2024 Belmont Stakes: Odds, Picks & Predictions
It’s time for the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes, which has a different twist this season. It will be run at the historic Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., rather than Belmont Park, as renovations are underway at the race’s usual home. As such, the length of the race will be shortened from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles due to the difference in track circumference.
We have 10 horses entered in Saturday’s race, searching for the third jewel in the American Triple Crown. The winner receives $1.2 million, a bump from $900,000 in 2023. The top eight horses will get a piece of the purse.
Last season, it was Arcangelo scooping up the win with 7-1 odds. Before that, Mo Donegal won in 2022, with Essential Quality in 2021 and Tiz the Law in 2020. All 13 posts have earned at least one win in the Belmont Stakes since the race began using posts in 1904. Post 1 has produced 24 victories, with Post 3 seeing 16 winners and Post 2 producing 13 victors. The last Post 1 winner was Justify in 2018, the last Post 2 winner was Essential Quality and the most recent Post 3 winner came last season with Arcangelo.
Remember, though, this is at Saratoga Race Course, so all bets are literally off when it comes to trends from Belmont Park. The race will start at approximately 6:41 pm ET on Saturday, June 8. it can be viewed on FOX or the FOX Sports app.
Let’s get into the 2024 Belmont Stakes odds, top picks among the favorites, a middle-of-the-pack possibility, as well as a longshot bet worth making. Here are our top 2024 Belmont Stakes picks.
2024 Belmont Stakes Best Bets
Best Bet – Favorites
The Belmont Stakes hasn’t seen a winner from Post 9 since Afleet Alex picked up the win back in 2005. This post has produced just four winners, but we could get another with Sierra Leone (9-5) as the morning line favorite.
The three-year-old colt has made three starts in 2024, including a second-place showing at the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. Before that, Sierra Leone had picked up victories in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, as well as a win at the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana.
In the past five races, the Chad C. Brown-trained colt has finished either first or second. This will be Sierra Leone’s first race at Saratoga Race Course.
The Belmont has been elusive to Brown, who has never picked up a win in the third jewel of the triple crown. Flavien Prat will be aboard Sierra Leone for Saturday’s race. He has also never posted a victory at the Belmont Stakes, so if Sierra Leone is to come through, it would be a first in several ways.
Best Bet – Middle of the Pack
If you don’t feel comfortable with Sierra Leone and you’re a little more on the conservative side, consider getting yourself in a different mind frame. It’s a pun that is totally intended, as Mindframe (8/1) goes off from Post 10. The Todd A. Pletcher-trained horse has a winning history on his side. Of course, the Belmont has produced just one winner from Post 10, Thunder Gulch back in 1995. If you bet Mindframe, know that Post 10 has the longest drought of any post in this year’s field. But with the shift to Saratoga, all previous history can be tossed out the window a little bit. Let’s make new history.
The combination of Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. went to the winner’s circle with Mo Donegal in 2022, so there is a recent winning history of a fast track in 2022. Yes, that location was at Belmont Park, but fast conditions are fast wherever, and the weather forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies on Saturday with only a slight chance of precipitation. That means it should be dry and fast, which is good news for Ortiz.
Ortiz was also aboard Creator for the win in 2016 for WinStar Farm and celebrity chef Bobby Flay during fast conditions, while Pletcher took Tapwrit to a win in 2017, and Palace Malice to victory in 2013. There is plenty of recent winning history with Ortiz and Pletcher, if you want a safer pick.
The three-year-old Mindframe doesn’t have a ton of races under his belt, but his two entries in 2024 have been very good. Mindframe won a Maiden Special Weight race at Gulfstream Park on March 30 and followed that up with an Allowance Optional Claiming win on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs in a race that went wire-to-wire for the victory. He was geared down on the final 16th, but that won’t be the case Saturday. You need to be a strong finisher at Saratoga. It remains to be seen whether Mindframe can finish strong. This is the least-raced horse in the field, so it’s a bit of a wild card.
Best Bet – Longshot
We’re looking to Dornoch (17/1) as the long-shot bet for Saturday’s race. The three-year-old colt from Kentucky will have Luis Saez aboard. He was the jockey who took Essential Quality to a win at the Belmont Stakes in 2021, and I feel a lot more comfortable backing a jockey who has been there before. It makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside having a little history on your side, although trainer Danny Gargan has yet to pick up a win at the race.
The three-year-old colt, sired by Good Magic, looks to make a little magic from Post 4. We haven’t had a winner from that post since Summer Bird cruised to victory in the 2009 Belmont Stakes.
The last time we saw Dornoch was at the Kentucky Derby, where he finished a distant 10th. He was a little better in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), ending up fourth, but there is a reason why Dornoch is a longshot. He did win in early March at the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream, while posting a victory in the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct in Dec. 2023, too. But will he knock on the door at Saratoga on Saturday? It’s far-fetched but worth a roll of the dice.
2024 Belmont Stakes Horse Previews, Picks & Predictions
Check out our previews for every horse competing in the 2024 Belmont Stakes and our expert analysis on the best bets for this year's running of the third jewel of the American Triple Crown.
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Daniel E. Dobish is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Daniel, check out his archive and follow him @danieledobish.