2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Picks: Elite 8 (Saturday)

This year’s NCAA Tournament had a chalky feel entering the Sweet 16, as all of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds made the regional semifinals for  just the fifth time since 1979. However, three of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds were upset on Thursday, as North Carolina, Iowa State, and Arizona all lost as favorites. Arizona was the biggest favorite to lose, and continued its recent run of underperforming in the NCAA Tournament, as the Wildcats have lost to a team seeded four or more spots lower than than them in each of their last six NCAA Tournament appearances.

Depending on your NCAA tournament survivor pool’s rules, you may be asked to make just one pick for the entire Elite Eight or one selection each day the Elite Eight is played (Saturday and Sunday). We will assume two different choices are needed, so be on the lookout for tomorrow’s column as well. With three picks remaining, now is a crucial time to focus on surviving and advancing and leaving yourself with enough teams to pick in the Final Four and beyond.

As we have done since the Round of 32, we rank all games in order of most confidence to least confidence and provide a short narrative for each.

Here is a list of odds for both favorites to win their Elite Eight on Saturday (odds courtesy of BettingPros consensus).

TEAM	ODDS
UCONN	-385
Alabama	-150

Best Picks in Order of Most-to-Least Confidence

UConn (-385)

Depending on how many contestant are left in your survivor pools, you may need to be more cautious with this play and just select who you think will win the Alabama/Clemson game, as the Huskies show no signs of slowing down and may need to be saved for the Final Four or national championship. However, if there are few contestants left and many of them have already used UConn, the Huskies are the play as the team far more likely to win their Elite Eight matchup on Saturday.

Per Katie Sharp, in its win over San Diego State, UConn became the third team with 20 or more offensive rebounds and 10-plus 3-point field goals in a game in the Sweet 16 or later. The Huskies were also the sixth team in the last 50 seasons to win a Sweet 16 game by 30-plus points, and scored 1.30 points per possession, which was San Diego State’s most allowed in any game since 2019. Illinois is simply not disruptive enough defensively to pull the upset of such a balanced offensive team, as the Fighting Illini rank 84th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 360th in turnover rate forced (12.3%).

Alabama (-150)

Those that still have plenty of opponents to edge out in survivor pools will have the unenviable task of selecting the winner of this Alabama/Clemson game, as the Huskies remain the smarter pick to use in later rounds. For the record, we are not keen on the Crimson Tide in this matchup, and if forced to make a selection on this game, we would choose the underdog Tigers.

Clemson has a similar preparation for this game as it did when facing Arizona, as both the Wildcats and Crimson Tide are similar in their up-tempo attacks and willingness to play in transition. Alabama entered its Sweet 16 game against North Carolina averaging 87.1 possessions per game, the 4th-most in Division I. However, Clemson is already used to Alabama’s crazy tempo, as it beat the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa 85-77 in late November. In that loss, Alabama had its third-worst game in terms of high quality shot rating, per ShotQuality, and its second-worst game in rim efficiency. Tigers forward PJ Hall dominated Alabama’s frontcourt for a team-high 21 points in that game, and the Crimson Tide were foolish to only double the post on 4.5% of Clemson’s post possessions.

The Tigers have allowed their first three opponents to shoot just 14-75 from 3-point range thus far, and while we do not expect Alabama to shoot that poorly, Clemson is prepared to throw some new defensive wrinkles (i.e. a 2-3 zone it used in spurts against Arizona) at the Crimson Tide, and we are more confident in the Tigers than Alabama in making adjustments from their first meeting.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.