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2024 GEICO 500: NASCAR at Talladega Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Tucked into the world of stock car racing - past the vehicles, fanfare and trophies - are people. I’m talking about real human beings, some with incredible stories. Maybe no more inspiring is a Hendrick Motorsports mechanic and budding shot-track racer, Marlin Yoder, who appeared on this week’s episode of “The Dale Jr. Download.”

A former member of the Amish community who left when he was 16 years old, Yoder made it to the peak of Stock car racing, winning the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship with Kyle Larson’s No. 5 team. In the interview, Yoder opens up to Dale Earnhard Jr. about leaving the Amish, discovering NASCAR while listening to a secret radio and ultimately breaking into the industry.

After having perhaps my worst series of bad beats ever at Texas last week, I needed a reminder of why I love this sport. The story of Marlin Yoder was just that.

Now comes Talladega, NASCAR’s biggest track on the circuit. Expect some unpredictable crashes, games of fuel-milage chicken and plenty of ponies out front. With that in mind, I recommend taking a shotgun approach this week - scaling back the unit size and giving yourself more bullets in the chamber.

While I’ll be backing some of the chalky favorites, I’m casting my net across both the Xfinity and Cup Series with plenty of longshots included.

Let’s lay out my full card and break down my best bets for the 2024 GEICO 500.

2024 GEICO 500: NASCAR at Talladega Odds, Picks & Predictions

Under 9.5 Finishing Position: Ryan Blaney (-115 via Caesars) | 1u

Trust is hard to come by at superspeedways, but Ryan Blaney has mine at Talladega. His finishes here in the Next-Gen era are P1, P2, P2 and P11. The 30-year-old has a knack for being there at the end and the speed to get him across the line first, evident by his seventh-best Talladega Next-Gen total speed ranking, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com.

The defending Cup Series champion is seventh in the points and tied for the most T5 finishes (four) this season. He’s due for some positive regression and a trip to victory lane. I’m backing him both on the 11-1 outright and - in case things get hairy - the Under 9.5 finishing position.

This prop is a Caesars exclusive located in their hard-to-find alternate UI, which the NASCAR betting community has dubbed the “speakeasy.” If you need help locating it, feel free to DM me on Twitter or consider investing in his T5 at 2-1 elsewhere.

Top 10: Todd Gilliland (+240 via BetRivers) | 1u

Todd Gilliland was a clear standout at the superspeedways earlier this season. The North Carolina native led 16 laps in the Daytona 500. He followed it up with a P4 starting position and 58 laps led at Atlanta. Gilliland’s crew chief, Ryan Bergenty, isn’t afraid to roll the dice on strategy and has given his driver good track position throughout the season.

Somehow, Gilliland is still without a T10 this season. I think that changes this week at one of his favorite tracks. His finishes in the Next-Gen era at Talladega are P12, P10, P7 and P27. I’ll take the +240 odds that he splits the difference. I’m also taking a sprinkle on the 50-1 outright. If the driver of the No. 38 will ever win in the Cup Series, his best chance is here in Alabama.

Chase Briscoe (+100 via Caesars) vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 1u

Chase Briscoe is hot, scoring back-too-back T10s at Richmond and Texas coming into Talladega. This is another one of Briscoe’s better tracks, evident in his Next-Gen finishes of P13, P4, P10 and P37.

That’s good for a 3-1 record against Ricky Stenhouse Jr. While Stenhosue Jr. is known as a superspeedway racer and has won here before, his recent finishes at Dega are P22, P15, P22 and P30. Couple that with only one T10 this season for the 36-year-old, and I think the wrong driver is favored. I’ll back Briscoe on this misprice, the T1o and the 50-1 outright.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Ag-Pro 300 (Xfinity Series) Bets:

Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.

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