26-2 since the 2023 US Open, and if there are any doubts how a youngster will handle this stage against an elite player, take a look at how he has performed against players ranked in the top five of late.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Sinner’s dominant semifinal victory over Djokovic was that he did not allow arguably the best returner of serve in the history of the sport to get a look at a single break point. Sinner’s serve has been so dominant throughout this six-match run that the number of matches where he has not allowed his opponent a break point equals the number of times his serve has been broken altogether (two).

If Sinner continues to serve at this level, it is unlikely that Medvedev will win a set early, and the Italian has beaten the Russian in tiebreaks in each of the first sets they have played in their last two matches. There are many reasons to be confident in Sinner winning the first two sets of this match, as he has done in all six matches up to this point. Thus, this prediction comes down to whether or not we believe Sinner will slam the door shut on Medvedev after getting up early, something that Zverev and Emil Ruusuvuori could not do.

Medvedev has failed to cover the game spread in six of his previous seven completed ATP main draw matches. And in each of his five-set matches to this point, he has lost at least one set by a score of 6-3 or worse, suggesting he is due for a clunker which has a significant impact on the game spread. Even if Sinner does give away a set, it will be difficult to beat him in anything but a tiebreaker given how well he is serving, and the rest advantage and fresher legs will have more of an impact on this match the longer it goes.

Pick: Sinner -4.5 games (-120 on DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01

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