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2024 Mexico Open At Vidanta: PGA Best Weekend Picks

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The leaderboard at the 2024 Mexico Open has been a carousel through two rounds. Now that the cut line has been enforced, the remaining golfers, T50 and up, will compete at Vidanta Vallarta for a chance to seize the outright win and the $1.458 million purse allotted to the winner.

This is the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta, which has previously seen Tony Finau dominate in 2022 and 2023, finishing runner-up to Jon Rahm in 2022, before grabbing the outright win last year at -24-under-par following a nearly flawless four-round performance. Finau is still in position at T9 to make a run, but there are a lot of other players who have been dialed in with their drivers, irons, and putters to challenge the defending champion over the weekend.

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2024 Genesis Invitational: Best Weekend Picks

These plays are .5u and .75u, or 0.5% and 0.75% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jake Knapp (+400): 0.75u

After a T3 finish at The Farmers Insurance Open a month ago, 29-year-old Jake Knapp has come out swinging at Vidanta. The Californian has fluctuated in four events played this season, bouncing between a T70 and missed cut, to a T3 and T28 most recently at the WM Phoenix Open. Knapp opened at -4-under-par and turned it up a notch on Friday at Vidanta, going -7-under-par thanks to his driver and irons. Knapp ranks 22nd in driving distance, 35th strokes gained tee-to-green, and 29th strokes gained around the green. His putter isn’t bad either, ranked 52nd in strokes gained putting, showing off his complimentary game. Tied for the current lead, let’s stake 0.75 units on Knapp despite short +400 odds as the current outright favorite.

Alvaro Ortiz (+1200): 0.50u

Alvaro Ortiz has logged an identical scorecard to Knapp in terms of Round 1 and Round 2 finishes, going 67-64 heading into the weekend. A native of Guadalajara, Mexico, Ortiz has easily played his best golf at Vidanta this season, as his other four finishes include three missed cuts, along with a T36 at The Panama Championship earlier this month. He’s been in a rhythm with his driver and approach shots, missing a few putts for birdie from inside of 20 feet on Friday, but he did go bogey-free in Round 2, surging atop the leaderboard thanks to an eagle on the 15th hole par 5. Since he’s unproven down the stretch without a career win, we’re going to stake just 0.50 units on Ortiz, although he’s firmly in the driver seat entering Round 3.

Mark Hubbard (+1800): 0.50u

Mark Hubbard bounced back in a big way on Friday at Vidanta after going -2-under-par on Thursday. The 34-year-old American is another in the field searching for his first career win on the PGA Tour, experiencing some success at Vidanta in the previous two editions. Hubbard finished T51 in 2022, while improving to T18 in 2023 with a final round of -5-under-par. Hubbard just went -6-under-par on Friday, draining nine birdies, including four on the last five holes, showcasing his talent with his approach shot and putter. Ranked 13th strokes gained on approach, Hubbard’s positioning himself nicely at T6 entering Saturday’s third round to remain a contender in the outright market. Let’s wager half a unit on Hubbard to finally seal his first win on the PGA Tour this weekend at Vidanta.

Emiliano Grillo (+3500): 0.50u

Emiliano Grillo has had a couple of solid rounds at Vidanta so far this time, despite starting with a bogey and finishing with a double bogey in Round 2. If not for the final hole implosion thanks to a water shot, Grillo would be T6 at -8-under-par. Even at -6-under-par and sitting T9, the Argentinian has what it takes to make a run on Saturday. Grillo showcased his talents at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, ending a seven-year win drought. Ranked 23rd strokes gained putting, Grillo holds an edge with his flat stick. Plus he’s 27th in driving accuracy percentage, avoiding bad lies, which is big on any course. At +3500 odds in the outright betting market, a 0.50 unit wager is a solid investment to make on Grillo, who managed a T5 finish here in 2023.

Patrick Rodgers (+3500): 0.50u

Patrick Rodgers has been very consistent at Vidanta and it’s shown in his play this week. Sitting T9 at -6-under-par, Rodgers regressed with a -1-under-par outing in Round 2, exchanging birdies and bogeys fairly frequently. He’ll need to clean up the bogeys, but Rodgers does impress off-the-tee, ranked 26th in driving distance. Rodgers is also 11th for greens in regulation hit at 75.16 percent, consistently giving himself birdie opportunities. If he can manage to stay inside the top-ten entering the final round on Sunday, Rodgers is a nice investment due to ranking 14th in Round 4 scoring average. Let’s stake 0.50 units on Rodgers at +3500 in the outright PGA Tour betting market.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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