2024 NCAA Tournament Parlay Odds & Picks (Sweet 16)
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2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Parlay Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Leg 1: Alabama vs. North Carolina: Over 173.5 (-110)
Yes, this total is extremely high, but rightfully so, as the stats and metrics are on our side. Alabama has the best scoring offense in the nation, averaging nearly 91 ppg. On the other hand, they have the 345th scoring defense (out of 351 teams), giving up 81 ppg. This might be the largest contrast in a Sweet 16 team that we’ll ever see, and they may be the perfect “over†team.
As for North Carolina, they are 20th in Scoring offense and 111th in Scoring defense. Another metric aiding this play is Free throws made per game. Both teams are in the top 15 in the country and cannot only draw many fouls but also actually make the free throws. KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo Rating has Alabama as eighth in the nation and North Carolina as 41st. These teams like to run and get the ball into their scorers’ hands with plenty of time on the shot clock.
Metrics aside, these teams have experienced scorers all over the floor. Both teams have senior guards (Alabama’s Mark Sears and North Carolina’s RJ Davis) who can score 30 points on any given night. These two playmakers will have a plethora of three-point shooting specialists on the perimeter, including Harrison Ingram, Cormac Ryan, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. and Rylan Griffen. Armando Bacot provides another dimension in the front court and can score 20 points and grab 20 rebounds in this matchup.
A primetime game on the Lakers’ homecourt in Los Angeles provides a fitting scene for these shooting stars in a big-time matchup.
Leg 2: Clemson vs. Arizona: Arizona Team Toal Over 79.5 (-115)
I was very impressed with Arizona in their win against Dayton last weekend despite not reaching 80 points. The stats from this game seem pretty average, but they don’t tell the full story of how efficient the Wildcats played. This team is more balanced than I previously thought. They held Dayton to 40% from the field and had nine steals and six blocks. We know this is an offensive team, but it appears this team is improving on defense, which can lead to additional possessions and fast break opportunities. KenPom has them at 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ratings.
As for the offense (and our parlay play), they are third in Scoring offense, ninth in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 16th in his Adjusted Tempo Rating. They scored 78 points against Dayton on only 53 field goal attempts (compared to 85 points and 72 field goal attempts against LBSU in Round 1). This can be attributed to Dayton’s very slow tempo (334th in Adjusted Tempo Rating). Clemson isn’t much better (256th), but they may need to play a bit faster in this one if they fall behind early.
Clemson has played well so far, but they might be up against too much firepower in this matchup. If Oumar Ballo can stifle PJ Hall in the paint, these Arizona shooters may have low-stress three-point attempts throughout this game if they can maintain a lead. Look for the Wildcats to put up around 85 points on their way to the Elite Eight.
Leg 3: Creighton vs. Tennessee: Tennessee -3 (-110)
It’s no secret that I love the Vols this year and in this matchup. How can I not? They seemingly have the right formula for success in March. This season, Tennessee has the 50th-ranked scoring offense and the 47th-ranked scoring defense in the NCAA. This type of balance can win them games differently, depending on the team they’re matched up against, allowing them to be multidimensional.
They also have an All-American senior guard in Dalton Knecht, who can score at will. When things get tough during games in March, it’s critical to have an alpha senior scorer who can take over a game by shooting their teams out of a slump. In addition, the Vols have length to ensure they will not fold when facing teams with a lot of size. They’re not the biggest team, but the 6-foot-11 Jonas Aidoo can anchor the defense in the paint, while Knecht (6-foot-6), Josiah-Jordan James (6-foot-6) and a few more taller guards provide length and versatility. The smaller Zakai Zeigler fits in nicely as an on-ball defender with the length of Tennessee on the perimeter. All this, paired with an experienced coach in Rick Barnes, makes Tennessee one of the most dangerous teams remaining.
Tennessee’s relentless defense and versatility will limit the effectiveness of Naylor Scheierman, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Steven Ashworth in this matchup with Creighton. I’m looking for Knecht to bounce back offensively for a big night in Detroit as the Volunteers advance to the Elite Eight.
Total Parlay Odds: +581
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: