2024 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Picks & Predictions
Many Major League Baseball fans will be disappointed to watch an MLB Home Run Derby that does not feature some of the game’s best sluggers in Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. However, there is still plenty to get excited about with this eight-man field, which offers an interesting blend of first-time participants and grizzled veterans.
Two of the first-time participants figure to be compared throughout their entire careers as the players that will carry the torch for American League shortstops, as Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. not only vie for this derby title but will also earn plenty of American League MVP votes this season. The other first-time participants are Marcell Ozuna, who has the fifth-most career home runs of any player making their derby debut, Teoscar Hernandez, who is seeking to become the first Dodgers hitter to capture the derby title and Alec Bohm, who would earn the title of fewest home runs hit by an eventual derby champion.
Among the veterans, Mets slugger Pete Alonso is the first player to compete in five straight derbies and would join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only hitters to win three career MLB Home Run Derby titles with a victory on Monday. Then there is the hometown factor, as Adolis Garcia looks to put on a show in front of Texas Rangers fans, while Jose Ramirez looks for a better result after losing in the first round in 2022 to eventual champion Juan Soto.
Here are our top 2024 MLB Home Run Derby picks and predictions for Monday’s event. One major thing to take note of entering this year’s MLB Home Run Derby is the completely changed format, as ESPN highlighted:
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
2024 MLB Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions
(2024 MLB Home Run Derby Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bobby Witt Jr. to Win the Home Run Derby (+475)
Bobby Witt Jr.’s odds have shortened considerably from +700 to +475, and it is not difficult to see why. While this is his first-ever derby at the MLB level, he can draw on the experience of winning the 2018 High School Home Run Derby, where he beat Cincinnati Reds rookie Rece Hinds in the final. Witt dazzled in that event, hitting eight home runs in 76 seconds, so he can definitely get into a groove in a short period.
Witt’s 16 home runs may be tied for fourth among all shortstops entering Sunday, but while he is not as big in stature as some of the other derby participants, it does not mean he lacks power. Seven of Witt’s 16 home runs went past 425 feet, which is the most of any player in the field — an important statistic to monitor considering the bonus time allotted for 425+ feet home runs (Witt’s longest home run of the season is a whopping 468 feet).
Witt will be motivated by the fact that no Royals player has ever advanced to the second round of the Home Run Derby. While the pressure may get to Adolis Garcia hitting in front of his home fans, Witt will have plenty of fan support albeit in a much more muted fashion. He grew up 20 minutes away from Globe Life Field, so he will have plenty of friends and family in attendance. He would become the fifth player to win a Home Run Derby in his birth state, joining Giancarlo Stanton, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire and Eric Davis.
The biggest motivating factor for picking Witt is that the new format should minimize the advantage hitters like Alonso, Ramirez, and Garcia have as players who have competed before. In addition, the timed structure allows for more recovery time and should help to keep players’ energy levels up, which would seem to not put as much emphasis on being bigger and more muscular to last all three rounds.
History is against Alonso (there has been only one hitter to win three times) and Garcia (only three people in derby history have won in their home ballpark, and none have done so since 2018), which makes Witt’s odds more appealing.
Jose Ramirez to Make the Semi-Finals (+160)
Jose Ramirez’s 17 home runs were the lowest first-round total of all eight Home Run Derby participants in 2022. However, we learned later Ramirez was playing with an injured thumb, which required offseason surgery. He was hitting with that injury in the derby that year.
Ramirez’s 23 home runs were tied for fifth-most in the league entering Sunday, and he is already one dinger shy of matching his 2023 total. He should have an advantage over most of the contestants if he chooses to hit left-handed, as the dimensions at Globe Life Field are shorter in right field. Fifteen of Ramirez’s 23 home runs have come from the left side of the plate. He has the power necessary for bonus time, as his longest home run of the season is 436 feet. Perhaps Ramirez will be the biggest beneficiary of the new non-bracket format in the first round, as the idea of facing Soto in the first round, who ended up winning the Derby in 2022, may have impacted the way he approaches his round.
Ramirez is one of three players (Hernandez at +120 and Bohm at +205 are the others) with plus-money odds to reach the semi-finals, but all he needs to do so is finish in the top four of home runs after the first round, which makes these odds a great value.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.