Navigate

2024 Goodyear 400: NASCAR at Darlington Odds, Picks & Predictions

by |

They say beggars can’t be choosers, but we motorsports bettors can definitely be.

Last week’s Cup Series Kansas race gave us an instant classic and everything fans could hope for: Intense battles for the lead from the wave of green flag, legit tire wear, strategy/fuel saving and – oh yeah – the closest finish in NASCAR history!

However, for every Kyle Larson fan fist pumping, there were those left speechless holding the Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. or Chris Buescher outright tickets. Guilty as charged on more than one account.

And sure, bad beats blow, but if the tradeoff is witnessing one of the greatest races in history? How you look at it and, better yet, how you respond is up to you.

For me? I’m going to keep firing bullets.

That includes at Darlington, where the Cup, Xfinity and Truck Series do battle as part of NASCAR’s Throwback Weekend. For those who grew up watching this sport, little tops it. Classic paint schemes, with fans and drivers bought in – all to witness one of the most unique challenges on the circuit.

Expect high-tear wear, low grip and the most skilled drivers wheeling their machines to the front. While there are no true comps to the track “Too Tough To Tame,” we come here twice a year and can consider secondary comps like last month’s Dover race and 2023’s Homestead race. It’ll be that data, plus the last two years’ worth of Darlington races, that’ll influence this week’s betting cards.

Qualifying is huge here, and the Cup Series odds are a bit juiced this week. I advise keeping at least 40% of your unit allocation for that race at bay until after practice and qualifying.

Let’s hit rewind with our best bets for the 2024 Goodyear 400 at Darlington.

2024 Goodyear 400: NASCAR at Darlington Odds, Picks & Predictions

Top 5: William Byron (+125 via BetRivers) | .8u

William Byron will pull double-duty this weekend, running both the Xfinity and Cup Series races. I’m heavy on him for Saturday’s race (see below), and he’s the one Cup Series driver being disrespected ahead of practice and qualifying.

Byron has six wins over the past 48 races, including this race last year. He is No. 1 in the Darlington Next-Gen total speed rankings, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com, helping Byron have two T5s in the four races during that span. He would have a third T5 and another win if Joey Logano didn’t punt him on the last lap of this race in 2022.

While the iRacer-turned-pro isn’t in the best form coming in, he’s been fast at the most recent comp tracks. That includes having the seventh-best total speed ranking two weeks ago at Dover and finishing fourth at Homestead in October.

Some extra time in the car this weekend should help Byron get back on track after back-to-back sub-par finishes. I’ll hedge myself on the +850 outright with this T5 position prop.

William Byron (-136 via Caesars) vs. Christopher Bell | 1.5u

Sticking with the No. 24 car, I’m laying the juice in this head-t0-head against Christopher Bell. While Byron has cooled off of late, Bell has been worse, posting an average finish of 26.0 over the past five races.

The No. 20 car has also just not had it at Darlington recently, registering the ninth-best Next-Gen total speed ranking here and the 16th-best if just looking at last season. This is opposed to Byron ranking first in the Next-Gen era and second in 2023.

I’ll go as far as to say that Bell isn’t an elite driver at high-tire-wear tracks yet. In 2023, he ranked 18th in the high-tire-wear intermediate total speed rankings, while Byron ranked second.

Kyle Busch (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Christopher Bell | 1.5u

The fade of Bell continues in this matchup against Kyle Busch. After a rough start to the year on intermediates, Busch is rounding into form, finishing fourth at Dover and eighth at Kansas in the past two weeks.

This Richard Childress Racing (RCR) No. 8 car – whether Busch or Tyler Reddick driving – has had speed at Darlington in the Next-Gen era. Factoring in Busch’s final season with Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR), he is No. 2 in the Darlington Next-Gen total speed rankings. The finishes haven’t been there, but the speed has.

Considering that “Rowdy” will touch the track first on Friday for the Truck Series race, I was surprised to see him at even-money for this H2H against Bell. With an unflattering placement prop market, this is truly my favorite value across the board in the Cup Series.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Buckle Up South Carolina 200 (Truck) Bets:

Crown Royal Purple Bag Project 200 (Xfinity) Bets:

Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App