The two semifinal matches in the Women’s Draw of the Australian Open are polar opposites, as one matchup was expected and something most predicted, while the other is a meeting of two first-time Grand Slam semifinalists.
Many will view the semifinal between Cori Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka as the de facto final, as they are each Grand Slam champions who get set for a rematch of the last major final when Gauff beat Sabalenka at the US Open. It is certainly a heavyweight matchup, as Gauff has not lost in 2024 and enters on a 12-match Grand Slam winning streak, while Sabalenka has won 12 straight matches at the Australian Open, and has not yet dropped a set in her run to the semifinals.
In the other semifinal, No. 12 seed Qinwen Zheng faces unseeded Dayana Yastremska. Prior to this year, Zheng had made it past the fourth round in just one of her previous eight Grand Slam appearances, and had two second round exits in each of her first two times playing at the Australian Open. Meanwhile, Yastremska became the second woman ever to reach the semifinals of the Australian Open as a qualifier, and is the first to do so since 1978.
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2024 Women’s Australian Open semifinals.
2011 – Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka will be the first Women's Singles US Open previous finalists to face each other at the Australian Open since Kim Clijsters and Vera Zvonareva in 2011. Remake.#AUSOPEN | @AustralianOpen @WTA @WTA_insider pic.twitter.com/liCa4xNliK
— OptaAce (@OptaAce) January 23, 2024
2024 Women’s Australian Open Semifinal Picks & Predictions
(odds via DraftKings)
Cori Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction
Gauff and Sabalenka have been the two most dominant players in the field thus far, as they are the only women to have reached the quarterfinal without dropping a set. But while Gauff improved to 10-0 and has won 20 of 22 sets played in 2024, she had an underwhelming quarterfinal performance against Marta Kostyuk which should have her concerned and needing to re-focus entering this matchup with the reigning Australian Open champion.
Gauff’s serve was broken seven times by Kostyuk, as she double faulted nine times and made just 53% of her first serves. In addition, Kostyuk at times dared Gauff to beat her with her forehand, and she produced an underwhelming five winners in the first set and seven in the second even though each went to tiebreaks. Gauff’s saving grace against Kostyuk was that she got a look at 22 break point chances, and her opponent landed an even worse 50% of her first serves. The same cannot be expected of Sabalenka, who only lost 11 games in her first four matches at the Australian Open this year, and was broken just once in four chances in that span (she allowed Barbora Krejcikova to convert two of four break point chances).
One could argue there is no edge in the experience factor, as Gauff is now playing in the second week of a Major for the tenth time in her career, while Sabalenka has now reached her sixth straight Major semifinal.
Just based on each player’s quarterfinal results, it would be easy to assume Sabalenka wins a tidy straight-set match. However, we are giving Gauff more credit than that, as she is now 34-4 since Wimbledon last year and is 8-4 against top 10 players in that span. Gauff is 2-1 heads up against Sabalenka in their last three hard court matches dating back to 2022, and owns a 3-2 edge since 2020. Thus, we expect the American to settle her serving woes from her previous match and extend each set played in this matchup.
The Over on number of games played is 7-0 in Sabalenka’s previous seven Grand Slam semifinal matches, and we love the value of getting plus-money odds on the Over of 22.5 games, as we could still cash without the match going to three sets with something like a 7-6, 6-4 victory by either player.
Pick: Gauff-Sabalenka Over 22.5 games (+105 on DraftKings)
Qinwen Zheng vs. Dayana Yastremska Prediction
Not only is Yastremska the second ever qualifier to reach the semifinals at the Australian Open, but she is the fifth ever to do it at a Grand Slam in the Open Era, per OptaAce. However, she should not be thought of as the true underdog story who barely has a puncher’s chance in this matchup, as she at one point was ranked No. 21 in the world before her career hit a rough patch.
Yastremska earned every bit of her run to the quarterfinals, knocking off two major champions (Marketa Vondrousova and Victoria Azarenka) along the way. She has only dropped one set thus far to American Emma Navarro, a match in which she overcame a poor 46% first serve percentage. Yastremska then made quick work of 19-year-old Elina Noskova, who beat the World No. 1 Iga Swiatek on her way to the semifinals. Yastremska had 19 winners to Noskova’s six, bludgeoning her with her sheer power. And if she serves as well as she did in the quarterfinals, winning nearly 80% of her first serve points, she will be difficult for Zheng to contend with.
We like the fact that Yastremska is pretty well rested entering this match, playing just 11 sets to this point, and beating Noskova in under 80 minutes. Yastremska bettors may find value in DraftKings’ “Player to Win Most Games” prop, as the Ukrainian has +195 odds compared to Zheng’s -205 odds to finish the match with the most games won. However, while we are banking on this match going three sets to cash this wager (the Over on 2.5 sets has +130 odds), we are not ruling out the possibility that Yastremska wins in straight sets, considering she has covered the game spread in five of her previous six matches.
Pick: Yastremska Over 11.5 total games won (-115 on DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01
