Navigate

2024 Cognizant Classic: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks, & Predictions

by |

The PGA Tour has relocated to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida at PGA National for the 2024 Cognizant Classic. After a lengthy stay on the West Coast, a field of 144 golfers, led by Rory McIlroy at +700 in the outright betting market, gets prepared to take on the rigor of PGA National and its notorious stretch of holes known as The Bear Trap.

Water is found on 15 of 18 holes, but this par 70 has been modified into a par 71, giving players a bit of a reprieve on the 10th hole, going from a lengthy par 4 to a manageable par 5. Ball-strikers and clean lies off of the tee are imperative, along with saving shots that wind up in the abundant number of sand bunkers or avoiding various water hazards. Bermudagrass green speeds measure up to 12 feet on the Stimpmeter, allowing for putters to gain more velocity than we’ve seen on other recent putting surfaces.

In this article, we’ll focus on three players with longshot odds to win outright at the 2024 Cognizant Classic. Last week, we nearly hit on Andrew Novak at +17000 odds, which would’ve been the second time finding an outright winner at this number following Nick Taylor’s win at the WM Phoenix Open. PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share insights on why these three golfers are worth wagering in the outright betting market ahead of Thursday’s opening tee times from the Sunshine State.

2024 Cognizant Classic: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .25u and .10 u, or 0.25% and 0.10% of your betting bankroll. Odds used exclusively from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Daniel Berger (+4000)

We haven’t heard a lot of noise from Daniel Berger in 2024 but he’s been playing solid on the course since returning from injury. The 30-year-old American has missed a cut and logged T39 and T28 finishes at The American Express and WM Phoenix Open, still seeking his first T25 finish. PGA National seems like the place for Berger to get into a rhythm. He managed a T4 finish in 2022, going +4 in the final round to spoil his chances of contending for an outright win.

He’s logged four wins on the PGA Tour since 2016, but his last came at Pebble Beach in 2021, so he’s due to make a splash soon. Berger ranks 15th in driving accuracy and 18th for par 5 birdie or better leaders. He’s also ranked first in final round performance and 36th in Round 1 scoring average, meaning he starts and finishes strong. +4000 indicates oddsmakers believe Berger will get going early at PGA National, so let’s stake 0.25 units on these odds in the outright betting market.

Shane Lowry (+5000)

Shane Lowry is another golfer who has consistently produced quality finishes at this event. The Irishman finished as the runner-up in 2022, one stroke behind Sepp Straka, while logging a T5 finish at -9-under-par in 2023. Lowry ranks second in Round 1 scoring average but he’s tended to melt away in the final three rounds this season, which is why we’re landing +5000 odds on him in the outright market.

He’s 24th in par 4 scoring average, 38th in strokes gained around the green, and 38th total driving. Brandishing a driver that is the 15th-most accurate on the PGA Tour, while performing well with his irons, the putter is the biggest issue keeping Lowry out of contention so far in 2024. Let’s wager 0.10 units on Lowry to get a nice return on investment should he manage to wind up inside the top-five on Sunday at PGA National.

Matthieu Pavon (+6000)

The fact that we’re getting +6000 odds on Matthieu Pavon in the outright betting market seems too good to be true. He’s dominated the PGA Tour since coming over from the DP World Tour, where he had even more measured success. Pavon won the Farmers Insurance Open with a clutch approach shot out of the rough on the final hole, while nearly duplicating his efforts with a third-place finish the next week at Pebble Beach.

Pavon has spent a month off resting and preparing for his next event, which will be at Cognizant. He also began the year with a T7 against a loaded field at the Sony Open. As far as stats go, Pavon has a ton to boast. The Frenchman ranks first in strokes gained on approach, third strokes gained putting, and 35th strokes gained off-the-tee. Plus, Pavon is first in hole proximity, fifth in fairway proximity, and 18th in one-putt percentage. Oh, he’s also ranked first in birdie average. This will be the first time Pavon competes at PGA National professionally, but the learning curve shouldn’t be too much, so let’s stake 0.25 units on him at a great number like +6000 in the outright betting market.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App