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2024 Farmers Insurance Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Xander Schauffele saved this past week’s column from getting skunked altogether. Fitting, since he is the betting favorite entering the first stern test along the PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing. The Farmers Insurance Open is a clean departure from the resort-style birdie barrages and long-shot winners seen over the first three events this season. Laid along the jutting cliffs of La Jolla, California, is a championship venue revered as much as any golf course in the world.

Torrey Pines is one of the most spectacular golf properties in existence. The field this week will tee off its first round on Wednesday, with one of the first two rounds on the shorter, more straightforward North Course before a 36-hole cut. The third and fourth rounds will take place on Friday and Saturday on the behemoth South Course. Torrey Pines South is a quintessential test of one’s entire golf bag, traversing 7,765 grueling yards overlooking the mighty Pacific Ocean.

The winner come Saturday will have weathered one of the toughest tests in nearly perfect weather. My weighted statistical model is keen on tee-to-green metrics, especially on long approach and around these hard-to-hold Poa Annua greens. Driving distance and the familiarity advantage that California natives have with Poa greens is also included. That model is then overlaid with the current betting odds to create a card that is what I would describe as “meticulously aggressive.” Let’s tee off.

2024 Farmers Insurance Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)

Collin Morikawa

Morikawa has shed his struggles from most of 2023. The Southern California native has been very impressive at the Farmers through the years, with only an outright victory missing from his Torrey Pines resume. Morikawa is an elite iron player and a birdie-making machine, even in tough scoring conditions. He is my ride-or-die this week.

Picks: Outright +1100 [1u]; Top-5 +260 [1u]

Sungjae Im

Another golfer with a sparkling history at Torrey Pines is the Korean phenom. Im is another stellar iron player who leads this field in birdies or better gained on courses longer than 7,400 yards. Not only that, but Im gains a ton of strokes on the field on par-4 and par-5 holes. Those traits will be paramount to success this week.

Picks: Outright +2200 [1u]; Top-10 +240 [1u]

Keegan Bradley

This past year’s runner-up to Max Homa has always played well at the Farmers. New England native Bradley is among the world’s best on long approach, which will be constantly tested around Torrey Pines. With his unique mix of world class ball-striking and a grinder’s mentality, Keegan is again one of my favorites this week.

Picks: Outright +3000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +300 [1u]

Justin Rose

Rose’s odds have hit a free fall since they were published. This is peculiar, due to the Englishman’s stellar form at Torrey Pines over the years. This includes Rose’s victory here in 2019. The stats also support a return to the top of the Farmers leaderboard for Rose in 2024. I would have been in on him at his opening number of 35-1, but he has slipped into the realm of ridiculous and is firmly in “must-bet” territory.

Picks: Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +550 [1u]

Matt Wallace

Another (lesser-known) Englishman finds my slip this week after appearing at No. 18 in my model. Wallace has adequate distance off the tee and is equally strong on approach and around the green. One glaring weakness is his proximity on approach shots of more than 200 yards, but at triple-digit odds I’ll turn the other cheek and focus on all the positives.

Picks Outright +13000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +450 [0.5u]

Sam Stevens

It’s hard to believe that one of the hottest golfers in the world entering the week would sport 200-1 odds in various sports books. Stevens excels on longer courses, ranking second in this field in converting birdie opportunities. He also ranks third in strokes gained on par-5 holes and is in the top half of the entire field in every stat included in my weighted model. My gut says Stevens will make some noise this week.

Picks: Outright +18000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +500 [0.5u]

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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