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2024 Daytona 500: NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Betting on superspeedways is a lot like drinking on an empty stomach. You know you probably shouldn’t, but damn does that buzz come on quickly.

The annual running of The Great American Race only amplifies things. If lady luck is on your side, you walk away with weighted pockets. If it doesn’t break your way, you can at least stay warm with the betting slips lit on fire.

I already took a tango with fate during Thursday night’s Bluegreen Vacations Duels, where Kyle Larson and my 7-1 outright were in position to cash until the final turn of the final lap.

But hey, that’s just Daytona, baby.

While it could all go out the window just like that, here’s the data I considered for the Daytona 500:

  • 2023 Daytona 500 & II (Finishes, total speed rankings* & loop data*)
  • 2023 Talladega I & II (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Atlanta I & II (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Driver history
  • Daytona 500 trends
  • Qualifying & Duels performance

*via ifantasyrace.com

With the field set and disclaimers for expected mayhem provided, let’s get to my first official betting card of the 2024 NASCAR regular season.

2024 Daytona 500: NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions

Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook unless noted otherwise | 2024 Record: +10.5u

Outright: Joey Logano (21-1 Boost via DraftKings Sportsbook) | 1u

Prior to his pole-winning qualifying run on Wednesday, I was able to use a DraftKings boost to take Joey Logano’s already-undervalued 14-1 outrights odds all the way to 21-1. Logano won comp track Atlanta and finished second in the Daytona 500 last year.

This comes as no surprise. The Conneticut native spent 68.9% of his laps inside the top 15 (sixth-most). He also had the sixth-best average running position (11.3) and the third-best driver rating (102.7), behind only the Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Fords. In fact, Logano ranked second in combined driver ratings across all superspeedways in 2023. That’s behind only Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney, who will go to a backup car after wrecking in the Duels.

Although it hasn’t happened in quite some time, the winner of the Dyaotna 500 has come from the front row in 24.6% of races. Seemingly being there at the end more often than not, Logano is very much live to win his second Harley J. Earl Trophy on Sunday. He’s still hanging out there at 13-1 at some books, a price I’m willing to pay to invest in the No. 22 car.

Top 20: Zane Smith (-105) | 1u

The T20 market was only available for one race a season ago, so we’ll take advantage while it’s here. Driving the Spire Motorsports No. 71 Chevrolet Camero out of the Trackhouse Racing garage is 2022 NASCAR Truck Series champion Zane Smith. The 24-year-old has won the NextEra Energy 250, the Trucks’ version of the Daytona 500, each of the past two seasons.

In addition, Smith finished 13th in the 500 last year while manning the Front Row Motorsports No. 36 car. He wasn’t particularly fast, pacing 32nd in the total speed rankings. However, that allowed him to miss the major wrecks. Smith looked capable again this week, finishing sixth in his Duel. If Smith continues his patient approach and can avoid “The Big One” again this year, he’ll cash this prop at near even-money odds.

Special: Drivers To Lead a Lap

  • Ross Chastain (+100) | 1u
  • Daniel Suarez (+125) | 1u
  • Harrison Burton (+140) | .5u

If you ever wonder where the future of NASCAR betting is going like I do, it’s a breath of fresh air to see a new market offered. These odds for drivers to lead a lap were released late Thursday night following the Duels. While the top of the board is juiced to hell, there are some real values down the board.

Ross Chastain led six laps in last year’s Daytona 500 and 19 in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 (the second-most). The No. 1 car, running with the top Chevys for most of the race, looked competitive in the opening Duel. He was hit with a speeding penalty on his green flag pit stop, yet he still finished 11th. Chastain has the speed to find the front and lead at least one lap.

Chastain’s mistake opened the door for his Trackhouse Racing teammate, Daniel Suarez, to lead late-race laps and ultimately finish sixth. While his finishes at Daytona vary, he’s led at least one lap in three straight races here. Despite starting only 13th, “Mi Amigo” is somehow at plus-money to do it again.

While Harrison Burton is a bit of a loose cannon when he gets to the lead on a superspeedway, he’s gotten there more times than not in the Cup Series. He’s led a combined 12 laps between his two Daytona 500 starts and has been out front in back-to-back starts at the track. He had a shot at winning his Duel on the last lap before Austin Cindric closed the door on him. Still, he’ll start 12th and could cash this prop in the first stage.

Other Bets on My Card:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

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