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2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Picks: Round 1 (Friday)

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In yesterday’s column, we discussed the differences between an NCAA tournament survivor pool and a more traditional NFL survivor pool. Many of the strategies are different, and contestants should be aware of all rules and nuances before entering. An NCAA survivor pool takes much more future planning, whereas one can win an NFL survivor pool by taking a week-to-week approach.

Tools and strategy advice from PoolGenius to maximize your edge in 2024 NCAA tournament survivor contests >>

Though no games have officially been played yet, we are giving you our planning advice well before the first set of games so you can plan accordingly. And if you do not feel like waiting until the First Four games conclude to make your selections, you should be able to find great picks from the remaining 12 games.

Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks: two from the First Round (one for each day played), two from the Second Round (one for each day played), and one from the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and National Championship.

Each round, we will provide our analysis broken down by the following categories: Best Picks, Favorites on Upset Alert, and Teams That Should be Saved for Later Use.

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2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Picks

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their Round 1 matchups on Friday (odds courtesy of BettingPros consensus).

TEAM MONEYLINE ODDS
UConn -10000
Houston -5000
Baylor -1100
Marquette -1100
Auburn -850
Duke -800
Alabama -500
San Diego State -278
Wisconsin -240
Saint Mary’s -230
TCU -160
Florida Atlantic -140
New Mexico -125
Nebraska -115
Florida TBD
Purdue TBD

Best Picks

Baylor (-1100), Auburn (-850), San Diego State (-278)

The Baylor Bears are playing an experience Colgate squad that has reached the NCAA Tournament in five of the last six seasons, but the Raiders have not come within seven points of a first round upset in that span. Bears head coach Scott Drew tends to use different zone looks throughout a game to confuse opponents, but may catch the Raiders scouting department off guard, as heavy zone usage is likely not a smart tactic against a Colgate team that made 38.6% of its threes in Patriot League play. The Bears actually shoot the three better than Colgate this year, ranking sixth nationally, and their athleticism should be too much for Colgate to handle over 40 minutes.

Speaking of athleticism, there are not too many teams more athletic top-to-bottom than the Auburn Tigers, who have multiple future NBA players on their roster. Auburn comes into this game with the momentum of winning the SEC Tournament, and while Yale is a conference tournament champion itself, Auburn’s grind of winning three games against top-50 KenPom teams in three days is much more impressive. Auburn defends the 3-point line at a top-nine rate nationally, and is the nation’s best interior defense, which will come in handy when facing a a Bulldogs squad that gets 54.9% of their offense (59th-highest) from inside the arc.

San Diego State has a murderous path of playing Auburn and UConn in its next two games if seeding holds, so this is the perfect opportunity to use the Aztecs in survivor pools. San Diego State returned 46.9% of the minutes from players from last year’s national runner up team, and the Aztecs did not suffer a hangover from losing in the national championship, as they finished the regular season ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency for the third straight year. They play a UAB team who hit lighting in a bottle in the AAC Tournament, but the Blazers were fortunate not to have to face Florida Atlantic in the final after the Owls were upset by Temple. UAB had an issue with ball security, turning the ball over at the third-highest rate in league play, while San Diego State forced turnovers at the highest rate (18.5%) in the Mountain West. The Aztecs are 4-2 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games, and we expect them to win comfortably in this opening round.

Favorites on Upset Alert

Duke (-800), Alabama (-500), Wisconsin (-240), Saint Mary’s (-230), TCU (-160), Florida Atlantic (-140), New Mexico (-125), Nebraska (-115), Florida

Teams That Should be Saved for Later Use

UConn (-10000), Houston (-5000), Marquette (-1100), Purdue

UConn, Houston, Marquette, and Purdue are all Elite 8 contenders, at the very least. So while no team from this list is in danger of a first-round upset, keep them handy for the later rounds when they are still prohibitive favorites while fewer teams are available to choose from.

Check out all of our 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

More 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Pool Strategy & Picks

Below we provide strategy, advice, and picks to create the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket. And be sure to use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket and take down your contest!

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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