2024 Cognizant Classic: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Boom goes the dynamite! Despite multiple successful placement bets, this column had yet to hit an outright winner until last week’s Mexico Open. Rookie Jake Knapp was my ultra-confident pick at Vidanta to take home his first PGA Tour victory and he came through at 40-1, along with a +850 payout for the top-10 finish. With how I budget my bankroll over the season, this result ensures the rest of the campaign is no worse than break-even.
From a big win by the “Big Siesta,†we head into the Florida Swing with the Cognizant Classic. Formerly the Honda Classic, Jack Nicklaus’ PGA National championship course brings some much-needed carnage to the scorecards. Featuring the rugged three-hole stretch called “The Bear Trap,†PGA National is among the most demanding courses on the schedule.
2024 Cognizant Classic: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
The par-71 layout is a bit below Tour average at 7,147 yards. Previous seasons saw this course play to a par-70, but Hole 10 has been lengthened and converted from a nasty par-4 to an extremely gettable par-5. Accurate ball-striking from tee to green is absolutely essential. When things go awry (and they will), scrambling and bogey avoidance become key metrics to consider when building out a strong betting slip. Prowess on Bermuda greens is another facet that is often overplayed but cannot be ignored outright either. With thoughts on hitting the big time in consecutive weeks, let’s tee off.
Russell Henley
Yes, I know Rory McIlroy is in this field. His line is just much too short to bet here. The next tier of golfers is much richer with talent that fit PGA National this week. Henley is right at the top of that list. One of the most accurate players on the planet also sports the type of mental makeup that is required to hold it down here. Henley can score with anyone and also grind when it’s tough. A perfect fit.
Picks: Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-10 +280 [1u]
Eric Cole
I can vividly remember last year’s Honda Classic. Chris Kirk and Eric Cole were both on fire, meeting in a playoff to decide who would hoist the trophy. Kirk emerged victorious over Cole, but it was Cole who impressed me the most. One has to imagine that missed opportunity has stuck in his craw ever since. Cole is as steady and consistent a player as can be found on the PGA Tour, especially on approach and through the green. If he can harness his shots off the tee like last year, he stands a good chance to be the one who stands at the top this time around.
Picks: Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-10 +280 [1u]
Chris Kirk
It’s absolutely unbelievable that Chris Kirk is sitting at 40-1 odds as the defending champion. He also ranked inside the top 10 in six of the metrics in my weighted statistical model and was third overall behind McIlroy and stat darling Daniel Berger. He obviously has good vibes here. Expect a return to the top of the leaderboard again this week for Kirk, who will certainly not beat himself.
Picks: Outright +4000 [1u]; Top-10 +400 [1u]
Matthieu Pavon
Tres chaud. Matthieu Pavon is “very hot†right now. The François is on a real heater to begin 2024 and his steady style of play fits the course well. Struggling golfers don’t “find†their form on a course like this. It is normally a golfer who enters the week on a tear who continues to roll through, as long as they can avoid the big numbers that lurk around every corner of this place. Pavon is a confident pick at 50-1.
Picks: Outright +5000 [0.5u]; Top-20 +240 [0.5u]
Adam Schenk
The guy with the most ironic name that can be bestowed upon a professional golfer is also a trustworthy ally when betting on tough, approach-centric events. Adam Schenk is a very accurate player who scores well in difficult conditions. He is a grinder who scrambles and avoids bogeys like a madman, while also carding birdies where they present themselves. Many forget about Schenk on longer courses, but PGA National holds no advantage to the bombers of the world. His odds are much too long to ignore this week.
Picks: Outright +8000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +320 [0.5u]
Alex Smalley
Much like Schenk, Alex Smalley is the creature who emerges like the ringer at a poker table when someone brings up playing Stud or Omaha instead of Texas Hold’em. He is a specialist. Smalley is number two in this field in strokes gained from tee to green over his last 36 rounds. He is also seventh on approach and fourth in strokes gained ball-striking. These are all related stats that carry weight at PGA National. His weakness is converting birdie chances, but those will be few and far between this week. When looking for golfers who can keep their head (and golf ball) above water, we can do a lot worse than Smalley at 130-1.
Picks: Outright +13000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +500 [0.5u]
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: