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2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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The third annual Mexico Open at Vidanta is set to get underway from Vidanta Vallarta this Thursday. Set on the western shores of Mexico, it’ll be a much different field than the ones we’ve seen compete in recent events. Tony Finau is the defending champion and currently sits at +900 odds as the favorite in the PGA Tour outright betting market, followed by Nicolai Højgaard at +1400 and Keith Mitchell at +2200 odds to round out the top-three favorites.

We nailed Nick Taylor at +17000 for a huge win in the outright betting market at the WM Phoenix Open a couple of weeks ago, while nearly hitting two in a row with Will Zalatoris at +6000, falling just short at The Genesis Invitational this past weekend. We’re dialed in at the moment, and now, we get a fairly new event and a course that is set up to be a birdie-fest with a lot of golfers seeking their first outright win on the PGA Tour.

It’s going to be an exciting four days on the warm, tropical shores at Vidanta, so let’s dive right into the outright betting market to find players with realistic longshot odds that can win outright at the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta.

2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .25u and .10 u, or 0.25% and 0.10% of your betting bankroll. Odds used exclusively from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Joseph Bramlett (+8000)

We haven’t seen Joseph Bramlett perform well at all through four events in 2024. The 35-year-old golfer from California has yet to post a T20 finish this season, although he did manage a T25 during the Farmers Insurance Open last month at -6-under-par. Bramlett improved from a missed cut during the inaugural Mexico Open at Vidanta in 2022, all the way up to a T10 finish last year, finishing -4-under-par or better in his last two rounds following the cut.

At +8000 odds in the outright betting market, we should invest a quarter unit on Bramlett to get back into a rhythm at a relatively friendly course. He’s 49th in strokes gained putting and 44th in par 3 birdie or better leaders, which he’ll enjoy with five par 3 holes at Vidanta.

Andrew Novak (+17000)

Andrew Novak is coming off of his first T10 finish of the season at the WM Phoenix Open, going -13-under-par to wind up T8. During his previous trips to Vidanta, Novak has had mixed results, going from a T15 finish in 2022, down to a T49 finish in 2023. Two of the rounds last year, however, combined for -7-under-par, but the second and fourth rounds saw the 28-year-old North Carolina native finish over par to derail any chance of contending with Tony Finau and Jon Rahm.

We’re hitting Novak at the right time based on his recent form and it also helps that he’s ranked 33rd in total strokes gained, including 10th approaching the green and 31st in total driving efficiency. Ranking 9th in fairway proximity and playing on wide fairways will boost Novak’s confidence early, while his ability to record saves out of sand traps makes him a viable candidate to sprinkle on with a 0.10 unit wager at +17000 odds in the outright betting market this week.

Davis Riley (+17000)

Finally, we’ve come to Davis Riley. +17000 feels highly mispriced, especially since Riley won his first PGA Tour event at the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans last year. He also came close to a second outright win at Valspar in 2022, losing in a playoff to Sam Burns. Riley’s been quiet lately, missing three consecutive cuts after a T52 at Sentry and a forgettable 78th-place finish at Pebble Beach. In fact, we’ve only seen one round below 70, which was a 65 at the American Express. However, Riley played well at Vidanta in his lone appearance back in 2022, finishing in fifth-place at -15-under-par. It was only two strokes back from Jon Rahm, who won at -17-under-par during the inaugural edition of the Mexico Open.

As bad as Riley has played in 2024, a 0.10 unit wager at these lucrative odds doesn’t hurt, as we had Nick Taylor cash this number for us at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. Riley ranks 40th in total driving, including 36th for longest drives, sixth in driving efficiency, and 17th in par 4 birdie or better leaders. He dominates the final round, but will need to get off to a much better start than we’ve seen at a course that should yield plenty of birdie opportunities for Riley to regain momentum in search of his second PGA Tour win.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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