2024 Cook Out 400: NASCAR at Richmond Odds, Picks & Predictions

Some say they’ll believe it when they see it. Well, the NASCAR Cup Series puts that to the test this weekend as it returns to Richmond, Va., for the second time in 2024.

You’re likely in one of two camps: taking the Toyota Owners 400 at face value and backing those same drivers to again rise to the top of the grid, or leaning into recent short-flat track performances. With so much time between now and the spring edition, I fall more into the latter crowd.

Still, with the option tires in play and a chance that Tropical Storm Debby makes an appearance, I recommend a cautious approach to NASCAR’s first weekend back following the Olympics break.

That said, there is still some surprising value on the board for both the Cup Series and Truck Series to take advantage of pre-practice and qualifying. Let’s break it down with my best bets for the 2024 Cook Out 400 and full card for take two on the River City.

2024 Cook Out 400: NASCAR at Richmond Odds, Picks & Predictions

Top 10: Noah Gragson (+480 via FanDuel) | .6u

Noah Gragson was very open when I spoke with him at Pocono that his uncertain future following Stewart-Haas Racing’s (SHR) announcement to close was weighing on him and potentially impacting him inside the racecar. Well, now that he’s had nearly a month to let his new deal with Front Row Motorsports (FRM) sink in, I’m ready to once again back the Las Vegas native.

Gragson crossed the finish line first back in 2021 and has five finishes of P8 or better in seven races in the Xfinity Series at Richmond. Back in the spring, Gragson finished 12th and had an average running position of 13.9 here. Given that Aric Almirola also finished T10 in 50% of his Next-Gen Races at Richmond in this No. 10 car, a nearly 5-1 pricetag on Gragson to do it appears to be the best value across this week’s T10 market.

Ryan Blaney (+156 via FanDuel) vs. Joey Logano | 1.5u

With how well Ryan Blaney has run at the short-flat tracks, I don’t think he should ever be at +156 in a matchup against anyone at one.

Although he had a poor performance in the RVA earlier in the spring, Blaney is No. 2 in ifantasyrace.com‘s short-flat track total speed rankings this season. The Ohio native’s runs include a T5 at Phoenix, a win at Iowa, a runner-up finish at New Hampshire and a should-of-been win at Gateway if he didn’t win out of gas on the last lap.

FanDuel is matching him up against his Team Penske teammate, Joey Logano, who has some of the best career stats of any active driver at Richmond, including a runner-up finish in the spring. However, if not for the short-on-gas debacle at Gateway, Blaney would be 4-1 against Logano on the short-flat tracks this season. At incredibly generous odds, I’ll back Blaney’s recent form over his teammate’s track record at Richmond.

Winning Manufacturer: Toyota (+110 via ESPN BET) | 1u

Martin Truex Jr. dominated Richmond in the spring, leading 228 laps and sporting a 2.9 average running position. Yet, it was Denny Hamlin who came away with the win after a late-race restart. That gave the Virginia native his second victory and fourth T5 at “The Action Track” in the Next-Gen Era. While Hamlin hasn’t looked good on the options tires in the rain, he’s still a threat to win given his hot start out of the gate this season and elite chemistry with crew chief Chris Gabehart.

Meanwhile, Christopher Bell has been the fastest driver on short-flat tracks this season, evident in his No. 1 total speed ranking at comp tracks. A damp track would also only play in Bell’s favor as he’s seemingly mastered the wet-weather compound better than almost anyone.

All three of these Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) drivers are very much live to win. Therefore, I’ll back TRD as a whole on the manufacturer moneyline at plus money on ESPN BET.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

• Ryan Blaney Outright (+1400 via FanDuel) | 1u
• Denny Hamlin Outright (+1000 via DraftKings - Boosted) | 1u
• Noah Gragson Outright (+180000 via FanDuel) | .2u

Clean Harbors 250 (Truck) Bets on My Card:

• Corey Heim Outright (+400 via DraftKings) | .4u
• Corey Heim T3 (-105 via DraftKings) | 1u
• Connor Zilisch (-125 via DraftKings) vs. Kaden Honeycut | 1u

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.