2024 Australian Open Men’s Semifinal Picks & Predictions
The Women’s Draw at this year’s Australian Open was chock full of upsets, as evidenced by the fact that one semifinal pitted a No. 12 seed against a qualifier. Comparatively, the Men’s Draw was much chalkier and stayed true to seeding, as the top six men’s seeds all reached the Australian Open quarterfinals for the first time in the Open Era. Taylor Fritz was the lowest-seeded player to break through at No. 12, which meant we were in for some thrilling quarterfinal action. And now that the semifinals are set with two mouth-watering matchups, we should be in for some entertaining tennis over the weekend.
Novak Djokovic is searching for his 25th Grand Slam title and fifth straight in his last five times competing at the Australian Open. He faces Jannik Sinner, who broke through to his second Major semifinal after reaching that round at Wimbledon last year.
On the other side, Daniil Medvedev is searching for his third Australian Open finals appearance after finishing runner-up in 2021 and 2022. He faces Alexander Zverev, who has only made one Grand Slam final prior to this year (2020 US Open) and lost in his only semifinal appearance at the Australian Open four years ago.
Are we destined for a final of the two previous Grand Slam champions Djokovic and Medvedev, or can Sinner and Zverev crash the party for the biggest wins of their careers to date?
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2024 Men’s Australian Open semifinals.
2024 Men’s Australian Open Semifinal Picks & Predictions
(odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
The backdrop for this first semifinal could not be any more appealing, as Djokovic is trying to add to his record total of Grand Slam titles, while Sinner is looking to take that next step in his career and reach his first-ever Major final. If the early rounds of this tournament are any indication of Sinner’s chances, one has to be extremely enticed by his moneyline odds, even if Djokovic has won 33 consecutive matches at the Australian Open.
Sinner is the only men’s player not to have dropped a set this entire tournament. He enters in great form, going 25-2 since last year’s US Open, with the only losses in that span coming to Ben Shelton and Djokovic. Djokovic has beaten Sinner in each of their head-to-head Grand Slam matchups. However, both were at Wimbledon. Sinner is a much more seasoned player since then, while Djokovic should, in theory, have slowed down somewhat since then at age 36. Sinner will bring confidence into this matchup from his three-set victory over Djokovic in the Davis Cup semifinals on indoor hard courts. We know Djokovic will not go away easily in this match, having won at least one set in 33 of his previous 34 completed Grand Slam main draw matches.
For those bettors that do not want to live as dangerously in backing this matchup, we would advise wagering on Sinner’s +3.5 game spread, as Djokovic is 1-5 in covering the game spread in his last six ATP main draw matches. However, we are taking a flier on Sinner’s moneyline odds, and expect him to break through and end Djokovic’s long Australian Open winning streak, especially since the World No. 1 has won just two of his first five matches of this tournament in straight sets.
Bet: Jannik Sinner ML (+170)
Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev
To say that Zverev’s four-set quarterfinal victory over World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz was impressive is an understatement. Zverev cruised to a 6-1 first-set victory after losing just two points on serve and fought off two break points en route to a 6-3 second-set win. However, arguably the most impressive part of the victory was how he responded to losing a third-set tiebreak, keeping his composure and wrapping up the match in four sets. In the tiebreak up 2-1, Zverev lost his next two service points on electric forehand passes by Alacraz, and the Spaniard was brimming with confidence after winning the final six points of the tiebreak. Even the television announcers, namely John McEnroe, declared that Alcaraz should be the favorite at that point, even though he was down two sets to one. However, Zverev took all the air out of Alcaraz’s momentum in the fourth set by dominating on his serve, landing 28 of his 32 first-serve opportunities. In all, he saved three of five break-point opportunities while breaking Alcaraz seven times in total.
Zverev and Medvedev have met 18 times in their careers, with the Russian holding an 11-7 edge, including winning five of the previous six matchups dating back to Indian Wells last year. Medvedev’s last three victories in this rivalry have been by straight sets, but he has shown his flaws in this tournament, being one of the only men’s players to rally back from an 0-2 set deficit to win.
This is their first-ever meeting at a Grand Slam. We trust Zverev to work his way out of trouble if Medvedev continues to dominate early, as Zverev’s fitness over a five-set match should make the difference. Zverev’s victory over Alcaraz was his first win over a top-five player at a Grand Slam (he had been 0-10 in such matches previously), and his work is not done yet.
Zverev might be 1-5 in his career in Grand Slam semifinals. Still, the way he stayed calm and composed throughout the Alcaraz match (especially after losing the third set when he was serving for the match) suggests this is his time for his biggest breakthrough at a Major.
Bet: Alexander Zverev ML (+125)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01