2024 NCAA Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sweet 16 (Thursday)
We’re left with only 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament.
While we didn’t see as many upsets in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, it was still an exciting weekend. After all, we’ll get some really competitive games in the Sweet 16, with most of the favorites advancing.
Below, I’ll break down the two East Region matchups for the Sweet 16. Can we get an upset in one of these games?
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#5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. #1 UConn Huskies
The San Diego Aztecs are back in the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive year. They made it all the way to the Finals last season and are proving it was no fluke.
The Aztecs defeated Yale 85-57 thanks to impressive shooting and intense defense. But after beating a 12-seed and 13-seed, they have to face the UConn Huskies, the best team in the nation.
The Aztecs likely won’t have the same offensive output as their game against Yale. UConn has one of the best defenses in the nation, holding opponents to 31.3% from three and 43.5% from inside the arc. While the Huskies won’t earn a high rate of turnovers, UConn will limit offensive rebounds and typically doesn’t foul at a super high rate. Instead, the Huskies block over 14% of shots taken against them.
On the other hand, SDSU’s defense is also one of the best in the nation. The Aztecs have held opponents to 30.8% from three and 47.7% from inside the arc. They’re just as good as UConn on the defensive end. The difference is UConn’s offense. It’s way more consistent than SDSU. The Huskies have drilled 36.1% from downtown and 59.2% from inside the arc. They’ve also added 36.2% of offensive rebounds and have turned the ball over under 15% of the time.
SDSU’s offensive outburst against Yale was fun. But don’t count on it against UConn.
Bet: UConn -10.5 (-120)
#3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. #2 Iowa State Cyclones
This game should be one of the best on the Sweet 16 slate.
Iowa State has gotten by South Dakota State and Washington State, but now the Cyclones will have to face a seriously dominant Illinois team. Like Iowa State, Illinois hasn’t played against tough competition to begin the tournament, with wins against Morehead State and Duquesne.
In reality, Illinois has looked much more crisp than Iowa State over the first two games. The Fighting Illini have the best offense in the nation, having added 85 points against Morehead State and another 89 points against Duquesne.
However, they’re matched up against Iowa State, who leads the team in defensive efficiency. The Cyclones are really good at forcing turnovers and have held teams to 31.5% from three and 47.2% from downtown. However, due to all of the pressure they use on defense, the Cyclones aren’t good on the defensive glass.
Illinois is pretty good with the ball, allowing only 15% of turnovers. If the Fighting Illini escape the pressure and keep the turnovers down, they should get some really good looks, even against Iowa State.
On the other hand, Iowa State’s offense won’t blow Illinois out of the water. The Fighting Illini won’t add turnovers, and they’re also bad at defending the three. However, Iowa State has only scored 26.5% of its points from three. It’d rather score inside.
Illinois has held teams to 46.5% from inside the arc. Advantage Illinois.
I’m rolling with Illinois to pull off the upset.
Bet: Illinois ML (+102)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: