This Saturday will be five weeks since The Run for the Roses and that means it’s time for the 156th Belmont Stakes. The longest Triple Crown race, the aptly nicknamed Test of the Champion is normally run at 1 1/2 miles in the deep sand of “Big Sandy.” However, due to ongoing renovations, The Run for the Carnations will run at Saratoga and will only be 1 1/4 miles. Post time is approximately 6:49 pm ET on Saturday, June 8 at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York.
I am a process-driven bettor who tries to bring a method to the madness that is sports betting, specifically horse racing, so let’s look at historic trends for the Belmont Stakes to put together our tickets.
2024 Belmont Stakes Trends & Best Bets
Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1904
1 – Seize the Grey (8-1) – (Post 1 winners – 24, Most Recent – Justify, 2018)
2 – Resilience (10-1) – (Post 2 winners – 13, Most Recent – Essential Quality, 2021)
3 – Mystik Dan (5-1) – (Post 3 winners – 16, Most Recent – Arcangelo, 2023)
4 – The Wine Steward (15-1) – (Post 4 winners – 10, Most Recent – Summer Bird, 2009)
5 – Antiquarian (12-1) – (Post 5 winners – 15, Most Recent – American Pharoah, 2015)
6 – Dornoch (15-1) – (Post 6 winners – 9, Most Recent – Mo Donegal, 2022)
7 – Protective (20-1) – (Post 8 winners – 14, Most Recent – Sir Winston, 2019)
8 – Honor Marie (7-2) – (Post 8 winners – 7, Most Recent – Tiz the Law, 2020)
9 – Sierra Leone (9-5)(Post 9 winners -4, Most Recent – Afleet Alex, 2005)
10 – Mindframe (9-5) (Post 10 winners – 1, Most Recent – Thunder Gulch, 1995)
11 – N/A (Post 11 winners – 3, Most Recent – Tonalist, 2014)
12 – N/A (Post 12 winners – 1, Most Recent – Palace Malice, 2013)
13 – N/A (Post 13 winners – 1, Most Recent – Creator, 2016)
The first seven posts have been the most advantageous throughout Belmont Stakes history with all having produced at least nine winners and all but Gate 6 producing at least 10. While Gate 1 (Seize the Grey) has historically been the winningest post, over the past 23 races, Gates 3 (Mystik Dan) and 7 (Protective) have each produced three winners, the most of any post during that span. Even more recently, only Gates 2 (Resilience) and 5 (Antiquarian) have produced multiple winners in the last 11 years.
Trend-Based Bad Bets
There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets” for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win the Belmont Stakes. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven. Full disclosure, Mage fell into this section in my Kentucky Derby preview, due to not having run as a 2-year-old, but like I said, anything can happen on race day.
Preakness Weakness
Only three of the last 21 Belmont Stakes winners have won after running in the Preakness Stakes. Of those three winners, American Pharoah (’15) and Justify (’18) were both on their way to becoming Triple Crown champions, and the third, Afleet Alex (’05), also won the Preakness. The only two Belmont entrants that ran in this year’s Preakness are winner Seize the Grey and Derby winner Mystik Dan. Seize the Grey comes in off a Preakness victory so he at least has a chance based on this negative metric, but recent history rules out Mystik Dan.
Favorites, Schmavorites
Favorites have lost 15 of the last 21 Belmonts, likely hurting the chances of Sierra Leone. However, four of the last nine favorites have won, but two of those were on their way to Triple Crowns and were bucking all sorts of trends. If you take those two out, 15 of the last 19 favorites (78.9%) who did not go on to win the Triple Crown lost on Belmont Day.
Positive Belmont Trends
Nonstop From Kentucky to New York
Over the last 21 years, 13 Belmont winners have also run in the Kentucky Derby. Additionally, of those 13 winners, 10 have raced in the Belmont without running in a race since the Derby with the three exceptions being the aforementioned Preakness winners, Triple Crown champions, American Pharoah and Justify, along with Afleet Alex. Mystik Dan is coming in having run in both the Derby and the Preakness, the only such horse in the field. Dornoch, Honor Marie, and Sierra Leone all ran in the Derby and have not run since.
The Longest Odds in the Longest Race
Eight of the last 21 Belmont Stakes winners have opened with double-digit odds. Ever since Angel of Empire’s great-grandsire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont in 2003 at 3-1, eight of the last 20 Belmont winners have run at double-digit odds, beginning with Birdstone in 2004. This includes seven of the last 16 winners running at double-digit odds, despite the aforementioned four of the last nine Belmonts being won by favorites. This year, four horses opened with double-digit odds: Protective (20-1), The Wine Steward (15-1), Dornoch (15-1), Antiquarian (12-1), and Resilience (10-1).
Making the Grade
Since 2003, 14 of the 21 Belmont winners had a previous graded stakes victory, including nine of the last 11. In fact, of the seven winners that had not won a graded stakes race, six had at least finished in the money. In this field, Seize the Grey, Resilience, Mystik Dan, Antiquarian, Dornoch, Honor Marie, and Sierra Leone have all won graded stakes races. This trend doesn’t bode well for the remaining horses who have only won or placed in local stakes races at best, even with Mindframe coming in off two wins in two career races, both with allowances races but the most recent was at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.
Need for Speed
In recent years, the Belmont has favored pacesetters and stalkers, as 13 of the last 16 winners have been within 4 1/2 lengths of the leader after the opening 1/2 mile. The only two horses to win after being in the back half of the field at the 1/2 mile mark are Sir Winston in 2019 and Creator in 2016. Dating back to 2008, 13 of 16 winners (81.25%) and 11 straight have run the 1/2 mile in under 49 seconds, with two of the last four running it in under 47 seconds. That being said, the ultimate closer is in this race: Sierra Leonne. He’s got that freak kick and hit that high speed all night long. With this year’s race being run at 1 1/4 miles rather than the traditional 1 1/2 miles, a closer could play a bigger factor without having their own usual fatigue before the final stretch.
Peter Pan Winner is No Lost Boy
Antiquarian already has a graded stakes win at Belmont Park under his belt as he comes in fresh off a hard-fought victory in a photo finish in the Peter Pan Stakes back on May 13. Despite 13 of the last 20 Belmont winners having run in the Kentucky Derby, in the past 14 years, the Peter Pan Stakes or a race with the exact same conditions run sometime between the Derby and the Belmont has acted as a springboard for four different horses (28.6%) including the 2014 Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist.
Pletcher, Pletcher, Belmont Money Catcher
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won four of the last 17 (23.5%) Belmont Stakes. On top of that, in the last 18 Belmonts, in addition to his four winners, Pletcher has had eight horses Place and had three more Show. In that span, 54 horses have finished in the money at the Belmont, and 15 have been trained by Todd Pletcher, which is an incredible 27.8%. This insane number bodes well for Antiquarian, Protective, and Mindframe, the lot of whom are all in Pletcher’s barn and account for 30% of this year’s field.
Pedigrees
Seize the Grey (Arrogate – Smart Shopping by Smart Strike)
Resilience (Into Mischief – Meadowsweet by Smart Strike)
Mystik Dan (Goldenscents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
The Wine Steward (Vino Rosso – Call to Service by To Honor and Serve)
Antiquarian (Preservationist – Lifetime Memory by Istan)
Dornoch (Good Magic – Puca by Big Brown)
Protective (Medaglia d’Oro – Grace Hall by Empire Maker)
Honor Marie (Honor Code – Dame Marie by Smart Strike)
Sierra Leone (Gun Runner – Heavenly Love by Malibu Moon)
Mindframe (Constitution – Walk of Stars by Street Sense)
Best Boxed Superfecta: Antiquarian – Sierra Leone – Seize the Grey – Resilience (5-9-1-2)
For more information on how to bet futures, check out our Betting 101 series>>
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.
