2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Most people visit New Orleans for a bender. It put my bets in the blender. My intuition was strong enough to avoid wagering any real money on the Zurich Classic. It was a loathsome distraction from the NFL Draft and only warranted a “good for the Irishmen†muttering under my breath on Sunday. Moving on. Only real tournaments remain from here through the Tour Championship.
This week, the PGA Tour returns to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Although a few notable names dot the field, we won’t see most of the world’s best until next week at Quail Hollow. I will have some measured confidence in this week’s wagers. The lines are soft with uncertainty in this lackluster field.
2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Byron Nelson is a staple on the Tour’s Texas Swing. This will be the fourth time hosting for TPC Craig Ranch, a 7,400-yard par-72 with Texas-sized fairways and Bentgrass greens. This is one of the easiest courses relative to par on the rota, so converting on birdie opportunities is the paramount stat. Gaining opportunities to score will mostly result from approaches of more than 175 yards and on the three very exploitable par-5 holes. A distinct advantage goes to the long hitters, who have the benefit of shorter approach shots and very little consequence to wayward tee shots. Grab the bull by the horns and let’s tee off.
Jordan Spieth
The Dallas native is something special on the golf course. While his approach metrics have been poorer this season, Jordan Spieth’s ability to create opportunities and convert them into birdies and eagles is excellent. His propensity to spray drives all over the course will not be met with much penalty, either. This is the softest line on a betting favorite we’ve seen all season. I’m hitting the button with authority.
Picks: Outright +1400 [1u]; Top-5 +360 [1u]
Stephan Jaeger
Stephan Jaeger is a Tennessee native by way of Munich, Germany. He might be inspired to move to Texas if he can complete the Two-Step this week at the Byron Nelson. His first PGA Tour victory came just weeks ago at the Houston Open, where his well-rounded game really shined. Jaeger is among the best at taking advantage of par-5s and is in the top 10 in the field on long approach. Jaeger bombs all around if this one cashes in.
Picks: Outright +2500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +300 [0.5u]
Doug Ghim
I just love the way Doug Ghim plays golf: with reckless abandon. Ghim fires at every pin, for better or worse. As a result, he is among the best on Tour at birdie-or-better rate and par-5 scoring. My favorite Ghim stat is that he is second in this field on approach, which spells success at gaining even more realistic scoring opportunities in the event that will absolutely require it. His swashbuckling nature, like Spieth, will not be met with much strife around TPC Craig Ranch.
Picks: Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +600 [0.5u]
Jake Knapp
Among TPC Craig Ranch’s most comparable courses on Tour is Vidanta Vallarta, the site of our gigantic win at the Mexico Open with Jake Knapp. He crushes the ball off the tee but also attacks pins with no regard for the repercussions of an errant approach. They call him “The Big Siesta.†He hits dingers and puts circles on the scorecard. I like gambling on golfers with eyes on award season. Knapp is headed for PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, potentially while donning a Stetson.
Picks: Outright +8000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +800 [0.5u]
Deep Shot: Dylan Wu
The pride of Southern Oregon has not seen as much success this season as his rookie campaign in 2023. He showed signs of life alongside Justin Lower in New Orleans last week, extending his made-cuts streak to five events in a row. Wu is 24th in this field in total strokes gained, including strong results in birdie-making and putting. Not a long hitter, Wu makes up for it on approach and with the flat stick. He is a force to be reckoned with in easier conditions, doubly so in a field sparse with elite talent.
Picks: Outright +20000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +600 [0.25u]
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