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2024 Kentucky Derby Picks: Just Steel, Honor Marie, T O Password

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The Kentucky Derby is one of the most prestigious and highly-anticipated events in the world of horse racing. Held annually on the first Saturday in May, the Kentucky Derby attracts horse racing enthusiasts from all over the world. The Derby is a 1 1/4 mile race for three-year-old thoroughbreds and is often referred to as "the most exciting two minutes in sports." Let’s take a look at the current 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions, and expert advice for Just Steel, Honor Marie, and T O Password heading into the 150th Run for the Roses.

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2023 Kentucky Derby Predictions: Just Steel

  • Post Position: 6
  • Odds: 20-1

Just Steel is the son of Triple Crown champ, Justify. Unlike his sire who famously broke Apollo's Curse winning Derby without racing as a juvenile, Just Steel raced seven times as a 2-year old. Has yet to win a race longer than 6 1/2 furlongs, which sounds about right for the great-grandson of champion sprinter Ghostzapper. However, he ran a strong second at Arkansas Derby (G1) to winner Muth who is unable to race in Derby due to being trained by Bob Baffert so Just Steel's recent form is strong.

Has second to fellow Derby entrant Mystik Dan in "muddy" conditions at Southwest Stakes (G3) which exhibits ability to hit the board in any conditions making him an excellent exotic inclusion.

– Luke Monaldo

Bet: Can Hit the Board, Use in Exotics

2023 Kentucky Derby Predictions: Honor Marie

  • Post Position: 7
  • Odds: 20-1

Honor Marie is 2-2-0 in five career races with one of those seconds coming by just one length to Catching Freedom at last month's Louisiana Derby. The son of Honor Code has been the talk of the town with word that Honor Marie has been training well with Whit Beckman. Honor Marie has two wins in three tries at Churchill Down including late last year in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G3).

He has shown ability to compete around two turns and has a chance to win with a perfect trip or the falter of favorites. Can easily it the board as he has in 80% of his career races. The 7-post position has produced the Derby victor eight times (tied for 4th most all-time).

– Luke Monaldo

Bet: Win, Use in Exotics

2023 Kentucky Derby Predictions: T O Password

  • Post Position: 10
  • Odds: 30-1

He is 2-for-2 in Japan, however, a Japanese-bred horse has never won the Kentucky Derby. That trend has is bound to change sooner rather than later with the breeding advances in Japan but that day is not this week. If it is, it would likely be his fellow country-horse Forever Young.

He also barely hung on for a win at 1 1/8 mile in the Fukuryu Stakes indicating the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Derby, combined ith the extreme increasein caliber of competition, may be a bridge too far but could add value to back end of exotics.

– Luke Monaldo

Bet: Toss / Use in Back End of Exotics

2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Previews, Picks & Predictions

Check out our previews for every horse competing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and our expert analysis on the best bets for this year's Run for the Roses.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Odds

Post Position Horse Trainer Name Jockey Name Odds
1 Dornoch Danny Gargan Luis Saez 20-1
2 Sierra Leone Chad Brown Tyler Gaffalione 3-1
3 Mystik Dan Kenny McPeek Brian Hernandez Jr. 20-1
4 Catching Freedom Brad Cox Flavien Prat 8-1
5 Catalytic Saffie Joseph Jr. Jose Ortiz 30-1
6 Just Steel D. Wayne Lukas Keith Asmussen 20-1
7 Honor Marie Whit Beckman Ben Curtis 20-1
8 Just a Touch Brad Cox Florent Geroux 10-1
9 Encino Brad Cox Axel Concepcion 20-1
10 T O Password Daisuke Takayanagi Kazushi Kimura 30-1
11 Forever Young Yoshito Yahagi Ryusei Sakai 10-1
12 Track Phantom Steve Asmussen Joel Rosario 20-1
13 West Saratoga Larry Demeritte Jesus Castanon 50-1
14 Endlessly Michael McCarthy Umberto Rispoli 30-1
15 Domestic Product Chad Brown Irad Ortiz Jr. 30-1
16 Grand Mo the First Victor Barboza Jr. Emisael Jaramillo 50-1
17 Fierceness Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 5-2
18 Stronghold Phil D'Amato Antonio Fresu 20-1
19 Resilience Bill Mott Junior Alvarado 20-1
20 Society Man Danny Gargan Frankie Dettori 50-1
21* Epic Ride John Ennis Adam Beschizza 50-1
22* Mugatu Jeff Engler Joe Talamo 50-1

* Epic Ride is replacing Encino. Mugatu would replace any other scratches ahead of the weekend.

More Kentucky Derby Betting Advice

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