2024 Genesis Invitational: Odds, Picks & Predictions
A good many folks out there might look at a golf course like Riviera Country Club and wonder what could have been for that piece of land. Smack dab in the middle of the richest neighborhoods in Los Angeles, “Riv†is a relic from a bygone era that has gone on to thrive in modernity.
As it approaches 100 years since its establishment, Riviera is most known for hosting The Genesis Invitational each February on the PGA Tour. The 70-person invitational event is designated as a “signature†tournament, putting a prize purse of $20 million up for grabs. At the end of a grueling 72 holes, a champion will have emerged from the 7,300-yard, par-71 track relatively unscathed.
Riv will give the golfers chances to score. The first hole is the easiest hole relative to par on the PGA Tour. The quirky, nuanced layout will also mercilessly pile on the strokes for those wayward souls who compound their errors in an effort to scramble. Jaunted, spindly Kikuyu rough awaits errant shots, eager to grab and twist club faces like the Devil’s Snare of “Harry Potter†lore. Finding the fairways is the key to escaping to the next tee box with a respectable score, but they are as narrow and crooked as a politician. Old oaks and eucalypti loom ominously and alter sight lines into tiny Poa Annua greens. The champion golfer this week will absolutely earn his prize.
2024 Genesis Invitational: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)
Key metrics to consider when wagering this week will encompass the entire golf bag. Tee-to-green stats are to be heavily weighted, along with scrambling and bogey avoidance for when trouble inevitably lurks. Riviera also boasts one of the strongest correlations to success based on prior history here on the entire Tour calendar. Many newcomers simply aren’t ready for the brand of weird that Riv has flaunted for 98 years. With the howling ghosts of a hundred movie stars floating the grounds, let’s tee off.
Rory McIlroy
I would love to believe in Scottie Scheffler this week, but he rates out in an abysmal fashion in my weighted statistical model. He has also struggled to put together a championship performance during a months-long putting slump. Rory McIlroy checks all the boxes for a runaway win this week. He rates out No. 1 in this field by a great distance. The Northern Irishman is elite throughout the bag and enters the Genesis is great recent form. McIlroy is also an underrated scrambler and putter on Poa surfaces. I feel great about his chances and am betting aggressively as a reflection of that sentiment.
Picks: Outright +1000 [2u]; Top-5 +230 [1u]
Max Homa
The 2021 Genesis Invitational champion has also finished in the top 10 here in four-consecutive appearances. Max Homa is stellar on approach and putts lights out on Poa greens. His comfortability at Riviera has developed into a mastery of the grounds. It was a mild and pleasant surprise to see such soft odds on what could be considered a top-10 lock.
Picks: Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-10 +190 [1u]
Cameron Young
Last week gave me hope that the 2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year was returning to stellar form. Cameron Young is an incredible player from tee to green, but his putting has been atrocious for going on a year. He putted marvelously in Scottsdale and nearly had enough to earn his first victory. His two appearances at the Genesis Invitational have been a success, so it stands to reason that he could make a lot of noise this week to remind everyone why we were so geeked about him 18 months ago.
Picks: Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +300 [1u]
Nicolai Hojgaard
The 22-year old Dane is a joy to watch. His game is quickly popping up in conversations about the future of the sport itself. Nicolai Hojgaard and his brother Rasmus already have name recognition on the DP World Tour, with Nicolai making waves this season as a rookie on the PGA Tour. While he won’t necessarily avoid the big numbers that lurk around these grounds, Hojgaard is a birdie-making machine. He has more than enough firepower to warrant a bet at 50-1.
Picks: Outright +5000 [0.5u]; Top-20 +165 [1u]
Luke List
I have long been a Luke List doubter. As recently as 2022, List was among the very worst putters in the world of professional golf. Those days appear to be in the rearview mirror. This is especially true when putting on Poa Annua greens, where the master ball-striker ranks sixth in this field over the past 24 rounds. If the trend continues this week, List is a screaming value at more than 100-1.
Picks: Outright +11000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +280 [0.75u]
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: