2024 FireKeepers Casino 400: NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Picks & Predictions

If you’re reading this, chances are that you’re aware of what unfolded in the closing laps of last week’s Richmond Cup Series race.

In short, Austin Dillon, who was 32nd in points and a huge longshot, was running away with the win. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - playing grab-ass with two to go - spun Ryan Preece, causing the race to go to overtime. Joey Logano got the best of the No. 3 car on the restart. However, in the final corner, the Richard Childress Racing (RCR) driver dive-bombed from four car lengths back with his spotter yelling, “Wreck him,” and spun Logano. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin came from the bottom on the fast track to the finish. And whether he meant to or not, Dillon hooked the No. 11 car in the right rear to win the race.

NASCAR has since deemed that Dillon’s win at Richmond Raceway would not count towards playoff eligibility, reportedly costing the team over $2 million if he doesn’t win again in the next three weeks.

Part of me feels for the 34-year-old grandson of owner Richard Childress and an organization that has struggled mightily this season. He did whatever he could to win and lock himself into the postseason. Still, we learn to walk the line of competition and fairness from the time we’re young. We’re not perfect; sometimes, we’ll cross it in the heat of the moment.

But - looking back - those are times we need to get smacked in the mouth to be reminded what’s right and what’s wrong. NASCAR certainly smacked both Dillon and RCR in the mouth. How they respond with just three regular-season races is up to them. Their first opportunity is this weekend at Michigan International Speedway.

Hopping off my high horse, let’s get to my best bets for the 2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 and full card for a weekend of NASCAR racing in the Irish Hills

2024 FireKeepers Casino 400: NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Picks & Predictions

Top 5: Chris Buescher (+225 via ESPN BET) | 1u

The pressure is on the defending Michigan race winner, Chris Buescher. He sits even on the playoff cutline, which could move with another surprise winner over the next three weeks. Now is the time for the No. 17 car to find victory lane, and there may be no better track set up for him to do so than Michigan.

Last year, Buescher was third in the Michigan total speed rankings, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com, and the third-fastest late in a run. The speed was consistent, too, as Buesher sported the second-best average running position (8.1).

Looking at the high-speed intermediates this season, the Texas native is ninth in the comp track total speed rankings. He also almost got Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing back to victory lane earlier this year at Kansas - referred to as mini Michigan - when he won stage two, led 53 laps and ultimately finished runner-up.

The Buescher T5 ticket at a soft number allows us to chase the value of a 20-1 outright on FanDuel, whether we decide to cash out mid-race or ride it out.

Chase Elliott (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Joey Logano | 4u

Most books have Chase Elliott favored in this H2H matchup against Joey Logano. However, DraftKings sees it the other way, providing me with one of my favorite and biggest bets of the season to date. The Georgia boy has the best average finish at Michigan among all active drivers (10.2) and has a 77% T10 rate. Logano has also always been solid in the Great Lake State, winning three times here.

Yet, considering this season’s sample size, the No. 9 car is head and shoulders above the No. 22. Elliott is eighth in the high-speed intermediate track total speed rankings compared to Logano’s shaky 18th. Elliott also won at Texas and was P3 at Kansas. Logano’s best finish at the comp tracks was ninth all the way back at Las Vegas on March 3.

Elliott offers more upside than Logano, even in Ford’s backyard. I’ll fade the Team Penske wheelman coming off an emotional bad beat at Richmond and back NASCAR’s most popular driver.

SHR (-105 via Caesars) vs. RCR | 1.5u

For the books to have RCR favored over Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) is an obvious case of recency bias. Keep in mind that RCR only fields Dillon and Kyle Busch. SHR, on the other hand, will run out Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson and Ryan Preece. That makes this a four vs. two matchup.

Though RCR showed promising speed last week, Dillon spoke on the “Dale Jr. Download” that the speed mostly came from running a unique line and setup at Richmond. That makes me believe that RCR didn’t just solve all their problems over the two-week Olympic break.

Meanwhile, SHR - albeit closing at the end of the season - is 2-0 against RCR in the past two Michigan races. Kevin Harvick won this race two years ago, and both he and Aric Almirola beat the RCR drivers last year. Looking at high-speed intermediate tracks this season, SHR is 3-1 against the Chevy-backed team. Plus, the only race they lost to them was at Kansas, where Busch finished eighth and Gragson finished ninth.

I’ll take my chances that NASCAR took the wind back out of RCR’s sails enough that they won’t be able to beat all four SHR cars.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Chris Buescher Outright (+2000 via FanDuel) | .8u
Denny Hamlin Outright (+550 via BetRivers) | 1u

Cabo Wabo 250 (Xfinity) Bets on My Card:

John Hunter Nemechek T5 (-125 via Caesars) | 1.2u
Sammy Smith T5 (+380 via DraftKings ) | .5u
Sam Mayer (+105 via DraftKings) vs. A.J. Allmendinger | 1.5u

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.