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2024 NCAA Tournament South Region Betting Primer (March Madness)

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The South Region can get really interesting this year.

The Houston Cougars are the best team in the region, but Houston just lost the Big 12 Championship to Iowa State by almost 30 points.

Meanwhile, the region also has teams with some of the most highly-regarded players that can push them through the South Region and into the Final Four.

We’ll undoubtedly get some upsets on this side of the bracket. Let’s break it down below!

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2024 NCAA Tournament South Region Betting Primer

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

(1) Houston Cougars

Odds to make the Final Four: +115

Strengths: Houston’s defense ranks second in the nation with an 87.1 defensive efficiency. Opponents have shot just 30% from three and 43.4% from inside the arc against Houston this season.

Weaknesses: Houston has shot just 48.4% from inside the arc.

X-Factor: Jamal Shead. He’s ninth in the NCAA in assist rate and 15th in steal percentage.

Prediction: Sweet 16

(2) Marquette Golden Eagles

Odds to make the Final Four: +525

Strengths: The Golden Eagles have shot 56% from inside the arc and have only turned the ball over 14.3% of the time.

Weaknesses: Marquette rarely gets to the foul line and isn’t very aggressive on the offensive glass. They’ll need to hit their shots consistently to win games.

X-Factor: Tyler Kolek. Marquette’s best player is expected to return to the court for them in the NCAA Tournament.

Prediction: Final Four

(3) Kentucky Wildcats

Odds to make the Final Four: +650

Strengths: The Wildcats have shot 41.2% from three. That’s the best rate in College Basketball.

Weaknesses: Kentucky rarely forces turnovers and has allowed over 30% of offensive rebounds per game this season.

X-Factor: Antonio Reaves. Kentucky needs senior leadership to help with all of the younger players in their first game of the NCAA Tournament.

Prediction: Round of 32

(4) Duke Blue Devils

Odds to win Final Four: +625

Strengths: Duke finished the year with the seventh-best offense in the nation, shooting 37.7% from three and 54.4% from inside the arc.

Weaknesses: Bad losses. Duke lost to Arkansas and Georgia Tech earlier in the year and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament when it mattered the most.

X-Factor: The doubters. Nobody really believes in Duke this year. Except for the analytics and metrics.

Prediction: Elite Eight

(5) Wisconsin Badgers

Odds to make the Final Four: +1500

Strengths: The fight. Wisconsin began the season 16-4 but finished the regular season 19-12 with an 11-9 Big Ten record. Still, they fought in the Big Ten Tournament and made it to the Finals.

Weaknesses: Teams are shooting over 37% from three against the Badgers this season.

X-Factor: Upperclassmen. Wisconsin has four upperclassmen who will lead the program.

Prediction: First Round

(6) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Odds to make the Final Four: +1800

Strengths: The Red Raiders have shot nearly 78% from the foul line this season. They also rank inside the top 25 in offensive efficiency.

Weaknesses: Texas Tech has allowed over 30% of offensive rebounds per game this year.

X-Factor: Getting to the foul line more.

Prediction: Sweet 16

(7) Florida Gators

Odds to make the Final Four: +1600

Strengths: Offensive rebounding. Florida has added 37.5% of offensive rebounds per game this season.

Weaknesses: The Gators have earned only 14.5% of turnovers per game this year.

X-Factor: Tempo. Florida wants to play fast and is typically efficient when playing fast.

Prediction: First Round

(8) Nebraska Cornhuskers

Odds to make the Final Four: +2500

Strengths: Nebraska’s defense. It’s not talked about much. However, the Cornhuskers held teams to 45.2% from inside the arc, which was in the top 15 in all of College Basketball.

Weaknesses: Rebounding. Nebraska is weak on the offensive glass and allows more than 30% of offensive rebounds on the defensive end.

X-Factor: Keisei Tominaga. Once he gets hot, Nebraska is hard to beat.

Prediction: Round of 32

(9) Texas A&M Aggies

Odds to make the Final Four: +5000

Strengths: The Aggies have earned 42% of offensive rebounds. That leads the nation.

Weaknesses: Texas A&M has shot only 28.4% from three and 47% from inside the arc. That’s why the offensive rebounds are so important.

X-Factor: Winning second chances on the glass. Without offensive rebounds, the Aggies will be toast.

Prediction: First Round

(10) Boise State Broncos OR Colorado Buffaloes

Odds to make the Final Four: +5000

Strengths: Colorado has nailed 39.4% from three. On the other hand, Boise State is terrific on the defensive glass, holding teams to 23.1% of offensive rebounds.

Weaknesses: The Buffaloes have turned the ball over 18.2% of the time and have only earned 15.3% of turnovers on defense. On the other hand, the Broncos have allowed 52.1% from inside the arc this season.

X-Factor: The First Game.

Prediction: Round of 32

(11) NC State Wolfpack

Odds to make the Final Four: +6000

Strengths: They can win a tournament.

Weaknesses: Opponents have shot nearly 35% from downtown against the Wolfpack this season.

X-Factor: Fatigue. NC State could be very fatigued after playing five games in five days in the ACC Tournament.

Prediction: First Round

(12) James Madison Dukes

Odds to make the Final Four: +6500

Strengths: Opponents only shot 28.6% from three against James Madison this season.

Weaknesses: The Dukes foul at a very high rate.

X-Factor: James Madison knows how to win. They’re on a 13-game winning streak heading into the NCAA Tournament.

Prediction: Round of 32

(13) Vermont Catamounts

Odds to make the Final Four: +15000

Strengths: The Catamounts have experience in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve also turned the ball over just 13.8% of the time. On defense, Vermont has held opponents to 23.4% of offensive rebounds and typically doesn’t foul much.

Weaknesses: It’s hard for Vermont to earn second chances off offensive rebounds.

X-Factor: Defense.

Prediction: First Round

(14) Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Odds to make the Final Four: +30000

Strengths: Oakland has shot 35.1% from three and 51.7% from inside the arc while also hitting 75.8% from the foul line.

Weaknesses: The only problem? Oakland doesn’t see the foul line nearly as much as its opponents.

X-Factor: Slow the tempo. However, the Golden Grizzlies won’t against Kentucky.

Prediction: First Round

(15) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Odds to make the Final Four: +30000

Strengths: Opponents have hit only 32.2% from three and 48.3% from inside the arc.

Weaknesses: The Hilltoppers turn the ball over 18.3% of the time because of a high tempo.

X-Factor: The turnovers. They can’t happen at that high of a rate.

Prediction: First Round

(16) Longwood Lancers

Odds to make the Final Four: +50000

Strengths: The Lancers have earned 36.9% of offensive rebounds.

Weaknesses: Longwood has allowed teams to shoot 34.6% from three and 50.9% from inside the arc. The Lancers have also shoot just 48.6% from inside the arc and 68.8% from the foul line.

X-Factor: Second chances. Good luck winning the rebounding battle against Houston, though.

Prediction: First Round

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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