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2024 NCAA Tournament: Sleepers Final Four Picks (March Madness)

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It's that time of year again. March Madness has finally returned. One of the most exciting aspects is this week leading up to the tip-off when you fill out your bracket. If you're like me, you will stress over every little decision. If you aren't like me, you will trust my advice and use it to build your brackets. I will discuss some of my favorite sleepers to make the Final Four in this article. 

In this instance, I consider sleepers as 5-seeds or worse. In nine of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, a 7-seed or worse has made the Final Four, with all of the last 10 including a 5-seed or worse. Successfully predicting who that team might be can be the difference between winning and losing your bracket.

Last year, I wrote about San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, and Creighton as my sleepers. Pretty good, right? I don’t know if I will be able to repeat such accuracy, but who knows?

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Sleepers to Make the Final Four

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Florida Gators (7) | +1500

Taking a look at shot volume plus effective field-goal percentage (per Will Warren) – basically a team’s true floor – Florida ranks fourth in the entire field. Fourth! That’s insane. Yes, they did just lose Micah Handlogten, but they still have 6-10 Tyrese Samuel and 6-11 Alex Condon to anchor down the frontcourt.

With Florida’s seventh-ranked offensive rebounding percentage and 40th-ranked free-throw shooting, it makes sense why their offensive floor is so high. They run fast, get a lot of shots off, and have been playing at a high level since they figured out their current rotation.

The biggest roadblock on the street to the Final Four is Houston, but, as EvanMiya notes, Florida is one of the best teams at playing up to their competition. I could see the Gators competing with Houston on the glass and making a surprise Final Four appearance.

New Mexico Lobos (11) | +2200

If you are a KenPom believer (which you should be), this should be the bet for you. Despite winning their conference tournament and finishing 26-9, the Lobos would have been left out of the tournament if not for the auto-bid. With “Young” Pitino at the helm, they have to be hungry to prove why they belong.

New Mexico enters as the 22nd-ranked team in KenPom. Do you know who else ranked 22nd in KenPom before the tournament last year? Florida Atlantic did. I’m not saying these two teams are the same, but I can still see the path.

New Mexico gets up, runs, and has the talent to back a Final Four appearance. They have a reasonable path that favors them, will have a high shot volume with few turnovers, high offensive rebounding, and good perimeter defense. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see New Mexico make it to Phoenix.

Auburn Tigers (4) | +380

The only reason why this isn’t an absolute smash play is because Auburn would presumably have to go through UConn to make it to the Final Four. As the fourth-best team in KenPom with a top-10 offense and defense, their path to Phoenix is quite reasonable.

This feels similar to San Diego State’s path last year. Auburn is a highly-ranked team with Johni Broome to anchor their success and the capacity to take on superior opponents like UConn. Over a third of brackets will have the Huskies making it to the Final Four, so, even if you don’t want to bet this, it is a great game theory approach to have for your bigger bracket pools.

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