2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Picks: Sweet 16 (Thursday)
Compared to last year’s NCAA Tournament when just two No. 1 seeds reached the Sweet 16, who were joined by the likes of Princeton, Florida Atlantic, and Arkansas, this year’s March Madness has had a much chalkier feel to it. Seven of the eight teams playing on Thursday are from a power conference and none is lower than a No. 6 seed. The lone team not from a power conference is San Diego State, who happened to be last year’s national runner-up.
Sports betting analyst Matt Jacob has highlighted various NCAA Tournament trends thus far, including favorites going 15-1 SU on Saturday and Sunday alone. Therefore, with a dearth of bracket-shattering upsets, it is likely that NCAA Tournament survivor pools have plenty of contestants alive entering the Sweet 16.
2024 NCAA Tournament Survivor Picks
Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks: two from the First Round (one for each day played), two from the Second Round (one for each day played), and one from the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and National Championship.
As we did in the Round of 32, we rank all four Thursday games in order of most confidence to least confidence and provide a short narrative for each.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their Sweet 16 matchups on Thursday (odds courtesy of BettingPros consensus).
| TEAM | ODDS |
| UConn | -650 |
| Arizona | -305 |
| North Carolina | -190 |
| Iowa State | -130 |
Best Picks in Order of Most-to-Least Confidence
UConn (-650)
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, just five teams won all six tournament games by double digits en route to a national championship. UConn accomplished that feat last season, and look capable of doing so again after beating Stetson and Northwestern by a combined 56 points. UConn is the only team (per DraftKings) to have shorter than -105 odds to win its region, as its -230 odds entering the Sweet 16 is a testament to how dominant oddsmakers think the Huskies are.
With seemingly plenty of winnable games along the way to the Final Four or even a second straight national championship, the Huskies should likely be saved in survivor pools for later use. However, in terms of confidence, we do not envision a scenario where the Aztecs beat the Huskies, especially since both teams return a similar amount of production from last year’s national title game that UConn won by 17 points.
Arizona (-305)
Arizona had no business losing its first round game that was played on the West Coast to No. 15 Princeton last year, but it was always difficult to envision the Wildcats winning a national championship with a defense that barely finished inside KenPom’s top 40. However, Arizona is a bonafide national title contender after holding Long Beach State and Dayton to 0.83 and 0.94 points per possession respectively, while also continuing its hot shooting from the regular season by making 21-of-53 3-point attempts (39.6%) through the first two rounds.
If seeding holds, Arizona will likely be in coin-flip games or underdogs in every game going forward to some combination of North Carolina (Elite Eight), UConn (Final Four), or Houston/Purdue (National Championship). Thus, now is a great opportunity to use the Wildcats, as Clemson would be in a world of trouble against Arizona if star forward PJ Hall is once again in foul trouble, as he has been through the first two games where he totaled just 39 minutes.
North Carolina (-190)
There is so much 3-point variance with Alabama that No. 1 seed North Carolina is third out of four teams in our confidence rankings. The Crimson Tide can beat anyone in the country when their outside shots are falling. We do like the Tar Heels’ experience, as the average age on their roster is over 22 years old, making them the sixth-oldest roster in Division I.
North Carolina is more than just the 1-2 punch of RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, especially when players like Harrison Ingram are shooting 50% from the 3-point line in the tournament thus far. The Tar Heels allowed an ACC-best 30.1% from beyond the arc in league play, which will help against Alabama’s spread offensive attack. When the brackets came out, we identified UNC as the most likely No. 1 seed to lose first, and we are suggesting to avoid the Tar Heels for those who have Arizona still available to use in survivor pools.
Iowa State (-130)
This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense. Iowa State ranks first in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (and second in terms of turnover rate). Illinois features one of the Big Ten’s most historically efficient offenses. Given Iowa State’s propensity to go into long scoring droughts, we are unsure if it deserves to be favored in this game.
The Fighting Illini are more than capable of pulling off the upset given the advantage they figure to have on the offensive glass. Illinois ranks 16th in offensive rebounding percentage while Iowa State ranks 196th in defensive rebounding rate.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NHL Prop Betting Cheat Sheet
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NCAA Tournament Parlay Odds & Picks (Sweet 16)
- 2024 NCAA Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sweet 16
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.