2024 Indianapolis 500: Odds, Picks & Predictions
There might be no use crying over spilled milk, but that doesn't mean there's no use in cheering about - or better yet gambling on - poured milk. I'm talking about the Indianapolis 500, often considered “The Greatest Spectacle in Racing.â€
This year's race seems to be more hyped than ever. That's in part due to the controversy surrounding Team Penske, which essentially owns the series, manipulating the push-to-pass system earlier this year.
It also has to do with 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Champion Kyle Larson hopping into the cockpit for his first-ever IndyCar race. The Elk Grove, Calif. native is attempting to be the first driver to complete “The Double†- running the 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on the same day - since Kurt Busch did it in 2014.
Can Larson prove he is, in fact, the greatest driver on the planet, or will the IndyCar regulars like Josef Newgarden and Alex Palou serve up a piece of humble pie to the 25-time Cup Series race winner?
Let's break it down further in my best bets for the 2024 Indianapolis 500.
2024 Indianapolis 500: IndyCar Odds, Picks & Predictions
Team of Race Winner: Team Penske (+140 via BetRivers) | 1.5u
Six of the last seven Indianapolis 500 winners have come from the top three rows on the grid (the top nine starting cars). Moreover, three of the latest seven winners (42.9%) have come from the front row. With this bet we are locking in any of the front row to win, which just so happens to be all three Team Penske cars. Suspicious? I’m not here to judge, just make money.
On the pole is Scott McLaughlin, a New Zealander who has already won this season and finished top-six in four of the five ovals last year. Starting in second is Will Power, the 2018 Indianapolis 500 winner, who finished top-five in two of the five oval races last year and led laps in four of the five. On the outside front row is Josef Newgarden, the defending Indianapolis 500 champion (more on him in a bit).
With how fast Team Penske was off the truck, they could very well control this race from start to finish. Having a ticket with any of the three to win for a fair price of +140 is my no-brainer favorite bet of the weekend.
Top 3: Josef Newgarden (+160 via FanDuel) | 1u
I would usually be trepidatious about a T3 placement prop in a race as wild as the Indianapolis 500, but Josef Newgarden dominated last season on the IndyCar ovals. The Tennessee native won four of the five oval races in 2023. He also started on the pole and led 98 laps at Gateway before getting loose and making contact with the wall, effectively ending his day.
This number is as low as +125 at other shops, so to get Newgarden on the T3 placement at +160 on FanDuel feels like good value. Unless he gets tangled up, Newgarden should be competing for the win and finish - at worst - where he starts in third.
To Lead a Lap: Takuma Sato (-134 via BetRivers) | .8u
To lead a lap markets are rare to come by, usually reserved for the Indy 500 and Dyatona 500, so we have to take advantage when they’re available. They’re arguably one of the most fun ways to get invested in a race, given that they can cash at any point throughout it.
In this prop, I’m backing the 47-year-old Japanese driver and two-time Indianapolis 500 winner, Takuma Sato, to lead the field across the stripe at least once. The veteran is now an ovals-only driver, specializing in races like this. He’ll roll off 10th on Sunday after finishing seventh a year ago. Sato has touched the front in five of the last six 500s and remains a feared competitor, even in the latter days of his racing career.
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Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.