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2024 Belmont Stakes: Best Exotic Bets, Picks & Predictions

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The 2024 Belmont Stakes will be a little different this year. Okay, maybe a lot different.

With Belmont Park under construction, the 2024 edition of the Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course. Not only will this race be run at a different venue, it’ll also be run at a shorter length. Traditionally, the Belmont Stakes is run at 1.5 miles. But at Saratoga, the race will only be 1.25 miles long.

While the difference may seem marginal, it’s a pretty significant difference in the horse racing world. In fact, Ken McPeek, owner of Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, even said he probably wouldn’t have entered Mystik Dan if this race was being run at its traditional length.

The change in venue is also potentially bad news for favorites like Sierra Leone (2/1) and Seize the Grey (7/2). Saratoga is actually regarded in the sport as the “graveyard for favorites,” and a quick Google search with this query brings up plenty of tales of insanely short favorites who fell short.

However, there are some horses that could be at an advantage at this shorter distance. The Belmont Stakes has been a race predicated on backing horses that have the stamina to go the distance and stay at the top of the pack. Closing speed hasn’t mattered as much historically at 1.5 miles. But a shorter distance means less stamina needed, which could result in a faster early pace that sets the table nicely for talented closers.

With all that being said, here are the horses I’m targeting in my exotic wagers at the 2024 Belmont Stakes.

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2024 Belmont Stakes: Best Exotic Bets

Horses to Consider 

Perhaps in all of my tee up I buried the lede. This Belmont Stakes is wide open, with a deep field of horses capable of winning the race. Only Dornoch, Honor Marie and Protective would stun me if they won. And if you couldn’t gather it already, I’m going to toss these horses from consideration. 

Great, that leaves us with seven horses to choose from. While I won’t exclude Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey from my tickets entirely, I do see them being at a disadvantage in the Belmont. Both horses will be running their third race since May 4, giving me concerns about their stamina even at this shorter distance.

The Wine Steward offers some intrigue as a long shot, as it’s finished at least second in each of its six career appearances. However, it hasn’t ran up against a field like this and hasn’t ran at this length in his career. I also don’t think Resilience has the pedigree to contend in this race after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby. 

That narrows the field down to my three favorite horses to consider in this race: Sierra Leone, Mindframe and Antiquarian.

Best Exotic Bets 

As I mentioned, a potentially faster pace and shorter distance will benefit horses with closing speed. And Sierra Leone may be the best closer in this field. Sierra Leone also gets a jockey upgrade, as Flavien Prat will take the mount atop the 9 horse, replacing Tyler Gaffalione. The key will be whether Prat can steer Sierra Leone straighter down the stretch, as the horse’s tendency to sway across lanes cost him the Derby. If Prat can straighten things out — literally — then there’s plenty of reason to believe in Sierra Leone as a factor down the stretch.

Despite not running in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes, Mindframe has the potential to be the best horse of the bunch during the 2024 Triple Crown series. You can’t argue with the trainer/jockey tandem of Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. Pletcher has four Belmont victories to his name, while Ortiz has two. While lightly raced, Mindframe has posted a pair of triple-digit speed figures in his two starts, winning them both. In a race filled with familiar names from past Triple Crown runs, Mindframe has the talent to top them all.

Antiquarian won the Peter Pan Stakes, a race that has been an indicative prep run for the Belmont. What’s more encouraging is Antiquarian posted a massive jump in speed figure, suggesting that this horse has more in the tank. Antiquarian has run against some talented fields in the Peter Pan and Louisiana Derby, and has run at 1 3/16 miles too. Antiquarian is my favorite horse within the mid-tier odds range. 

That all being said, I am recommending an exacta box and trifecta box using these three horses. I also don’t mind throwing in Mystik Dan, The Wine Steward and Seize the Grey as alternates either, as this really is a loaded field.

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