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2024 Kentucky Derby: Best Exotic Bets for the 150th Run for the Roses

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The 2024 Kentucky Derby is defined by the several horses at the top. In the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, you’ll most likely be aligned with one of Fierceness, Sierra Leone or Forever Young atop your tickets. But one of my favorite parts of the Kentucky Derby, and horse betting in general, is the exotic wagers. But Kentucky Derby exotic bets can be confusing, so we’ll start at the beginning before getting into the best strategies for 2024.

In this piece, I’ll explain what exotic bets are, and provide my top choices for the Derby.

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What are exotic bets in horse racing? 

Exotic wagers are like horse racing's version of parlays in sports betting. They are low-probability wagers that can carry some massive payouts if lady luck is on your side. And like a parlay, you need each leg to occur to win.

There are tons of different types of exotic wagers out there, but for the purpose of this article, we'll stick to the main three:

  • Exacta: Picking the horses that will come in first and second place.
  • Trifecta: Picking the horses that will come in first, second and third place.
  • Superfecta: Picking the horses that will come in first, second, third and fourth place.

Another unique option in horse racing is the ability to "box" your exotic wagers. When you box a wager, you're playing all of the possible combinations of your wager. This gives you a better chance to win, but increases your initial wager.

Let's use an exacta as the simplest example. Say you bet a $1 exacta with Horse A finishing first and Horse B finishing second. If you do a straight exacta, you only win if Horse A and Horse B finish first and second exactly. If you box this exacta, it becomes a $2 wager (because there are two possible outcomes), but you will win if Horse B comes in first and Horse A comes in second.

It's worth noting that you can bet more than two horses in an exacta, but keep in mind that your wager will increase. Say you take Horse A, B and C in an exacta box, that becomes a $6 wager because of the six possible combinations.

Best Exotic Wagers for the 2024 Kentucky Derby 

Let’s start with which of the top three favorites I’ll be building my ticket around. While it’s chalky, and chalky is always scary in horse racing, I think Fierceness has the highest upside in this race. He’s posted the two fastest speed figures among the field, and I don’t mind him starting this race along the outside, where he’ll have less congestion in front of him. All indications are that Fierceness has another gear in him after a remarkable effort in the Florida Derby. You also can’t beat the trainer-jockey combo of Todd Pletcher and John Velasquez, who have won five combined Derbys. If Fierceness breaks well and gets to his preferred position near the pace, it could be his race to lose, making him my primary choice atop my exotic tickets.

$2 Exacta – (16) Fierceness, (8) Just a Touch 

I’ve already spoken volumes about why I love the favorite Fierceness. But another horse I’m excited about is the 8, Just a Touch. If you're looking for a horse with pedigree and a win under its belt, then Just a Touch might be the choice. Just a Touch is sired by the legendary Justify, the most recent horse to win the Triple Crown.

Just a Touch also won his racing debut back in January, and has two second-place finishes in the 2024 Gotham G3 at Aqueduct, as well as an impressive second-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. I also like the trainer-jockey combo in Brad Cox and Florent Geroux, a duo which technically has a Derby victory under its belt after Mandaloun was named the winner following a post-race disqualification of Medina Spirit in 2021.

While Just a Touch's inexperience could be a drawback, it's worth noting that his sire Justify and last year's winner Mage both won the Derby in their fourth-career start after not racing as a 2-year-old.

I will play a few wagers with Just a Touch on top, but thees are my two favorite horses in the field.

Talking Trifectas 

I’m going to be playing a variety of trifectas in this race, as there are a ton of horses that could hit the board. Obviously, Sierra Leone offers a ton of intrigue as a late-race closer that could be in it late, but it runs a bit sloppy and has a tendency to drift between lanes. Catching Freedom is another closer that’ll need a clear run to come from behind. It’s also hard to ignore Domestic Product’s 30/1 odds when you consider trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., are in charge. Mystik Dan is worth a look if the track doesn’t dry up following Thursday and Friday’s rains. While I’m skeptical about Forever Young traveling from Japan to Kentucky, he has the speed figures that give him Japan’s best shot at a Derby winner.

Ultimately, I’m going to sprinkle a few different horses in with my top two picks, with my favorite option being the closer Sierra Leone.

2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Previews, Picks & Predictions

Check out our previews for every horse competing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and our expert analysis on the best bets for this year's Run for the Roses.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Odds

Post Position Horse Trainer Name Jockey Name Odds
1 Dornoch Danny Gargan Luis Saez 20-1
2 Sierra Leone Chad Brown Tyler Gaffalione 3-1
3 Mystik Dan Kenny McPeek Brian Hernandez Jr. 20-1
4 Catching Freedom Brad Cox Flavien Prat 8-1
5 Catalytic Saffie Joseph Jr. Jose Ortiz 30-1
6 Just Steel D. Wayne Lukas Keith Asmussen 20-1
7 Honor Marie Whit Beckman Ben Curtis 20-1
8 Just a Touch Brad Cox Florent Geroux 10-1
9 Encino Brad Cox Axel Concepcion 20-1
9 T O Password Daisuke Takayanagi Kazushi Kimura 30-1
10 Forever Young Yoshito Yahagi Ryusei Sakai 10-1
11 Track Phantom Steve Asmussen Joel Rosario 20-1
12 West Saratoga Larry Demeritte Jesus Castanon 50-1
13 Endlessly Michael McCarthy Umberto Rispoli 30-1
14 Domestic Product Chad Brown Irad Ortiz Jr. 30-1
15 Grand Mo the First Victor Barboza Jr. Emisael Jaramillo 50-1
16 Fierceness Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 5-2
17 Stronghold Phil D'Amato Antonio Fresu 20-1
18 Resilience Bill Mott Junior Alvarado 20-1
19 Society Man Danny Gargan Frankie Dettori 50-1
20* Epic Ride John Ennis Adam Beschizza 50-1

* Epic Ride is replacing Encino.

Best Bets, Picks & Predictions

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