2024 Cook Out Southern 500: NASCAR at Darlington Odds, Picks & Predictions

With Harrison Burton’s surprise win in last week’s Cup Seris race at Daytona, the playoff cutline has yet again moved with just one week remaining in the regular season. This leaves the fan favorite “Melon Man,” Ross Chastain (-27), and the steadily improving Bubba Wallace (-21) on the outside looking in, heading to Darlington Raceway.

Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr. (+58), Ty Gibbs (+39) and Chris Buescher (+21) have the advantage on the cutline but are by no means safe. We’ve seen two new winners in the past three races, and past winners at the “Lady in Black” - Kyle Busch and Erik Jones - are lurking, hunting their first victory of the season.

No matter how things shake out on Sunday night, some of the world’s most talented drivers will no longer be competing for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. It’s a cruel reminder that 33 full-time teams and drivers pack it up disappointed each year, looking on as the confetti falls on their competitor.

But before 53% of the garage’s title hopes are dashed, there’s one last chance to continue their quest. It just so happens to be a 500-mile race at arguably the most challenging stop on the circuit, dubbed the track “Too Tough To Tame.”

Let’s capitalize on the premier stock car racing series reaching a fever pitch this weekend in the August heat with our best bets for the 2024 Cook Out Southern 500 and full card for a weekend of NASCAR racing down south.

2024 Cook Out Southern 500: NASCAR at Darlington Odds, Picks & Predictions

Top 10: Chris Buescher (-118 via BetRivers) | 1.2u

The driver of the Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing No. 17 has not been kind to our wallets this year, but we’re trusting him here with his season on the line.

In the spring race at Darlington, Busecher was fourth in the total speed rankings, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com. In addition to the Texas native having the fastest fourth-segment speed, he had an 8.1 average running position (fifth-best) and ran 93.9% of laps inside the top 15 (sixth-most).

If not for Tyler Reddick’s questionable late-race move that wrecked him and Buescher from the lead in the spring, the Castrol Ford Mustang was heading to victory lane. That would’ve also been his third-straight T10 at Darlington. We’ll back Buescher to at least protect his points lead with a T10 ticket at -118.

Top 10: Alex Bowman (+270 via FanDuel) | 1u

This misprice of a line has since been bet down but can still be found near or at 2-1 if shopped around. While you typically don’t think of Alex Bowman as an elite option at a “driver’s track” like Darlington, he has finished T10 in his last two incident-free races here. That includes a P8 finish in the spring running.

Darlington may not have an exact comp, but Dover is the closest thing to it that we’ve raced so far this season. Bowman had a rocket at the “Monster Mile,” finishing runner-up in stage two and ultimately P8 overall after making some contact with Martin Truex Jr. late in the race.

If he can work his way through the war of attrition, the 31-year-old should be in a position to finish toward the back half of the top 10.

Christopher Bell (-115 via ESPN BET) vs. Joey Logano | 1.5u

Fading Joey Logano H2H has worked for us more times than not this season, so we’ll continue to do so Sunday in a pick’em against Christopher Bell.

While the Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) No. 20 driver has had mixed results at Darlington, he’s had speed. Bell has qualified inside the top three in three of the five Next-Gen races here while also scoring stage points in seven of 10 possible stages. He might sit at a modest 11th in the Darling Next-Gen total speed rankings, but the Oklahoma native also won our most recent race at Homestead, another secondary comp track.

On the other hand, Joey Logano had a decent run going early at Darlington in the spring but was caught speeding on the pit road and finished 21st, eight spots behind Bell. That gives Bell his second win H2H against Lognao in the last three Darlington races.

Considering that Logano also has an average finish of 29.3 over the past four races coming in, and Bell has three finishes of P6 or better in that span, -115 feels like a great price to get invested with the Rheems-backed driver.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Christopher Bell Outright (+1600 via FanDuel) | 1u
Chris Buescher Outright (+2000 via BetRivers) | .8u
Ty Gibbs Outright (+1800 via BetRivers) | .8u
Ty Gibbs T10 (-125 via BetRivers) | 1.3u

Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 (Xfinity) Bets:

Chase Elliott Outright (+550 via ESPN BET) | .6u
Christopher Bell Outright (+350 via ESPN BET) | 1.4u
Christopher Bell T3 (+110 via ESPN BET) | 1u
Chase Elliott T5 (-120 via Caesars) | 3u
Noah Gragson (-110 via Caesars) vs. Brandon Jones | 2u

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.