2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Picks: Round 2 (Saturday)

Author imageby Mike Spector | @MikeSpector01|Mar 22, 2024
Pelle Larsson

Four double-digit seeds won on Thursday, and there was no greater upset than No. 14 Oakland beating No. 3 Kentucky as 13-point underdogs. So if Duquesne beating BYU in the second tip of the day didn’t already cost you your perfect bracket, the Golden Grizzlies’ upset of the Wildcats likely did.

While Kentucky’s loss may have already forced you to rip up your bracket, you hopefully planned a path in your NCAA Tournament survivor pools where you were planning to save Kentucky for later in the tournament. If you did, it is likely you instead selected other teams that seemingly had different hopes for deep tournament runs.

First-round losses by Kentucky and BYU breed new opportunities (if you are still alive in survivor pool competitions) to use teams one never thought they would use at any stage. Will you continue to ride N.C. State’s momentum after its miracle ACC Tournament run (it had +10000 odds to win that tournament and earn an automatic bid) now that it is playing Oakland instead of Kentucky?

Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks: two from the First Round (one for each day played), two from the Second Round (one for each day played) and one from the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four and National Championship.

Starting with this round, we will rank all eight games from most to least confident and provide a short narrative for each.

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Sports Betting Advice

2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Picks

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their Round 2 matchups on Saturday.

(odds courtesy of BettingPros consensus)

TEAM MONEYLINE ODDS
Illinois -530
Arizona -470
Iowa State -335
Tennessee -270
N.C. State -250
Creighton -245
Gonzaga -190
North Carolina -175

Best Picks In Order of Most-to-Least Confidence

Arizona (-470)

Arizona faces Dayton in the Round of 32, a team that was down 17 points to Nevada with less than eight minutes to go on Thursday. While the Flyers’ 24-4 run to end the game was remarkable, they should not expect to hold the third-highest-scoring team in Arizona to droughts consistently and for that stretch of time. Look for the Wildcats to continue to shred the sting of last year’s opening-round loss to Princeton and advance to the Sweet 16.

Illinois (-530)

Since Valentine’s Day, Duquesne’s defense ranks sixth in Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The defense did a masterful job in holding BYU to 67 points and eight 3-pointers in an upset win. However, Illinois’ offense ranks second in adjusted offensive efficiency in that span, and the Fighting Illini presents matchup problems for Duquesne that BYU didn’t with the post-up and slashing ability of two elite guards with size in Terrance Shannon and Marcus Domask.

Iowa State (-335)

The Cyclones are rarely going to win pretty, but no team left in the tournament, maybe outside of Houston, plays better defense than them. Iowa State is a much more battle-tested team coming out of the Big 12 than Washington State is out of the Pac-12, as the Cyclones own wins over Houston (twice), Kansas, Texas and Baylor. Iowa State also ranks first by a wide margin in Haslametric’s near proximity defense rate. How frequently they prevent paint touches and shots near the rim will pay huge dividends against Washington State’s mammoth frontcourt.

Tennessee (-270)

The Tennessee-Texas matchup is the Rick Barnes Bowl, as Barnes spent 17 seasons as the Longhorns’ head coach. While Texas looked impressive, holding Colorado State to 44 points and 0.66 points per possession, Tennessee has a much more explosive offense, led by SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht. However, the Volunteers’ offense is much more than “give Knecht the ball and get out of the way,” as they assist on 61.1% of their made field goals (the 13th-most in the country).

N.C. State (-250)

N.C. State entered the tournament with doubts if it would have anything left in the tank after winning four games in four days in the ACC Tournament. Those doubts were answered in an 80-67 drubbing of Texas Tech, where the Wolfpack scored 1.19 points per possession and attempted 12 more free throws than the physical Red Raiders. N.C. State typically presses at one of the highest rates in the country but backed off of it much on Thursday, given the need to rest some tired legs. The Wolfpack ranked 12th in the ACC in percentage of their points coming from the 3-point line. However, they shot it at better than a 34% clip and will likely need to do so again against Oakland’s tricky extended matchup zone.

Gonzaga (-190)

Gonzaga faces a hobbled and tired Kansas team that played just six players ocer three minutes in Thursday’s track meet against Samford. The Bulldogs heard all week how McNeese State was a dangerous No. 12 seed that was ripe for an upset after being one of four teams to win 30 or more games this year, and they used that as bulletin board material in an 86-65 rout on Thursday. If Mark Few can turn this game into a track meet as Samford did on Thursday, the Jayhawks likely are not deep enough to withstand another 40 minutes of that hectic pace with such a limited bench.

Creighton (-245)/North Carolina (-175)

We are lumping Creighton and North Carolina into a similar “not confident and would avoid picking in survivor pools” category.

Creighton has just one day to face Dana Altman’s tricky morphing zone defenses after not facing much zone all year from any Big East opponent. While the Bluejays seemingly have a couple of zone busters in Steven Ashworth and Baylor Scheierman, the Ducks do an excellent job of rolling their perimeter coverage to their opponents’ best shooters. In addition, their defense has allowed 68 or fewer points in four games during an active five-game winning streak.

Meanwhile, North Carolina seemingly has a massive home-court advantage facing Michigan State in Charlotte, N.C., as the Tar Heels are now 35-2 SU in the NCAA Tournament when playing in their home state. However, Tom Izzo’s teams always seem to play their best basketball in March, and we would oddly feel more comfortable backing North Carolina in a potential Sweet 16 matchup against Saint Mary’s or Alabama than we would here.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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