2024 Kentucky Derby: Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Daniel Dobish |
May 03, 2024

The first Saturday in May is rapidly approaching and that means we get the running of the 150th Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses will start at approximately 6:57 pm ET on Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

Letâ€™s get into the 2024 Kentucy Derby odds, top picks among the favorites, a middle-of-the-pack possibility, as well as a longshot bet worth making. Here are our top 2024 Kentucky Derby picks.

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2024 Kentucky Derby Picks

Best Bet â€“ Favorites

The Kentucky Derby has seen a winner come from Post 16 on four different occasions, with the last win in 2011 with Animal Kingdom. We could get another with Fierceness (5-2). The Todd Pletcher-trained horse, ridden by John Velazquez, is certainly worth a look. This will be Pletcherâ€™s 65th horse in the Run for the Roses. Heâ€™ll be looking for his third victory and first since 2017 with Always Dreaming. Velazquez was aboard the steed that afternoon.

With Encino being scratched, Fierceness moves out of Post 17, the â€œunluckyâ€ post, or any post that has never produced a Kentucky Derby champion. Epic Ride slides into Post 20, and everyone else moves up one. Could that be an omen?

Fierceness has made two starts in 2024, finishing third in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) back in early February at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. The 2023 Eclipse Champion 2 Year-Old Male returned in late March to Gulfstream for the Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill â€˜nâ€™ Dale Farms at Xalapa. He won the Grade 1 race. Fierceness has won three of his past five races, including a victory in Aug. 2023 at Saratoga in the Maiden Special Weight race, and in early Nov. 2023 at the Breedersâ€™ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, a race with an Equibase Speed Score of 110.

Fierceness, the Kentucky-bred horse, has recorded an average speed of 97, which ranks third in Saturdayâ€™s field behind only Sierra Leone (98.3) and Just a Touch (100). Fierceness was sired by City of Light, a horse with three career wins, including the 2018 Breedersâ€™ Cup dirt mile and 2019 Pegasus World Cup.

Best Bet â€“ Middle of the Pack

Just a Touch (10-1) goes off from Post 8. The Brad H. Cox-trained horse, ridden by jockey Florent Giroux, is looking to make his sire proud. Just a Touch was sired by Justify, the US Hall of Fame Thoroughbred who became the 13th winner of the American Triple Crown. Justify was also just the second horse since 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old, so Just a Touch has some history on his side. Just a Touch was produced from the Tapit mare Touching Beauty, too.

The Qatar Racing horse secured a runner-up finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 6 in a race with an E Speed Figure (ESF) of 105, while also placing at the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct in early March with an ESF of 95.

Best Bet â€“ Longshot

Domestic Product (30-1) is worth a roll of the dice. The Chad Brown-trained horse, ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., could make some noise. Domestic Product has made two starts in 2024 leading up to the Kentucky Derby, posting a second-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream in early February, just ahead of Fierceness, by the way. In early March, Domestic Product ran in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G3), finishing in first place, with an ESF of 82.

If you bet on the longshot horse, and Domestic Product is middle of the pack during the race, donâ€™t be concerned. In that Tampa Bay Derby race, Domestic Product lagged with Tyler Gaffalione on his back, sitting in fifth place at the quarter- and half-pole, while registering just fourth place at the 3/4 pole. However, he moved to third on the straightaway, with plenty of speed to burn, eventually winning by a neck against No More Time, who needed a little more time, pun totally intended.

2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Previews, Picks & Predictions

Check out our previews for every horse competing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and our expert analysis on the best bets for this year's Run for the Roses.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Odds

Post Position	Horse	Trainer Name	Jockey Name	Odds
1	Dornoch	Danny Gargan	Luis Saez	20-1
2	Sierra Leone	Chad Brown	Tyler Gaffalione	3-1
3	Mystik Dan	Kenny McPeek	Brian Hernandez Jr.	20-1
4	Catching Freedom	Brad Cox	Flavien Prat	8-1
5	Catalytic	Saffie Joseph Jr.	Jose Ortiz	30-1
6	Just Steel	D. Wayne Lukas	Keith Asmussen	20-1
7	Honor Marie	Whit Beckman	Ben Curtis	20-1
8	Just a Touch	Brad Cox	Florent Geroux	10-1
9	~~Encino~~	~~Brad Cox~~	~~Axel Concepcion~~	~~20-1~~
10	T O Password	Daisuke Takayanagi	Kazushi Kimura	30-1
11	Forever Young	Yoshito Yahagi	Ryusei Sakai	10-1
12	Track Phantom	Steve Asmussen	Joel Rosario	20-1
13	West Saratoga	Larry Demeritte	Jesus Castanon	50-1
14	Endlessly	Michael McCarthy	Umberto Rispoli	30-1
15	Domestic Product	Chad Brown	Irad Ortiz Jr.	30-1
16	Grand Mo the First	Victor Barboza Jr.	Emisael Jaramillo	50-1
17	Fierceness	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	5-2
18	Stronghold	Phil D'Amato	Antonio Fresu	20-1
19	Resilience	Bill Mott	Junior Alvarado	20-1
20	Society Man	Danny Gargan	Frankie Dettori	50-1
21*	Epic Ride	John Ennis	Adam Beschizza	50-1
22*	Mugatu	Jeff Engler	Joe Talamo	50-1

* Epic Ride is replacing Encino. Mugatu would replace any other scratches ahead of the weekend.

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