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2024 Kentucky Derby: Odds, Trends & Best Bets

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The first Saturday in May is just days away and with it the 150th Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses will start at approximately 6:57 pm ET on Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Let’s get into the Derby odds, trends, and best bets.

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2024 Kentucky Derby Trends & Best Bets

Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1930

1 – Dornach (20-1) – (Post 1 winners – 8, Most Recent – Ferdinand, 1986)

2 – Sierra Leone (3-1) – (Post 2 winners – 7, Most Recent – Affirmed, 1978)

3 – Mystic Dan (20-1) – (Post 3 winners – 5, Most Recent – Real Quiet, 1998)

4 – Catching Freedom (8-1) – (Post 4 winners – 5, Most Recent – Super Saver, 2010)

5 – Catalytic (30-1) – (Post 5 winners – 10, Most Recent – Always Dreaming, 2017)

6 – Just Steel (20-1) – (Post 6 winners – 2, Most Recent – Sea Hero, 1993)

7 – Honor Marie (20-1) – (Post 8 winners – 8, Most Recent – Mandaloun, 2021)

8 – Just a Touch (10-1) – (Post 8 winners – 9, Most Recent – Mage, 2023)

9 – T O Password (30-1) â€“ (Post 9 winners – 4, Most Recent – Riva Ridge, 1972)

10 – Forever Young (10-1) â€“ (Post 10 winners – 9, Most Recent – Giacomo, 2005)

11 – Track Phantom (20-1) â€“ (Post 11 winners – 2, Most Recent – Winning Colors, 1988)

12 – West Saratoga (50-1) – (Post 12 winners – 3, Most Recent – Canonero II, 1971)

13 – Endlessly (30-1) â€“ (Post 13 winners – 4, Most Recent – Nyquist, 2016)

14 – Domestic Product (30-1) – (Post 14 winners – 2, Most Recent – Carry Back, 1961)

15 – Grand Mo the First (50-1) – (Post 15 winners – 6, Most Recent – Authentic, 2020)

16 – Fierceness (5-2) – (Post 16 winners – 4, Most Recent – Animal Kingdom, 2011)

17 – Stronghold (20-1) – (Post 17 winners – 0)

18 – Resilience (20-1) – (Post 18 winners – 2, Most Recent – Country House, 2019)

19 – Society Man (50-1) – (Post 19 winners – 1, Most Recent – I’ll Have Another, 2012)

20 – Epic Ride (30-1) – (Post 20 winners – 2, Most Recent – Rich Strike, 2022)

Trend-Based Bad Bets

There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets” for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win on Derby Day. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven.

Forever Young & T O Password – While I do believe it is only a matter of time before a Japanese-bred horse wins the Derby, a bet for this to be the year is not the way to go based on historical data, but an undefeated, 5-win Forever Young appears to have a better chance than most before him heading into this year. T O Password is similarly undefeated at 2-0 but not nearly as tested as Forever Young and as such is not a threat to buck this trend.

Just a Touch & T O Password – Neither of these horses ran a race as a 2-year-old and only three such horses have ever won the Kentucky Derby: Apollo (1882), Justify (2018), and Mage (2023). The former “Curse of Apollo” that Triple Crown winner Justify broke back five years ago was so feared that owners would (and still do) pressure trainers to get at least one race in as juveniles, even if they aren’t truly race-ready, just to avoid being a part of this negative trend. It is incredibly difficult for colts to have the proper racing foundation for the Derby’s 1 1/8 mile run, beginning to race only as a 3-year-old. Even in the years since a generational talent like Justify bucked this trend, horses fitting this criterion are a combined 1-for-12 in the Derby with none even coming close to hitting the board outside of Mage with the closest finishing 10th. Password is out for sure but Just a Touch is the son of Justify so if any horse has the pedigree to win under these conditions, it’s one whose dad accomplished the same feat.

Winning Trends

Who’s Your Daddy?

Pedigree matters, especially in recent years, as 12 of the previous 15 Kentucky Derby champions have been sired by stallions that won at least one Grade 1 race of 1 1/16 miles or farther. In past years, this has narrowed the entrants down more but this year’s field comes from very successful sires with around 3/4 of the field fitting this criteria so we’re going to have to look elsewhere as this decreases the relevance of this historically accurate metric.

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

Furthermore, historically, of the previous 69 Kentucky Derby champions, only two have won after extended layoffs of six weeks or more. Those two horses were Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Authentic in 2020. In fact, each of the last 11 winners’ final preps were within 7 weeks of the Derby. The lone 7-week layoff belonging to Authentic, whose 2020 layoff has the asterisk of being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic where every horse’s prep schedule was askew thanks to the rescheduled late summer race. The traditional Kentucky Derby prep schedule was completely thrown off in 2020 so that makes one out of the last 68 “traditional” champs coming off layoffs of more than five weeks. Again, this does very little to pare down the remaining field and leaves us with 12 horses: Dornach, Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Forever Young, Resilience, Just Steel, Just a Touch, Society Man, Catalytic, Mystik Dan, Grand Mo the First, Epic Ride.

Winner, Winner Plus JUST a Little Extra

Since 1980, 29-of-40 horses have won their final prep race before the Derby. If you include the ultimately disqualified Maximum Security in 2019, 10 of the last 13 horses to cross the finish line first at the Kentucky Derby have entered the race coming off of a victory in their final prep race. I will open this trend to include horses that finished 2nd in their final prep race while also posting a speed rating of 100+ like Mage did last year. Top winners tend to string wins together so this one should come as no surprise and we can pare down the remaining field to eight horses: Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Forever Young, Stronghold, Endlessly, and Resilience all won their final prep races. The seventh and eighth horses I’m keeping are Just a Touch and Just Steel, who I am keeping in based on both of them posting 101 and 100 speed, respectively, despite finishing 2nd in their final prep races.

BONUS: Jockey Trend

Flavian Prat has run in the Kentucky Derby six times and has never finished worse than second…in six races. In fact, his lone Derby victory was by DQ so he has technically crossed the finish line second in all six races. Just something to take note of. Catching Freedom may already have shorter 8-1 odds but the jockey he has under him gives those odds some juice, especially boxing him in Exactas.

Remaining Contenders’ Pedigrees

Sierra Leone (Gun Runner – Heavenly Love by Malibu Moon)

Fierceness (City of Light – Nonna Bella by Stay Thirsty)

Forever Young (JPN) (Real Steel (JPN) – Forever Darling by Congrats)

Stronghold (Ghostzapper – Spectator by Jimmy Creed)

Endlessly (Curlin – Winding Way by Malibu Moon)

Resilience (Into Mischief – Meadowsweet by Smart Strike)

Just Steel (Justify – Irish Lights (AUS) by Fastnet Rock (AUS))

Just a Touch (Justify – Touching Beauty by Tapit)

These eight horses are the best bets to either win or hit the board on Saturday. We can further apply more recent trends to these eight contenders and whittle them down even more.

  • 10 of the last 12 winners had never raced at Churchill Down prior to the Derby. This knocks out Stronghold and Just Steel.
  • None of the last 12 winners and just one of the last 41 won the Wood Memorial in their final prep race. This knocks out Resilience, despite him chasing down fellow Derby entrant Hit Show to win the Wood Memorial at 59-1 odds.
  • 7 of the last 12 champs had at least three previous victories. Four of the remaining five horses fit this: Fierceness, Forever Young, Sierra Leone, and Endlessly.
  • 11 of the last 12 to hit the winner’s circle drew posts either between 5-8 or 13-19. This leaves only Fierceness and Endlessly.

Final Thoughts

Despite the historic trends and the fact that no horse has won the Derby out of the 2-spot since Affirmed in 1978, I am rolling with Sierra Leone. He is a nose away from being undefeated and is a closer with a late kick for the ages (See Blue Grass Stakes). He will have to overcome the crowded field and pass a lot of fast horses down the stretch but jockey Tyler Gaffalione is the perfect jockey to navigate the trip it will take.

Best Boxed Superfecta: Sierra Leone – Fierceness  â€“ Just a Touch – Catching Freedom – Stronghold  (2-16-8-16-17)

2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Previews, Picks & Predictions

Check out our previews for every horse competing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and our expert analysis on the best bets for this year’s Run for the Roses.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Odds

Post Position Horse Trainer Name Jockey Name Odds
1 Dornoch Danny Gargan Luis Saez 20-1
2 Sierra Leone Chad Brown Tyler Gaffalione 3-1
3 Mystik Dan Kenny McPeek Brian Hernandez Jr. 20-1
4 Catching Freedom Brad Cox Flavien Prat 8-1
5 Catalytic Saffie Joseph Jr. Jose Ortiz 30-1
6 Just Steel D. Wayne Lukas Keith Asmussen 20-1
7 Honor Marie Whit Beckman Ben Curtis 20-1
8 Just a Touch Brad Cox Florent Geroux 10-1
9 Encino Brad Cox Axel Concepcion 20-1
9 T O Password Daisuke Takayanagi Kazushi Kimura 30-1
10 Forever Young Yoshito Yahagi Ryusei Sakai 10-1
11 Track Phantom Steve Asmussen Joel Rosario 20-1
12 West Saratoga Larry Demeritte Jesus Castanon 50-1
13 Endlessly Michael McCarthy Umberto Rispoli 30-1
14 Domestic Product Chad Brown Irad Ortiz Jr. 30-1
15 Grand Mo the First Victor Barboza Jr. Emisael Jaramillo 50-1
16 Fierceness Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 5-2
17 Stronghold Phil D’Amato Antonio Fresu 20-1
18 Resilience Bill Mott Junior Alvarado 20-1
19 Society Man Danny Gargan Frankie Dettori 50-1
20* Epic Ride John Ennis Adam Beschizza 50-1

* Epic Ride is replacing Encino.

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