2024 Australian Open Odds, Picks & Predictions: Carlos Alcaraz

For the second time in the last three years, Novak Djokovic won three of the four majors in a calendar year, and he started that run of dominance at the Australian Open. Djokovic cashed for bettors who were willing to back him at short +110 pre-tournament odds, and his odds are short once again, considering he has won each of the previous four Australian Opens he has participated in (Djokovic was ineligible in 2022 after not being vaccinated against COVID-19).

The odds leaderboard was altered slightly after Rafael Nadal was thought to be ready to make his return to the first Grand Slam of the year after winning it in 2022, but he withdrew after suffering a hip injury and a small muscle tear in Brisbane and is focused on rest and rehabbing to be back in time for the French Open.

Stan Wawrinka is the only other men’s player in the field with an Australian Open title to his name, but that came back in 2014. Can anyone else win their maiden Australian Open title, or is Djokovic winning a record 11th a mere formality? Let’s take a look at our picks and predictions for Carlos Alcaraz.

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2024 Australian Open Best Bets & Picks: Carlos Alcaraz

Prediction: World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz makes his first Australian Open appearance since 2022 after missing last year’s event due to a hamstring injury he suffered in practice. Alcaraz has lost in the second and third rounds in his only two previous Australian Open appearances, with the latter being the only five-set loss (he lost in a fifth-set tiebreaker to eventual semifinalist Matteo Berrettini) of his career. Alcaraz is one of the few players to claim wins at the ATP’s three biggest hard-court events (Miami-2022, US Open-2022, Indian Wells-2023). And per OptaAce, his success at the four Grand Slams last year was nearly unparalleled, as his 89.5% winning percentage was the second-highest of all-time in the Open Era among players under 21 years of age. Alcaraz is 45-9 (.833) on outdoor hard courts over the last two seasons, and while he is known as a clay-court specialist, that winning percentage is not far off from his numbers on clay (88%) in that span.

Betting Advice & Pick: Alcaraz only played 17 tournaments last season, and with every other player in the top five of the ATP rankings except for Djokovic playing more matches than him in 2023, his fresh legs are a big reason we are backing his +350 odds at DraftKings to win his first Australian Open and third overall Grand Slam.

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