Navigate

2024 Farmers Insurance Open: PGA Best Weekend Picks

by |

The 2024 Farmers Insurance Open has seen a cast of unlikely players ascend to the top of the leaderboard after two rounds. Playing both the Torrey Pines North course and South course, the field alternated between each course before a cut line was enforced at the end of Thursday’s round. Now, the final 64 players are set to tee it off on the more challenging South course on Friday and Saturday.

Not all players have struggled on the South course though. Thomas Detry went -4-under-par on Friday and is currently T3 at -10-under-par, but most of the field that dominated on the North course was humbled at Torrey Pines South. Patrick Cantlay went +1 on Thursday, while Patrick Rodgers, who also went +1 on Wednesday at Torrey Pines South, wound up going -8-under-par during his only venture at North. Currently, Stephan Jaeger and Nicolai Højgaard sit at first and second place, -12-under-par and 11-under-par, thanks in large part to each of them recording a score of -4-under-par and -5-under-par on the South Course.

Max Homa is defending his title from last year, where he waited until the final round to blaze a bristling -6-under-par scorecard, elevating him into a two-stroke lead over Keegan Bradley. Homa managed to make the cut this time, but he’s gone -2-under-par on each track, meaning he’ll need to climb from his current T50 position if he wants to have a shot as a back-to-back champion at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Other notables who made the cut and have performed well here historically include Sahith Theegala (T4 in 2023), Tony Finau (T9 in 2023), and Xander Schauffele (T13 in 2023) to name a few. Currently, Finau and Schauffele are T5 and T10, with plenty of golf left to play at Torrey Pines South. We’ll reveal three players who should be wagered in the PGA Tour outright betting market before the final two rounds get underway on Friday and Saturday.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter to get more free plays and PGA Tour best bets.

2024 Farmers Insurance Open: Best Weekend Picks

These plays are .5u and .75u, or 0.5% and 0.75% of your betting bankroll.

Nicolai Højgaard (+400 via FanDuel): 0.75u

22-year-old Denmark native, Nicolai Højgaard, has been the best player in the field at Torrey Pines through two rounds. No one has hit more fairways in regulation than Højgaard, who went -5-under-par on the South course to open up with a ton of momentum. He recorded two T10 finishes in 2023 but he did win the DP World Tour Championship last season, earning three wins on the international European circuit.

We’ll see how Højgaard performs down the stretch on Torrey Pines South in the final two rounds, but few have been as consistent when it comes to hitting fairways and delivering greens in regulation. Avoiding the four-inch rough is a necessity at this event, so backing Højgaard at +400 feels good, considering we’ve seen current leader, Stephan Jaeger, implode down the stretch on many occasions.

Xander Schauffele (+1000 via FanDuel): 0.75u

A native of San Diego, Xander Schauffele entered this event with virtually the same exact odds he now possesses, available at +1000 odds in the outright betting market entering Friday’s third round of play. Schauffele started slow last season, sitting at -1-under-par through the first two rounds, but now, he’s sitting at -7-under-par, with a great chance of climbing from his current T10 position on the leaderboard.

After starting with a bogey on the first hole on the South course on Wednesday’s opening round, Schauffele managed to go bogey-free for the final 17 holes, including four birdies. His mixture of elite ball striking and driving, currently ranked eighth in strokes gained off-the-tee and 29th in strokes gained around the green, make Schauffele’s +1000 odds worth wagering at 0.75 units.

Aaron Rai (+4000 via FanDuel): 0.50u

Aaron Rai ranks first in hit fairway percentage this season, converting 75 percent of his drives into fairway lies, which is imperative at a course like Torrey Pines South. Rai did most of his damage on the North course on Wednesday, going -6-under-par, but the Englishman still managed to go -2-under-par on the South course, overcoming three bogeys on the first nine holes with a -3-under-par effort to finish comfortably at T7 on the leaderboard.

Rai didn’t go under par in any of the three rounds he played at Torrey Pines South in 2023, so he’s already made big improvements in his game. Rai is another player without a PGA Tour win but he came close on several occasions last season. Rai is at his best when he’s around the green, ranking 32nd in strokes gained, while ranking 56th in strokes gained on approach.

His putting is the biggest liability, but as long as Rai avoids errant lies in the rough on these narrow Torrey Pines fairways, he will stay in contention through Saturday’s final round. At +4000 odds, sprinkling on the 28-year-old Englishman with a 0.50 unit wager is a quality investment to make.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App