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2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Picks: Round 1 (Thursday)

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So you thought survivor pools only applied to the NFL season? On the contrary, survivor contests are widely popular for the NCAA tournament. They offer an alternative way for those whose brackets habitually get busted early to stay involved in the action.

Much like the NFL version, NCAA tournament survivor pools require one to pick one team each round, and once you select a team, you cannot use them again. However, the similarities end there, as the NCAA version’s strategies differ vastly.

Tools and strategy advice from PoolGenius to maximize your edge in 2024 NCAA tournament survivor contests >>

One needs to remember that you could lose your entry without ever making a losing pick but instead run out of teams from which to choose. All teams in NFL survivor pools are available for selection except the ones already chosen. In NCAA tournament survivor pools, as teams get eliminated, the collection of teams shrinks. Thus, if you make it to the national championship unscathed, but the two teams are UConn and Houston, you are out if you have already used both. That is just one example of a different thinking process for navigating these tricky contests.

Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks: two from the First Round (one for each day played), two from the Second Round (one for each day played), and one from the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and National Championship.

Each round, we will provide our analysis broken down by the following categories: Best Picks, Favorites on Upset Alert, and Teams That Should be Saved for Later Use.

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2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Picks

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their Round 1 matchups on Thursday (odds courtesy of BettingPros consensus).

NCAA Tournament Moneyline Odds for Round 1 (Thursday) ODDS
Tennessee -4505
Arizona -2801
Iowa State -2101
Kentucky -1050
Creighton -850
Illinois -800
BYU -400
Kansas -310
Gonzaga -270
Texas Tech -210
Michigan State -120
Nevada -115
South Carolina -110
Washington State -110
North Carolina TBD
Texas TBD

Best Picks

Illinois (-800), BYU (-400), Texas Tech (-210)

If you think that the UConn Huskies are the clear class of the NCAA Tournament and the most likely to represent the East Region in the Final Four, then there will likely not be as many opportunities to use the Illinois Fighting Illini in survivor pools going forward. Illinois has one of the most efficient offenses the Big Ten has seen this century, and it can utilize the elite positional size of Marcus Domask in post-up situations, or the slashing ability of Terrance Shannon, who is two games removed from scoring a Big Ten Conference Tournament record 40 points. Morehead State did lead the Ohio Valley in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense, but the Fighting Illini are a different animal, and Domask and Shannon have combined for 116 points in the last two games.

The BYU Cougars returned production at a top-30 rate from last year’s squad, and that experience paid huge dividends in them finding success in their first season in the Big 12. BYU is a nightmare to defend, shooting 3-pointers at the second-highest rate in the country, and it has six players that made 36-plus three on the season. Duquesne enters with the nation’s fifth-longest winning streak (eight games), but it did not face many teams on a nightly basis in the A-10 that can space the floor like the Cougars. BYU may not be favored in any game going forward with potential matchups against Illinois and Iowa State if seeding holds, so we are taking advantage of that fact and looking hard at using the Cougars early in survivor pools.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are the second No. 6 seed that we would suggest using early in survivor pools, as they face an N.C. State team that should be running on fumes after winning five games in five days to be crowned NCAA champions. The Wolfpack’s ACC Tournament Championship is reminiscent of Georgetown’s surprise run to the Big East Conference Tournament title in 2021, but those Hoyas won four games in four days, and were then blown out 96-73 by Colorado in their first NCAA Tournament game. Texas Tech battled injuries all season but still managed a top-four finish in a rugged Big 12, and we are not paying much attention to a 23-point loss to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament, as it played that game without two of its top-six scorers, who also happen to be its leading rebounders. With Darrion Williams and Warren Washington back in the fold this week, Texas Tech should prove to be too physical for N.C. State.

Favorites on Upset Alert

Kansas (-310), Gonzaga (-270), Michigan State (-120), Nevada (-115), South Carolina (-110), Washington State (-110)

Teams That Should be Saved for Later Use

Tennessee (-4505), Arizona (-2801), Iowa State (-2101), Kentucky (-1050), Creighton (-850), North Carolina

Tennessee, Arizona, Iowa State, Kentucky, Creighton, and North Carolina are all Elite 8 contenders, at the very least. So while no team from this list is in danger of a first-round upset, keep them handy for the later rounds when they are still prohibitive favorites while fewer teams are available to choose from.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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