2024 MLB Home Run Derby: New Rules, Strategy & Picks
The time has come for one of the most fun yearly MLB events. The first half of the MLB season has gone by and it’s time for another All-Star week, starting with the Home Run Derby on Monday at Globe Life Field in Texas.
Pete Alonso is the odds-on favorite to win the event and is participating in his fifth straight Home Run Derby. Marcell Ozuna, Gunnar Henderson, Adolis Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez and Alec Bohm join him in the field.
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New Home Run Derby Rules
The rules have once again changed in the Home Run Derby. Last year’s event in Seattle was an eight-person, single-elimination bracket with the No. 1 seed facing the No. 8 seed, the No. 2 seed facing the No. 7 seed and so on. The seeding was based on how many home runs each player hit up to that point.
This year, there are no head-to-head matchups in round one. Instead, all eight hitters will go up against each other. There is also a new pitch limit in place. The first two rounds will be up to three minutes, and the last round will be up to two minutes, but a maximum number of pitches can be thrown. The first two rounds will be either three minutes or 40 pitches thrown, whichever comes first, and the finals will conclude when either two minutes are finished or 27 pitches are thrown.
After round one, the four batters who hit the most home runs will advance to the semi-finals. At that point, they will be seeded based on how many home runs they hit in that opening round with the No. 1 seed taking on the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed taking on the No. 3 seed. The winners of each semi-final matchup will advance to the championship.
2024 MLB Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Adolis Garcia to Win Outright (+500)
Last year, the hometown contestant was Julio Rodriguez in Seattle. He put on an absolute show in the opening round, upsetting No. 2 seed Pete Alonso with 41 home runs which broke the record for the most home runs in a single round, besting Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2019 semi-final total of 40. He wound up using a lot of his energy in that round as he only hit 20 home runs in the next round where he lost to Guerrero.
This year’s hometown contestant is Adolis Garcia, who appeared in his first Home Run Derby last season. He fell in round one to Randy Arozarena as he was only able to hit 17 home runs. With a year under his best in this contest and now a chance to hit in his home ballpark, I like his chances to win the whole event outright.
Garcia finds himself right in the middle of the group in the odds behind Pete Alonso, Marcell Ozuna and Gunnar Henderson. He hasn’t gotten off to the best start on the season at the plate, hitting just .214 with 17 home runs as of July 13. But as we saw last year, stats in actual games only mean so much in this event as Guerrero won it despite having only hit 13 home runs up to that point in the season.
With the new rules this year where it is everyone against everyone in round one to advance to the semi-finals, I like how it’s set up for Garcia in his home ballpark paired with him being a little more used to hitting in the event this year after getting a taste of competing in it last season.
League of Winner: American League (-115)
The two favorites to win the Home Run Derby are both in the National League in Pete Alonso and Marcell Ozuna. Nonetheless, Adolis Garcia is my pick to win the event and I also believe Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. have a chance to make some noise.
Of the two contestants least likely to win the event, according to the odds, I give Jose Ramirez a much better shot to have a chance of advancing to the semi-finals than Alec Bohm, so that is another reason why I give the edge to the American League to be where the ultimate winner plays.
While Alonso and Ozuna are the two favorites to win, Henderson, Garcia and Witt all sit right behind them.
One other reason I like the winner to be from the American League is because the American League is the favorite to be the league with the most total home runs hit at -120. If that ends up being the case, there is a better chance the batter standing on top at the end will come from the American League.