2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Picks: Elite 8 (Sunday)

This year’s NCAA Tournament had a chalky feel entering the Sweet 16, as all of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds made the regional semifinals for  just the fifth time since 1979. And while seeding held true in the Midwest Region with an Elite 8 matchup between the top two seeds (No. 1 Purdue and No. 2 Tennessee), we get an Elite 8 matchup that few predicted in the South Region, as ACC rivals N.C. State and Duke won as underdogs on Friday to set up a rubber match with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

Depending on your NCAA tournament survivor pool’s rules, you may be asked to make just one pick for the entire Elite Eight or one selection each day the Elite Eight is played (Saturday and Sunday). We will assume two different choices are needed, and we made our choices for Saturday’s Elite 8 matchups with our first preview. With three picks remaining, now is a crucial time to focus on surviving and advancing and leaving yourself with enough teams to pick in the Final Four and beyond.

As we have done since the Round of 32, we rank all games in order of most confidence to least confidence and provide a short narrative for each.

Here is a list of odds for both favorites to win their Elite Eight on Sunday (odds courtesy of BettingPros consensus).

TEAM	ODDS
Duke	-265
Purdue	-165

Best Picks in Order of Most-to-Least Confidence

Duke (-265)

It is not often that we have the flexibility of picking a No. 4 seed in an Elite 8 matchup with more confidence than a No. 1 seed, but regardless of who you think will win the Purdue vs. Tennessee matchup, Duke (or whoever you think will win the South Region) is the smartest survivor pool play considering the winner will be a certain underdog in the Final Four.

Duke blitzed N.C. State in Raleigh by 15 points earlier this month, and has been arguably the most impressive team outside of UConn left in the tournament with convincing wins over Vermont and James Madison, and a narrow win over a Houston team that spent much of the season ranked atop the AP poll. The familiarity between these teams having met twice this season could tilt the advantage to the underdog Wolfpack, but the Blue Devils are the more balanced team ranking in the top 13 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, and we are fading N.C. State, even though it is conjuring up the same underdog feelings it had in its miracle run to the 1983 National Championship under Jim Valvano.

Purdue (-165)

Purdue is likely to be a bigger favorite against the Duke/N.C. State winner in the Final Four than it is in its current matchup with Tennessee, as the Volunteers were in play for a No. 1 seed until their surprising 17-point loss to Mississippi State in their first game of the SEC Tournament. However, the Boilermakers have looked most impressive with a +79 point differential through their first three wins of this tournament, and are doing exactly what they need to do to win in March, playing defense at a top-25 level this month, and shooting from 3-point range at the best clip (41.0%) of any team in the country all season. Tennessee is still prone to scoring droughts with few consistent offensive threats outside of Dalton Knecht. And if Santiago Vescovi misses a second straight game with the flu, that is a big loss for the Volunteers, who need all the depth they can get against a Purdue team that shoots free throws at a top-13 rate.

Purdue has covered the spread in all three NCAA Tournament games thus far, and is 7-1-1 ATS against ranked opponents. The Boilermakers covered as 3.5-point favorites in a four-point win in Maui against Tennessee in November, and we feel they have improved more since then than Tennessee has.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.