2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta: Odds, Picks & Predictions
The Mexico Open at Vidanta is sandwiched between the West Coast and Florida swings on the PGA Tour like a tasty torta. Many of the top golfers in the world are using this week to prime themselves for the Bermuda grass and gator-infested lagoons next week. This leaves golf bettors with a plethora of lesser-known golfers to wager upon south of the border. The opportunity to make serious headway in the bankroll department has me very excited.
This tournament graces Vidanta Vallarta for the third time. The Greg Norman design is a daunting 7,400-plus yards at sea level. The subtropical climate ensures incredible weather and all the amenities that complement resort golf. Although the par-71 layout is among the easier on Tour, there are a handful of holes that score out to be in the top-50 most difficult this season.
2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)
Ball-striking and converting scoring opportunities weigh heavily in my analysis this week. This produced a multi-faceted bouquet of golfers who span from favorites to nearly completely unknown Tour rookies. Long hitters hold a distinct advantage off the tee, especially if they can also excel on approach distances of more than 175 yards. Eleven of the 18 holes at Vidanta fall in that range onto the Paspalum greens. Short game and bogey avoidance are also pretty important, despite the reputation for easier scoring conditions. I also only went back 24 rounds to encapsulate a bias for good recent form. Pásame la sal y el limón, por favor. Let’s tee off.
Nicolai Hojgaard
I love the 22-year-old rising star from Denmark’s game. He is a bomber with a short game to boot. Defending champion Tony Finau is the heavy betting favorite but is in abysmal recent form by his standards. Finau came in at 97th in my stat model, making him one of the easiest fades of all time. Hojgaard has been getting a lot of betting love since his number opened, but the price is still fine for me. He is as game as anyone to take this event.
Picks: Outright +1400 [1u]
Taylor Pendrith
I kept shuffling my model like a deck of cards, trying different weights on various stats. The Canadian Taylor Pendrith came up aces every time. He was No. 1 in this field by such a margin that I simply couldn’t avert my attention in good conscience. Pendrith is a birdie machine, especially over his past 24 rounds. He gains strokes in bunches with an incredible combination of power off the tee and precision on approach between 175-200 yards. Don’t overthink it. Pendrith is a live one this week.
Picks: Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-5 +550 [1u]; Top-10 +280 [1u]
Jake Knapp
The 29-year-old from SoCal is a near shoo-in for PGA Tour Rookie of the Year at this point. He has ridiculous power and sports an outstanding short game. His outstanding run stretches back to last year when he was utterly dominant on the Korn Ferry Tour. The stats back up my gut. I am supremely confident that Jake Knapp will gain some serious street cred with his showing at Vidanta.
Picks: Outright +4000 [1u]; Top-10 +400 [1u]
Ryo Hisatsune
Another young gun, why not? The 21-year-old Japanese phenom, Ryo Hisatsune, is perhaps the hottest golfer on the planet at present. Although not the sharpest with the flat stick, young Ryo is both adept at making a ton of birdies and avoiding costly bogeys. He is the absolute best in this field at gaining strokes on par-4s. Like Knapp, Hisatsune’s name recognition is on a steep ascent.
Picks: Outright +4500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +400 [1u]
Garrick Higgo
My betting card has a distinct theme. Garrick Higgo is a very long hitter from South Africa and one of the best putters in this field. He isn’t always good at avoiding the occasional implosion, but he is still a bargain at a waning 90-1 line. The main stat that gave me the requisite confidence to bet on Higgo was his prowess in the main approach bucket of 175-200 yards. He is also fifth in this field in birdie-or-better rate over his last 24 rounds.
Picks: Outright +9000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +330 [0.5u]
Ben Kohles
Shhh… Keep your voice at a whisper with this one. Ben Kohles opened at 130-1 and has somehow slipped to 200-1 as of Tuesday night. He ranked 16th in my model, thanks to his prowess in the almighty 175-200 yard range on approach. Whereas Kohles is far from a bomber, he is strong in virtually every other pertinent area this week. His form at the RSM Classic in November, where he finished in a tie for fifth place, opened my eyes to his potential in this type of event.
Picks: Outright +20000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +550 [0.5u]
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: