2024 John Deere Classic: Odds, Picks & Predictions
The Rocket Mortgage Classic last week was pretty rough on us. Stephan Jaeger and Michael Thorbjornsen missed the cut and Will Zalatoris withdrew with pain in his surgically repaired back. Then there was Cameron Young, who completely imploded on Sunday. He had myriad opportunities to take home his first PGA Tour victory but succumbed to a snap hook with his driver. He even snapped his driver shaft in frustration and was forced to play without it on the back nine. Young also could not make anything on the greens. His mental game was a liability under pressure. Our only saving grace was young Neal Shipley. The Ohio State grad had just turned professional the week prior and made good on his major performances with a tie for 20th and an 11-unit win on the betting slip. We’re on to rural Illinois for another birdie fest. I can’t wait to fire up some more young guns.
The John Deere Classic is a staple event leading up to the Open Championship, but many of the world’s best are resting on their laurels in preparation for their trip to Scotland. That’s fine and dandy to me. The odds are ultra-soft because the betting public is evenly spread among a full field of lesser-known golfers. This is a tournament brimming with betting edges, so I’ll cast a wide net while staying moderately conservative.
2024 John Deere Classic: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
TPC Deere Run is a 7,200-yard track that plays to a straightforward par-71. The course is bentgrass throughout, with treelined fairways and receptive but undulating green complexes. Despite not offering much resistance in the way of hazards, the golfers who wish to contend must create real scoring opportunities and convert them at a high clip. My weighted statistical model put a lot of emphasis on recent form in total strokes gained and birdie-or-better percentage. Opportunities gained were filtered to include the last 24 rounds played in easy scoring conditions relative to par. Not surprisingly, many of the top options were sporting long odds begging for a hearty wager. Hop on the big green tractor and let’s tee off.
Sungjae Im
Once Patrick Cantlay withdrew from this tournament, the class of the field immediately became Sungjae Im. The Korean phenom has been a tale of two seasons in 2024. He has been abysmal in adverse scoring conditions, but equally dominant when birdies are ripe for the picking. Im has five top-10 finishes this season, four of which have come in the last two months. He finished in third place in his last start at the Travelers, riding a stellar short game and high birdie rate. His weakness has been off the tee, but there won’t be many lost strokes for missing the fairways at the John Deere. With a higher rate of fairways hit, Sungjae can dial up some great iron play and put together four strong rounds to pay off as the betting favorite.
Picks: Outright +1400 [1u]; Top-5 +330 [1u]
JT Poston
The Postman delivers on Sundays, in this case, as JT Poston won the 2022 John Deere Classic. His putting was lights-out that week, but his overall game has been even better this season. Poston has made all but two cuts this season, versus four top-10 finishes. He is fifth in this field in strokes gained in easy scoring conditions and absolutely crushes par-4 holes, a very heavily weighted metric. Feel free to bet more aggressively than I am. JT is worth the price of admission.
Picks: Outright +3000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +330 [0.5u]
Ryo Hisatsune
I’ve been hyping the sensational Japanese phenom Ryo Hisatsune since last year. Hisatsune is a birdie-making buzz saw of a golfer and ranks number one in my model overall. He was ripping the DP World Tour to shreds as a teenager and now is really impressing the golf world stateside. Where his struggles on the greens have been well-documented, nobody in this field can keep pace if Ryo has his A-game.
Picks: Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +550 [0.5u]
Michael Thorbjornsen
I simply refuse to sit on my hands when the future of the sport has his moment. Stanford star Thorbjornsen missed the cut by a single shot last week, right when we were seeing his form round into shape for the weekend. Deere Run is much less demanding on a player’s putting prowess than Detroit GC so atch the rookie light it up if he can get into a rhythm.
Picks: Outright +10000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +850 [0.5u]; Top-20 +360 [0.5u]
Deep Shots: Chan Kim & Ben Kohles
Each of these gentlemen is much too talented to be disrespected with long odds (120-1). Chan Kim has performed extremely well in events that require low scoring. He is outstanding on approach and is second in this field in birdie or better percentage. Ben Kohles has already had a close shave with glory this season. He finished runner-up at the Byron Nelson when he chili-dipped his wedge on 18. Kohles also logged a top-10 finish in Puerto Rico and a tie for 20th at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has a type. Kohles loves to go low when he can attack pins from wedge distances. I’m firing away with a few bucks on each of them.
Deeper Shot: Austin Cook
You might not have ever heard of Austin Cook, but he’s a pretty damn good golfer. With my unique stat model, this ultra-long shot (500-1) is ranked in the top 20 in both total strokes gained and good drives gained over his last 24 rounds. Cook is also a solid birdie converter, at 44th in this field. His top-20 line is at +1100 and top-40 is still a respectable +300. Don’t be too overzealous with your wager, but I’m putting a couple of bucks on Cook to see the weekend and maybe make some noise at Deere Run.
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