2024 Masters Odds & Picks: Top Long Shot Sleepers

by Bo McBrayer |
Apr 09, 2024

Major championship golf is rich with storylines. The Masters summons some of the most potent nostalgia and catharsis of any of the four tournaments, starting with our first strolling shot down Magnolia Lane. The best golfers in the world collide at the unparalleled Augusta National Golf Club, one of the most exclusive memberships on the planet. The past champions, with ceremonial green jackets donned with the signature map and flag insignia, return like the swallows of Capistrano to dine with the gods and mere men who have mastered the magnolias and azaleas in similar fashion.

Not all those who graced the Butler Cabin after 72 holes meandering past Raeâ€™s Creek and shuffling through pine straw without a single unkempt needle were favored to claim victory. Some were sleepers. An even smaller number were first-timers. Others answer to names that were unknown to the passive golf fan until that fateful spring Sunday. This is an ode to them. The long shots.

2024 Masters: Long Shot Odds, Picks & Predictions

Augusta National is more enigmatic than difficult. It does not build character nor the intestinal fortitude to press on through Amen Corner. It merely reveals ones mettle and golfing aptitude, even if that individual didnâ€™t necessarily see it within himself. From a bomberâ€™s tipped distance of more than 7,550 yards, to Bentgrass surfaces that resemble undulating sheets of glass, the one who Jon Rahm will adorn in green and gold come Sunday need not be favored in high regard by the oddsmakers. He can simply be the one who elevates their play like the approach on hole 18. Here are the long shots I will be betting on this week.

Denny McCarthy

The string of masterful performances to finish in second place has not gone unnoticed. Denny McCarthy has a worldclass short game. He tied a PGA Tour record this past week with only 92 putts in 72 holes. Chipping and putting carry enormous weight at the Masters, so if McCarthy can continue his hot form from tee to green, his 80-1 line is grossly mis-priced.

Justin Rose

A peculiar name popped up at ninth in my weighted statistical model. Tour veteran Justin Rose is incredibly solid around the green and is fantastic on approaches of more than 200 yards. The Englishman has seen Augusta National many times now, which also plays in his favor. He is going off at 130-1 right now on DraftKings Sportsbook. It would be really difficult for me to not at least place a top-20 bet on him.

Phil Mickelson

Three-time Masters champion and defending runner-up Phil Mickelson is currently going off at 200-1 odds. Itâ€™s just wrong. Lefty might be the most talented golfer in history and has had as much success around these hallowed grounds as anyone. Throw a few bucks on his outright and take solace that a top-20 finish is a lead pipe lock at +450.

Matthieu Pavon

The fiery Frenchman is quietly having one of the most consistently good seasons on Tour in 2024. Matthieu Pavon is making his Masters debut, but donâ€™t take that inexperience as a weakness in his case. He is an accurate player from tee to green and his strength is around the green. Should the conditions be more difficult than they normally are at Augusta, Pavon has the chops to grind out important pars and trudge up the leaderboard at 200-1 odds.

Individual Golfer Previews, Picks & Predictions

Check out our previews for each of the top golfers competing for a Green Jacket this week.

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