2024 NCAA Tournament East Region Betting Primer (March Madness)
Allow me to open this East Region primer with a complaint. The NCAA Tournament selection committee absolutely stinks at their job. And the East Region is a prime example.
Someone explain to me how Connecticut, the top overall seed, wound up in a region featuring the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 Tournament champions. Oh, and they could face a team that went to the Final Four last year in the second round.
That rant is a summary of my thoughts on this region: it is loaded with dangerous teams. But with this UConn bunch, will it even matter? Here’s a full betting primer of the East Region.
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NCAA Tournament East Region Betting Primer
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
(1) Connecticut Huskies (31-3 SU, 22-12 ATS, 17-17 O/U)
Odds: 4/1
Strengths: Is everything an option? The Huskies are loaded with talent and can beat you in a wide variety of ways and in a wide variety of games. They have star power in the backcourt and are anchored by 7-footer Donovan Clingan down low. They’re balanced, deep and damn good.
Weaknesses: The Huskies are an aggressive defense, which can occasionally get them into foul trouble. UConn ranked 175th in free throw rate on the defensive end. If you can get Clingan in foul trouble early, the door is open.
X-Factor: If freshman phenom Stephon Castle can reach another level in the tournament, then UConn could run away with back-to-back titles.
Prediction: While the path won’t be easy, the Huskies are the most complete team in the nation and should make another Final Four run.
(2) Iowa State Cyclones (27-7 SU, 24-10 ATS, 16-18 O/U)
Odds: 20/1
Strengths: The Cyclones are a suffocating defensive club that ranked second in adjusted efficiency and in turnover generation.
Weaknesses: Iowa State lacks a true star who can get them a bucket when they need it most. The Cyclones rank outside the top-100 in effective field goal percentage and can have major issues scoring if they aren’t creating turnovers and fast break opportunities. Iowa State also didn’t play a tremendous non-conference schedule, which might’ve cost it a 1-seed.
X-Factor: Guard Tamin Lipsey has to be the consistent driver of offense to ensure ISU limits its scoring droughts.
Prediction: The Cyclones have a tremendous coach and their defense gives it a shot to make it all the way. However, it feels like their dreams could fall just short of Phoenix.
(3) Illinois Fighting Illini (25-8 SU, 19-13-1 ATS, 23-10 O/U)
Odds: 30/1
Strengths: The Illini can score. They’re led by a superstar in Terrance Shannon Jr., and rank third in adjusted offensive efficiency. Not many teams in this field can keep up with Illinois in transition.
Weaknesses: The Illini are inconsistent and perhaps disinterested at times on the defensive end. They rank 97th in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is a dangerous metric for any team with national title aspirations.
X-Factor: Shannon has the talent to carry Illinois on his back, but one off night could doom them.
Prediction: Illinois’ lackluster defense catches up with it, perhaps sooner than anyone expects. I get 2021-22 Iowa Hawkeyes vibes from this team.
(4) Auburn Tigers (26-7 SU, 20-13 ATS, 14-19 O/U)
Odds: 16/1
Strengths: The Tigers have one of the best frontcourt duos in the country in Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams and they boast the nation’s sixth-best defense.
Weaknesses: Auburn fouls a ton and doesn’t have a trustworthy group of guards.
X-Factor: Guard play will dictate how far the SEC champions go.
Prediction: Auburn has enough talent and tenacity to make it to the second weekend, but their guard play will likely be exposed against elite competition.
(5) San Diego State Aztecs (24-10 SU, 13-19 ATS, 17-15 O/U)
Odds: 90/1
Strengths: Last year’s national runner up still defends at a high level and boasts a star in Jaedon LeDee.
Weaknesses: The Aztecs don’t have the same depth and scoring punch as last season. They’re particularly poor from the 3-point line.
X-Factor: LeDee needs to be the hero if SDSU is going to repeat last year’s run.
Prediction: The best-case scenario for the Aztecs looks to be a trip to the second weekend, as this team doesn’t have the upside of last year’s crew.
(6) BYU Cougars (23-10 SU, 20-13 ATS, 16-17 O/U)
Odds: 70/1
Strengths: The Cougars shoot threes at the second-most frequent rate in the country and make their fair share of them. They also rank 59th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: BYU is a true live by the three, die by the three type of team. While they rank second nationally in 2-point shooting percentage, their run will be determined from the perimeter.
X-Factor: Did I mention BYU needs to hit their threes? When they’re falling, they’re almost unbeatable. But when they’re not… just look at BYU’s loss in the Big 12 Tournament to Texas Tech. They shot 7-of-35 from three and lost by 14.
Prediction: BYU got matched up with arguably the weakest 11-seed, but a potential second-round matchup with Illinois would make for one heck of a scoring bonanza.
(7) Washington State Cougars (24-9 SU, 17-15-1 ATS, 14-17-2 O/U)
Odds: 140/1
Strengths: The Cougars exceeded expectations with a balanced offense that prioritizes getting to the rim, as well as a top-3o defense.
Weaknesses: Depth and experience are two of Wazzu’s bigger flaws, as well as poor free throw shooting that could come to bite them in a close game.
X-Factor: Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Myles Rice has the potential to win Wazzu a game or two in the dance.
Prediction: The Cougars are a very solid team, but their lack of experience makes them ripe for a first-round upset.
(8) Florida Atlantic Owls (25-8 SU, 16-17 ATS, 18-15 O/U)
Odds: 140/1
Strengths: FAU brought back most of last year’s Final Four team, giving them an abundance of experience on the grand stage. The Owls are a strong offensive team that thrives at scoring inside.
Weaknesses: Inconsistency and poor defense have plagued FAU throughout the season. The Owls rank outside the top 100 in all major defensive metrics.
X-Factor: Johnell Davis needs to recreate some magic from last year’s run, along with big man Vlad Goldin.
Prediction: FAU has the talent and potential to stage another run. However, this time, they’ll have the defending champs squarely in their path. Another Cinderella run likely isn’t on the horizon.
(9) Northwestern Wildcats (21-11 SU, 18-13-1 ATS, 19-13 O/U)
Odds: 100/1
Strengths: Northwestern is a resilient bunch that’s overcome a slew of injuries, including to shooting guard Ty Berry. They’re led by an elite guard in Boo Buie, who has buoyed Northwestern into becoming one of the nation’s best 3-point shooting teams.
Weaknesses: Northwestern’s defense is lackluster, to say the least. Opponents made 36% of their threes against the Cats, and big man Matthew Nicholson’s absence could loom large if he can’t return for the matchup against Goldin and FAU.
X-Factor: It’s all Boo Buie. He is good enough to lead Northwestern on a miraculous tournament run.
Prediction: A first-round exit feels most likely, especially if Nicholson isn’t healthy, leaving Northwestern’s interior defense exposed.
(10) Drake Bulldogs (28-6 SU, 18-15 ATS, 17-15-1 O/U)
Odds: 180/1
Strengths: The Bulldogs are a deep, experienced team that’s exceptional offensively, ranking top-40 in adjusted offensive efficiency and both 3-point and 2-point shooting percentage. The Bulldogs also take good care of the ball and clean up the defensive glass at the best rate in the nation.
Weaknesses: Defense isn’t exactly Drake’s strong suit, as the Bulldogs rank outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage.
X-Factor: You don’t see many 10-seeds draw such a favorable location, but the Bulldogs will play in Omaha, just two hours away from campus in Des Moines, Iowa. It could be a de facto home game.
Prediction: I like this Drake team to upset Washington State and put a scare into the Cyclones with their ball security.
(11) Duquesne Dukes (23-11 SU, 17-16 ATS, 9-23-1 O/U)
Odds: 600/1
Strengths: Duquesne enters the NCAA Tournament playing elite defense. The Dukes rank seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency over their last 10 games. They also turn teams over at a top-50 rate.
Weaknesses: Duquesne is a rather lousy offensive team that didn’t beat any teams of note besides College of Charleston.
X-Factor: Perimeter defense will be critical against a BYU team that loves to chuck threes. Duquesne ranked 55th in 3-point defense this season.
Prediction: Duquesne has gone on an impressive run, but one that likely ends in the first round.
(12) UAB Blazers (22-11 SU, 19-12-1 ATS, 28-14 O/U)
Odds: 800/1
Strengths: UAB pulls down offensive rebounds and gets to the foul line at top-25 rates.
Weaknesses: The Blazers are a poor shooting team that doesn’t do much well on the defensive end.
X-Factor: Yaxel Lendeborg will need to be a beast on the glass if the Blazers are to have a shot.
Prediction: Among all the 12 seeds, UAB feels the least likely to pull off an upset.
(13) Yale Bulldogs (21-9 SU, 15-10-3 ATS, 16-12 O/U)
Odds: 800/1
Strengths: Yale has a steady, reliable group that takes care of the ball and pounds the defensive glass.
Weaknesses: The Bulldogs are vulnerable against the three, ranking 193rd in perimeter defense while allowing a high volume of shots from beyond the arc.
X-Factor: Yale’s defensive rebounding prowess could be massive against an Auburn team that loves to crash the offensive glass.
Prediction: Yale has serious potential to pull off an upset, so long as they can hold off on the interior.
(14) Morehead State Eagles (26-8 SU, 19-11 ATS, 15-15 O/U)
Odds: 1,000/1
Strengths: Morehead State plays at a slow pace but can fill it up. The Eagles take a ton of threes, make 35% of them on average, and rank 20th in 2-point percentage. Oh, and the Eagles corral offensive rebounds. They also keep teams off the 3-point line and rank ninth in effective field goal percentage defensively. This is a giant killer profile.
Weaknesses: The Eagles nearly beat Indiana, but were obliterated by Alabama, Purdue, and Penn State this year. Their biggest flaw is they are careless with the ball and send teams to the free throw line too often.
X-Factor: Ohio Valley Player of the Year Riley Minix is the go-to guy who could be a handful for opponents.
Prediction: Watch out… Morehead State could be this year’s Cinderella.
(15) South Dakota State Jackrabbits (22-12 SU, 16-15 ATS, 15-15-1 O/U)
Odds: 2,000/1
Strengths: The Jackrabbits can really shoot the ball, ranking 19th in effective field goal percentage. They’re led by a star guard, Zeke Mayo, who is capable of taking over games.
Weaknesses: The Jackrabbits can get exploited from 3-point range, ranking 361st in 3-point rate and 265th in 3-point defense. In other words, South Dakota State allows a ton of threes and doesn’t defend them well.
X-Factor: Pass the Mayo, because he could keep South Dakota State in this game much longer than anyone thinks.
Prediction: Don’t be surprised if SDST covers against Iowa State. However, an upset feels unlikely.
(16) Stetson Hatters (22-12 SU, 16-15 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U)
Odds: 5,000/1
Strengths: Stetson takes and makes a high amount of threes.
Weaknesses: The Hatters give up their fair share on the defensive end, ranking 260th in effective field goal percentage defensively.
X-Factor: Leading scorer Jalen Blackmon will have to be special for Stetson to have a chance.
Prediction: The Hatters may hang around for a couple of minutes with some early threes and a carefree mentality, but eventually UConn will run away.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: