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2024 Cognizant Classic: PGA Best Weekend Picks

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The 2024 Cognizant Classic is shaping up to be quite a finish. Currently, Bud Cauley, ranked 177th in the FedExCup standings, holds a one-stroke lead over the field at -11-under-par. Back-to-back rounds of -5-under-par and -6-under-par have catapulted Cauley into the outright lead heading into Saturday, followed by Austin Eckroat and Garrick Higgo at -10-under-par.

Kevin Yu and Victor Perez are sitting T4 at -9-under-par, while there’s a log jam at -8-under-par with eight golfers. This includes previous Cognizant Classic winner Rory McIlroy, who won this event in 2012, alongside Shane Lowry, Andrew Novak, David Skinns, C.T. Pan, Jake Knapp, Cameron Young, and Sam Ryder. Winds and rainy conditions are expected during the final two rounds, much different than Thursday’s opening round, which had minimal wind to create a ton of red scorecards. Round 2 saw players get chewed up by PGA National, while former runner-up, Eric Cole, was cut after going +7.

We’ve got four players to target in the PGA Tour outright betting market ahead of tee times on Saturday. Last week, we hit on Jake Knapp at +450 odds after his red-hot Saturday, so make sure to follow me on Twitter to get more free plays and PGA Tour best bets.

2024 Genesis Invitational: Best Weekend Picks

These plays are .5u and .75u, or 0.5% and 0.75% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Shane Lowry +1200 (0.75u)

Shane Lowry hasn’t won at Cognizant but he’s logged a runner-up finish in 2022 at -9-under-par, finishing one stroke behind Sepp Straka, while managing another T5 finish in 2023 with another final score of -9-under-par. The Irishman is currently at -8-under-par, going -4-under-par in each round played thus far. Lowry knows this course well and has a clear comfort level many other players don’t possess navigating water hazards on nearly every hole.

At +1200 odds, this is good value, considering we targeted Lowry in the outright market when he opened up at +5000. Ranking 38th total driving, fifth going for green birdie percentage, and 30th in one-putt percentage, Lowry is a good investment to make at 12/1 odds before moving day gets underway on Saturday at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

C.T. Pan (+2800) (0.50u)

It’s been five years since C.T. Pan won his only PGA Tour event at RBC Heritage, however, the 32-year-old is trending up at PGA National this week. Pan has gone 66-68 in his first two rounds, recording three bogeys and 11 birdies entering Saturday. Pan is fresh off of a T3 finish at the Mexico Open at Vidanta last week, steadily improving each round to climb the leaderboard.

He’s ranked 21st in strokes gained around the green, 48th strokes gained putting, and 23rd total driving. The most encouraging stats are how Pan performs in the final two rounds. The native of Chinese Taipei is 23rd in scoring average for Round 3 and boasts the second-lowest scoring average in Round 4. Pan should finish strong and he’s only three off of the lead, so at +2800 odds, we’re staking half a unit on his outright odds.

Sam Ryder (+2800) (0.50u)

Sam Ryder didn’t compete at the 2023 Cognizant Classic but he logged T8 and T9 finishes here in 2021 and 2022. The 34-year-old Florida native is seeking his first T10 finish of the season, so we’re not going crazy with this investment, however, Ryder deserves consideration at +2800 in the outright betting market.

He’s 44th strokes gained on approach and 27th in driving accuracy percentage. Ryder is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour with two runner-up finishes, so he’s positioned to finally breakthrough in his home state this weekend. Half a unit staked on Ryder at +2800 odds is another quality wager to make.

Matthieu Pavon (+2800) (0.50u)

Sitting atop the current FedExCup rankings, Matthieu Pavon has performed well during his debut on a difficult course like PGA National. The Frenchman has a ton of quality metrics that warrant half a unit in the outright betting market at +2800, including third in strokes gained putting, first in strokes gained on approach, and 35th strokes gained off-the-tee.

Pavon also ranks 12th for greens in regulation percentage, first in hole proximity, fifth in fairway proximity. Second in birdie or better conversion rate and 18th in one-putt percentage showcase his talent with the flat stick, while his irons are also dialed in most of the time. Since joining the PGA Tour after immense success on the DP World Tour, Pavon has gone T7, T39, 1st, and third in four events. He’s on fire and should remain in contention throughout the weekend, so let’s invest half a unit accordingly at 28/1 odds in the PGA Tour outright betting market ahead of the third round on Saturday.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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